This article is a translation of ESPN reporter Bobby Marks and does not represent the views of translators and platforms.
The Jazz's playoff exit has almost certainly gone into the countdown to a lineup reshuffle.
The Jazz have largely continued last year's roster this season without making major changes, and they don't think they will repeat the mistakes they made last year with the Los Angeles Clippers series.
But losing to the missing Doncic Lone Rangers in the first three games of the first round (two defeats) proved them wrong.
The offseason will face one of the most important issues in the history of the team. Do the Jazz want to try to trade Domicher or Gobert, or will they completely rebuild the trade?
So what about the future of head coach Quinn Snyder?
Current lineup
Lineup status: Turbulent
In March 2021, the Jazz are moving in the right direction. Mitchell, Gobert and Conley were named All-Stars, and the Jazz are on their way to the best in the NBA.
This distinction puts them in eighth place in ESPN's annual strength rankings as the team is in very good health for the foreseeable future. Gobert and Mitchell have just signed a five-year maximum-salary extension (Conley eventually renewed for three years), and it's time for Jazz management to continue to build on the right role players around them.
The turning point was the unfortunate loss to the Clippers without Leonard, and the problems with the winning 52-game roster on the defensive end were exposed.
"We've had a tough look on many fronts on the defensive end tonight, but I'm certainly not going to jump to conclusions," Snyder said after his sixth loss to the Clippers last year.
The Jazz didn't break up the lineup, but decided to start all over again, and then signed veteran Rudy Guy and Whiteside, who used the playoff loss as a learning experience and motivation to move forward.
The Jazz have had a decent 49 wins in the regular season this season, but they have again underperformed in the playoffs. In the end, the team stopped in the first round, and several early warning signals appeared in the process.
The Jazz ranked 23rd in net efficiency at key moments of the season. They lost 6 games in the fourth quarter with a 10+ point lead (tied for the most with the Knicks).
The root of their problem is poor outside defense, which is the result of the opponent's establishment of an advantage by constantly passing the ball. Mitchell struggled in the final moments of the game and did not help the team.
According to Second Spectrum, the Jazz's unreasonable three-point shots accounted for 83.5 percent, ranking third in the league this season. Last year, they ranked 29th in the data.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Mitchell shot just 33 percent from the field in key moments, which is third-to-last among 37 players who tried 50 shots in the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter or within 5 points of overtime. He hit just six of his 32 three-point attempts and shot just 25 percent from at least 10 feet away.
As a result, defensive flaws and Mitchell's struggles at critical times in the game were once again staged in the first round of the series.
The Lone Ranger has the highest number of three-point shots (41.6) and second in three-point shooting (15.2). In the second and third games of the game, Mitchell shot just 25 percent from the field in the final five minutes of the game.
To make matters worse, on the offensive end, the Jazz's overly reliant on three-pointers in the regular season (they rank second in the regular season in terms of hits and shots) suddenly lost power in the playoffs. In the series losing to the Lone Rangers, they ranked third from the bottom in the playoffs for the average number of three-point shots per game (28.8) and first from the bottom in three-point shots per game (8.0).
This year's offseason faces more problems than last year.
Being knocked out of the playoffs for two consecutive years shows that teams need to make changes. But where did jazz start? Are team owners willing to spend time and money on this lineup that was out of the first round?
If the Jazz retain the existing 11-player roster, it will once again be one of the highest paid teams in the NBA.
As part of the Conley deal, their 2022 first-round picks go to the Memphis Grizzlies, while the 2024 protected first-round picks go to the Thunder to dump Derek Favors' $20 million contract. The jazz's earliest first-round picks to trade will not be available until 2026, but only if the first round of the top 10 in 2024 is sent to the Thunder. In the second round of the draft, they also have only three draft picks (2025, 2026 and 2029).
In addition to Mitchell and Gobert, their tradable players include Conley, Clarkson, O'Neal, Guy and Bogdanovic. The team's remaining players include Hernangomez, Jared Butler, Alexander Walker and Yuduka Azubük. Five of those players dropped out of the regular rotation in the playoffs, and only Hernan Gomez had meaningful playing time.
The Jazz also has a $6.3 million mini-middle-class exception and a $9.8 million deal exception to use, but that comes with a luxury tax. Note that Guy signed the same mid-class exception last offseason, but didn't make a playoff appearance.
If the Jazz want to regroup, they can start with all-Star players.
Mitchell and Gobert
Considering that the two have just signed a five-year maximum salary extension and won't be free agents until the 2025 offseason (both have player options for the 2025-26 season), splitting up the Mitchell and Gobert duo shouldn't be the first choice.
The contract status of the two players and their impact on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends should make the Jazz want to build a team around them, rather than break up their partnership.
Mitchell averaged 25.9 points per game during the regular season, the second time in his career that he averaged at least 25 points per game — and the other Jazz players who did so were Carl Malone, Adrian Dantley and Pete Maravic. On the defensive end, however, he tied for 256th place based on Five Thirty Eight's RAPTOR data metrics.
When Mitchell struggled defensively, Gobert was the Jazz's defensive workhorse.
When Gobert was on the floor, the Jazz ranked first in defensive efficiency. When he left the court, they were tied for 21st with the Los Angeles Lakers. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Gobert ranks third in shooting percentage from the basket, and when he assists, he has the lowest allowed scoring efficiency per break (0.84).
Objectively speaking, Gobert was targeted by the Clippers and Lone Rangers' small-ball tactics in the series, but this was more caused by the Jazz's poor outside defense and the requirement for a 7-foot-1-inch center to provide assistance.
Gobert has an advantage on the defensive end, but is the team's weakness on the offensive end.
Gobert has no outside scoring means and relies too heavily on second-shot chances (28.7 percent on second offense, the most of any player) and on picking high balls (third-most).
His game-advantages — covering offense and blocking shots — were marginalized in the series against the Lone Rangers. According to Second Spectrum, when Gobert served as cover in the regular season, the Jazz averaged 1.04 points per block. That statistic dropped to 0.85 points in the first round of the series. Gobert has ranked in the top ten shots after blocking this season, but has only hit five goals in the series against the Lone Rangers.
Can Mitchell and Gobert coexist? If the answer is yes, how will this lineup improve? If not, which of the two would jazz choose?
This question will define the Jazz's offseason.
Offseason salary cap breakdown and lineup depth distribution
Jazz 2022-23 salary breakdown
(Table data: Gobert: about 38.2 million; Mitchell: about 38.4 million; Conley: about 22.7 million; Bogdanovic: about 19.6 million; Clarkson: about 13.4 million; O'Neal: 9.2 million; Guy: about 6.2 million; Walker: about 5 million; Azubuk: about 2.2 million: Butler: about 1.6 million; Hernangomez: about 7.4 million, non-guaranteed; free agent: about 9.3 million; guaranteed salary: 148 million)
Excluding Hernan Gomez's $7.4 million non-guaranteed contract, the Jazz's contract with 10 players totals $149 million, just enough to reach the luxury tax line.
If Hernan Gomez is dropped, the Jazz will cross the luxury tax line once their lineup is full.
They will have a $6.4 million mini-middle-class exception.
Jazz 2022-23 lineup depth map
(Table information: Point guard: Conley, Butler; point guard: Mitchell, Clarkson, Walker; small forwards: O'Neal, Hernan Gomez, Sneed; big forwards: Bogdanovic, Gay; center: Gobert, Azubke)
Lineup requirements
1. Forward players
2. Substitute point guard and center
Resources that can be leveraged
Exceptions: $6.4 million (mid-tier) and $9.8 million (transactions)
2. Expired contract: more than $30 million
3. Cash: $6.3 million can be sent or received in a transaction
Key date
1. June 29: Eric Pascal ($2.1 million), Trent Forrester ($1.8 million) and Snyder ($50,000) are eligible for qualifying offers. Pascal averaged a career-low 12.7 minutes per game in the regular season.
2. June 30: Jazz could get some tax breaks on Hernan Gomez's $7.3 million non-guaranteed contract. The move will save jazz more than $10 million in tax fines. Hernangomez, who was acquired on the trade deadline, averaged 6.2 points per game for 17.5 minutes and shot 43.8 percent from three-point range. If he's cut, the Jazz will get a veteran base salary exception.
Limitations
The Jazz gave their 2022 first-round pick to the Grizzlies and a protected first-round pick for the Thunder in 2024, 2025 and 2026. The earliest future first-round pick they could send was two years after the Thunder received the draft pick.
2. Mitchell's contract has a 15% trading margin. Since the bonus will exceed the maximum salary of its contract, the bonus is void in the transaction.
Eligible for early renewal
1. Bogdanovic will enter the final year of his contract and will be eligible for a renewal. The striker is shooting 39 percent from three-point range this season, making him in the top 15 of all players. If the Jazz extend him for more than two seasons or get a raise of more than 5 percent, he will not be eligible to be traded for up to six months. The Jazz have a 45-24 record this season in the games he has played in.
2. Clarkson, last year's best sixth man of the year, signed a four-year contract in 2020, which is about to enter its third year, and he is also eligible for a renewal. Because Clarkson has a $14.3 million player option in 2023-24, the Jazz could choose to extend his contract for another three seasons or cancel the player option to re-sign for four years starting in 2022-23. Clarkson has averaged 16 points per game this season and is shooting 38.9 percent from three-point range in the playoffs.
3. Hernangomez (if his contract is guaranteed) and Alexander Walker are also eligible for contract extensions.
NBA Draft
The Jazz did not have draft picks in either the first or second round of this year's draft.
As part of the Conley deal, their own first round was sent to the Grizzlies.
Starting with the Favors trade last offseason, the Jazz will first send the Thunder the first round of protected Top 10 in 2024, Top 10 in 2025 or Top 8 in 2026. The Jazz are also limited to sending out future second rounds in the trade.
Their only draft picks are second-round picks for 2025, 2026 and 2029.
Originally written by Bobby Marks
Compilation: Poetic