In the brutally competitive NBA, the perfect youth training system and a steady supply of talent have created a "myth" that the probability of players being eliminated in three seasons is close to 60%, in addition to the stars that fans are familiar with, role players want to survive in a league of more than 400 people, and mastering a skill is often more advantageous than being able to do everything but not refining.
Regarding the salary distribution in NBA teams, most of them follow the multi-labor model, the player's own strength and the commercial value generated behind it determine the size of the contract, such as Curry, who helped the Golden State Warriors market value increase 13 times in ten years, and has twice won more than 200 million US dollars in his career; LeBron James currently has a salary of 387 million US dollars, ranking first in the league.
Take stock of eight stars who are expected to earn the top salary in the offseason:
8. Zach-Lavin is expected to be $210 million in five years
Regular season stats: 24.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 47.6 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three-point range.
Playoff stats: 19.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6 assists, 42.9% shooting, 37.5% three-point shooting
In the summer of 2017, the Timberwolves in order to improve the team's defensive intensity of Jimmy Butler, and then packaged Lavine and Dunn to the Bulls, at this time Chicago was in the middle of the group, LaVine with excellent scoring skills to sit in the core of the team, and signed a four-year, $78 million contract extension with the Bulls in the 2018 offseason, and then began the road to promotion to stardom.
As the focus of the team's training, LaVine's statistics continued to rise in the four seasons after joining the Bulls, and last season, with a 41.9% three-point shooting rate, he efficiently cut the superstar data of 27.4 points, 5 rebounds and 4.9 assists, and was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his career. At this time, the Bulls management had tried to come up with a four-year contract extension worth $141 million, but the latter's brokerage team directly refused, on the grounds that Lavine's current strength is worth a super salary.
Before the start of the season, the Bulls made a comprehensive upgrade to the roster, recruiting DeRozan, Lonzo Ball and Caruso in the free market, and after a season of "high and low", the team finally reached the playoffs as the sixth in the East, and DeRozan's excellent performance made the Lavine team title gradually become in name only.
After the Bulls were easily eliminated by the Bucks in the playoffs, the sluggish performance of the LaVine series once again pushed him to the forefront, and titles such as "pseudostar", "soft egg that can't fight hard battles" and "the life of the second boss" appeared endlessly.
Although the Bulls management has announced more than once that it will keep LaVine in full force, it will follow up with the following sentence: We will also keep an eye on the free agent market! This is enough to prove that the team is very hesitant to renew LaVine's super salary, after all, the risk of leaving a star who has not yet proven his strength in the playoffs is indeed very large, but given that there are very few superstars available in the free market this summer, the Bulls are still likely to renew LaVine with a maximum salary.
7. Zion-Williamson is expected to be $186 million in five years
Season stats: None
Before the 2019 draft, Zion Williamson's name has resounded throughout the United States, 1.98 meters tall, 130 kilograms of weight, vertical bounce but easy to exceed 115 centimeters, with amazing physical fitness, Zion in college games are full, and even James, Westbrook, Curry and other NBA stars will come to watch his game, and finally become a champion without any suspense.
In his rookie season, Zion played only 24 games due to injury, but averaged 22.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, and his highly ornamental playing style won the recognition of fans. In the 20-21 season, Healthy Zion showed his offensive talent to fans in an all-round way, averaging 27 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, and was named to the All-Star starting lineup for the first time in his career, stealing all the limelight on the field as a talented player.
Despite Zion's excellent performance last season, the Pelicans still struggle to get rid of the title of weak team in the West, and early withdrawal from the playoff competition allowed Zion to undergo right-foot repair surgery at the end of the season and has been absent since then. According to statistics, the career attendance rate of third-year rookie Zion is less than 40%, and the excessive weight makes Zion's heavily injured ankle very fragile, although he can already complete the big windmill dunk, but the label of "glass man" physique is difficult to be removed.
This summer, Zion is eligible to complete an early contract extension with the Pelicans, under the terms of the league's salary agreement, he can get a five-year contract of $185.7 million, the Pelicans are currently open to Zion's contract renewal, if you choose to renew with the maximum salary, you will inevitably add restrictions on the number of games, average data and other restrictions in the contract, just like the Philadelphia 76ers renewed Embiid at the time.
6, Bill is expected to be 246 million US dollars in 5 years
Regular season stats: 23.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 45.1% shooting, 30% three-point shooting
In the 2012 draft, Beal was selected by the Wizards with the third pick in the first round, and during this decade his partner was changed from Bill to Westbrook, and now Porzingis, his position on the team has changed from second-in-command to leader. In these ten seasons, Beal has been selected to the All-Team once, three All-Stars, and averaged 22.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
This offseason, Beal will have $36.4 million in player options, and if he chooses to step out of the contract, he can sign a five-year super-salary contract with the Wizards worth $246 million under the league's "veteran salary cap clause", and if he chooses to leave the team, the contract amount is only $180 million for four years.
"Veteran Salary Clause": Also known as the loyalty clause, it is established for stars who have played in the league for more than ten seasons and have not changed teams during the period, and the starting salary of stars who meet this clause will reach 35% of the salary cap.
Bill played only 40 games this season, because of the season reimbursement for left wrist surgery, the Wizards also made a major adjustment in the middle of the season, sending away Dinwiddie, Harrell and other core players back to the space-type interior Porzingis, this adjustment did not turn the situation around at the end of the season, the Washington Wizards finally ended the season with a record of 35 wins and 47 losses to the fourth-to-last in the East, without waves.
Judging from the current news, the Wizards management is imperative to renew The signing of Bill, as a scoring and technically comprehensive quarterback, the 28-year-old Bill is at the peak of his career, although the total amount of this contract is high, but referring to the star's career attendance of more than 80%, the team still has a reason to sign him. Next season, the lineup of Wizards Pope + Beal + Kuzma + Boshin + Garford is still relatively competitive in the East.
5. Ayton is expected to be $173 million in five years
Regular season stats: 17.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 63.4% shooting, 74.6% from the free throws
Playoff stats: 19.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 67 percent shooting, 76.5 percent from free throws
The 2018 draft is a veritable draft year in the past five seasons, Doncic, who has dominated Europe, Trae Young, known as the next Curry, and Ayton, whose template is "Admiral" David Robinson, are among the best, in this master-gathered event, Ayton was plucked by the Sun with an average of 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in college, as well as the comprehensiveness of both ends of the offensive and defensive ends.
After entering the league, Ayton's unpretentious style of play, the Suns' poor record, and the era of data confrontation opened by Doncic and Trae Young made this Yuanlang fade out of the fans' vision. It wasn't until Paul came to Phoenix to lead the Suns to a skyrocket that fans opened the player data sheet and suddenly found that Ayton had maintained two doubles since entering the league, and this big man, who rarely showed himself in front of the camera, had always been the backbone of the Suns' rise.
Last summer, Ayton's management team asked the Suns management for a maximum salary contract, but the latter decided that the Bahamian center's average of 14.4 points and 10.5 rebounds per game (20-21 season) was not convincing, and the biggest credit for solar reaching the Finals was Paul and Booker, so they decisively refused. This offseason, Ayton will be a restricted free agent, other teams can make an offer for him, and the Suns can choose to match or watch him leave.
As a far more powerful than famous star, Ayton's personal ability on the offensive end and the protection of backcourt rebounds are unique in today's league, referring to Gobert's five-year $205 million maximum salary contract that only defends, and there is no reason why Ayton, who is more comprehensive in attack and defense, does not have a maximum salary contract. At present, the Lone Rangers, Pistons, Pacers and other teams are very interested in Ayton, and if the Suns do not give him the maximum salary, the two sides will break up into the countdown.
4, Morant is expected to be 210 million US dollars in 5 years
Regular season stats: 27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 49.3 percent shooting, 34.4 percent three-point range
Playoff stats: 26.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 10.1 assists, 41.7 percent shooting, 30.2 percent three-point range
As the best of the 2019 rookies so far, Morant has successfully transformed himself from an unknown youngster into a star this season, the soaring data has allowed him to win the league's fastest improving player award, excellent data and excellent team results have made him selected for the All-Star starting lineup, compared to the embarrassing contract extension situation of the same year's Champion Zion, Morant's top salary contract this summer is already a nail in the coffin.
According to the league salary regulations, Morant can sign a five-year, $183 million contract extension with the Grizzlies, and thanks to the blessing of the rookie benefit "Rose Clause", as long as Morant is selected as an All-Star starter or selected to the league's best team next season or elected as the regular season MVP, the total amount of this contract will come to $210 million, it can be said that as long as Morant is not injured, this big contract can basically be easily obtained.
Rose clause: If you are elected MVP during a rookie contract or twice selected as an All-Star starter or twice to the League's Best Team, you will receive a 30% salary cap of the entire team's salary cap.
At present, Morant's Grizzlies have crossed the first round of the playoffs, and if he can cross the Warriors to the Western Conference Finals, he will create a remarkable achievement, the rookie third-year division finals, surpassing the predecessors Durant, James and Curry in the same period.
3. Irving is expected to be $247 million in five years
Regular season stats: 27.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 46.7% shooting, 41.8% three-point shooting
Playoff stats: 21.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 44.4 percent shooting, 38.1 percent three-point range
As the most controversial star of the season, Irving's maverick personality made the Nets management and fans miserable, originally the biggest favorite to win the championship before the season, but at the end of the regular season, he got harden's departure, the eighth play-off, the team's cooperation without tacit understanding, the news on the court was hotter than the performance on the field, and finally swept out by the Green Army in the first round of the playoffs.
This summer, Irving will have $36.9 million in player options, and if he chooses to decline, he will be eligible to sign a five-year, $247 million top salary contract with the team, and if he chooses to leave the Nets, his contract amount will drop to $183.6 million for four years. In this alliance where interests are paramount, Irving has no reason to choose the latter, not to mention that he has said more than once in interviews that he prefers to stay with the Nets.
Some fans may say that Tsai Chongxin can not renew his contract with the "thorn-headed" player, but looking at the entire free market, there is no backcourt player who can match Irving's ability, abandoning Irving and choosing to reuse Simmons, and the price of this decision is that the distance between the team and the championship will be getting farther and farther. It can be said that Simmons signed a five-year, 177 million maximum salary contract in 2019, making Irving's chance of leaving the team less likely.
At present, the Nets are difficult to renew Irving's contract, the maximum salary to renew Irving, the team will continue to pay a high luxury tax to the league, while retaining the suspense of the championship; watching Irving leave, the team still can not avoid the luxury tax next season, and completely lose the hope of the championship. Judging from the final result, the future of the Irving Nets may not be good, but letting go of this star, the championship dream that Boss Cai yearns for will be completely shattered.
2, Jokic is expected to be 254 million US dollars in 5 years
Regular season stats: 27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 58.3% shooting, 33.7% three-point shooting
Playoff stats: 31 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 57.5 percent shooting, 27.8 percent three-point range
Last year's playoffs, Lillard averaged 34.3 points and 10.2 assists per game, including an epic performance of hitting 12 three-pointers in a single game, the personal super god play did not lead a group of teammates who could not defend, and finally the first round was eliminated by the Nuggets led by Jokic, "lone hero" is Lillard's label last season, the so-called feng shui rotation, this year Jokic also experienced Lillard's pain.
The injury of two top-paid players, Murray and Porter Jr., made the Nuggets and Warriors series lose suspense early, and the 4-1 score proved that the two sides were far apart in strength, but Jokic's dominance on the inside won the opponent to stand up and applaud, and the league's best defensive player Dream Green regarded Jokic as a representative of the tough interior line, and the center from Selvia has conquered the discerning NBA fans.
This summer, Jokic qualified to complete an early contract extension with the Nuggets, and denver Highlands is a veritable small-ball market with 30 teams in the league, because it is difficult to attract superstars in the free market by relying on urban charm, so the probability of Jokic's top salary staying on the team is infinitely close to 100%. Given that Jokic has already earned regular season MVP, this brings his next top salary contract to $254 million for five years.
Estimated distribution of Jokic's super-salary contracts:
2023-24 season ($43.8 million)
2024-25 season ($47.3 million)
2025-26 season ($50.8 million)
2026-27 season ($54.3 million)
2027-28 season ($57.8 million)
1, Harden is expected to be 270 million US dollars in 5 years
Regular season stats: 22 points, 7.7 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 41 percent shooting, 33 percent three-point range
Playoff stats: 18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 9.4 assists, 40.2 percent shooting, 34.8 percent three-point range
During the offseason last year to Harden's departure from the Nets, Cai Chongxin never sent Harden a maximum salary contract extension, there are many reasons behind this, the most important of which is that Harden is extremely unstable this season, the Nets are not willing to take risks, they are more inclined to complete the contract extension after the team has achieved good results. Unexpectedly, the Nets, which had been secretly observing, waited until Harden's application to leave the team, and the two sides could only part ways.
Harden will have $47.37 million in player options this summer, and if he chooses to refuse, he will qualify for a five-year, $270 million maximum salary contract with the 76ers in the offseason, and a salary of $61 million in the final season, which will also set a record for the highest single contract amount in NBA history if the two sides are finally successful.
From Harden's point of view, when he rejected the super top salary contract promised by the Rockets management to leave the team, and witnessed the Nets' record decline and withdraw from the championship ranks to apply for a trade, these two things are enough to show the importance of the championship in his heart, so it is not excluded that Harden will make concessions on the contract amount for the future salary space of the 76ers.
From the perspective of player interests, Harden is about to turn 33, and there is a significant gap between his current personal competitive status and the three consecutive scoring kings, and it is understandable to strive for a longer-term, higher-paying contract, after all, there are cases of Wade being disgusted by Heat general manager Riley.
In summary, the author believes that the probability of Harden renewing the contract with the 76ers is extremely high, and the specific contract amount depends on whether Harden is willing to actively or passively accept the salary cut, test the free market with his current playoff state, and it is difficult to get a super top salary contract.
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