Why is the new crown virus so bad? Many experts have done analysis, for example, because it is a new virus, people have almost no immunity; in the early stage of the epidemic, the source and transmission route are unknown; there is no specific drug and effective vaccine; there is an incubation period, the early symptoms are not serious, and it is easy to form hidden transmission.
It is precisely because of these characteristics that the new crown virus has not only formed an outbreak in China, but also a surge in cases in various countries in the world.
The mainland's prevention and control work has achieved very good results and has accumulated a lot of experience. At present, the mainland and countries around the world are cooperating in the prevention and control of the new crown virus. Soon, the COVID-19 outbreak should be contained with the joint efforts of the mainland and countries around the world.
The epidemic will eventually pass, but human beings have never stopped thinking about the virus. Could there be a "doomsday virus" that would be so powerful that it could wipe an entire human race off the planet at once? In the future, will the overlord of the earth be humans or viruses?
What does the ideal "doomsday virus" look like?
Thinking about whether the "doomsday virus" exists, we can make some assumptions first.
If there really was a "doomsday virus" that could erase the entire human race at once, what would it look like?
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In the face of the ideal "doomsday virus", the only thing humans can do may be to pray...
Humans don't have enough immunity: the human immune system is immune to viruses that have already been seen. If the virus wants to kill everyone, it needs to escape the immune system of almost everyone. New viruses similar to the new coronavirus have an advantage in this condition, and due to the first appearance, humans are generally not immune to the new virus.
Viruses that mutate frequently, even all the time, have an advantage. For humans, every time they see this "fickle" virus, they lack immunity like a new type of virus.
The lethality rate is close to 100%: In order to be able to kill everyone, the lethality rate of the virus needs to be infinitely close to 100%. As long as it is infected with the virus, people will not live.
Easy to spread: In order to kill everyone, the virus needs to have a super ability to spread. Airborne transmission seems to be the most efficient strategy. Whether it is transmitted through droplets, droplet nuclei (i.e., aerosols), or dust, it can make it very convenient for the virus to spread widely among people.
Spreading by polluting water and food is also a good strategy, and no one can avoid it.
Transmission through insect vectors seems to be good, and pests such as flies, mosquitoes, and fleas are "industrious".
There is no specific drug, no effective vaccine: Human beings are social animals with strong subjective initiative, and if they want to kill the entire human race at once, they need to succeed before humans have developed specific drugs and effective preventive vaccines.
There is a very suitable incubation period: if you want to kill everyone, you need time to infect these people. At present, the total human population of 7 billion is a very large workload. Because of the limitations of the previous condition, human beings will not sit still, so it takes a relatively short time to complete this huge workload. Otherwise, when humans have prepared drugs and vaccines, the plan will be in vain.
Having an incubation period is actually a very effective strategy. During the incubation period, infected people do not show symptoms, so through the conditions can be transmitted to more people in a geometric progression.
However, the incubation period is not as long as possible, and the incubation period that is too long will also affect the transmission force. In addition to the need for the spread of the virus to be concealed, it also needs a certain intensity, otherwise it has been carried out quietly and quietly, and the efficiency is very slow. And once people are aware of it, they will also be left with opportunities for human reactions because of slow efficiency. Therefore, the incubation period should not be too long, and symptoms should begin to appear at the right time, whether it is coughing, sneezing, etc.
People with the disease are the most contagious people, which can greatly improve the efficiency of the spread of the virus, but it is also likely to be controlled by humans for a short time.
This is a balance between concealment and efficiency that is difficult to grasp, so it is important that the incubation period is very "suitable" if it is not long or short.
A virus with these five elements may be an ideal "doomsday virus."
Is the "doomsday virus" already all around us?
Does the "doomsday virus" with five elements exist, or is it even all around us? Fortunately, humans have not yet encountered this virus.
However, it is still quite common to have a few of the five elements.
Smallpox virus: All have it. This is a disease with a high mortality rate, with a mortality rate of up to 97% of hemorrhagic smallpox, and the number of people killed by the smallpox virus in human history needs to be counted in hundreds of millions.
As an infectious disease that has been eradicated by humans, we have not seen the smallpox virus for too long, which has led to human beings having no immunity to smallpox. The smallpox virus spreads extremely quickly through the air, with an average incubation period of about 12 days, allowing smallpox to spread more widely.
Fortunately, smallpox already has a vaccine, and it is precisely because of the existence of vaccines that smallpox has been killed by humans first. But don't take it lightly, there are still laboratories in the world that retain the smallpox virus, and it is not extinct.
HIV virus: All available. Humans have not yet developed immunity to HIV, and the HIV virus will destroy human immunity, which is very serious. There is currently no reliable vaccine or specific drug for HIV.
As for the fatality rate, there are some statistical problems with hive, because it destroys the immune system and makes humans die without self-preservation in the face of other diseases. Whether this fatality rate should be counted on HIV or other diseases is somewhat unclear.
The transmission methods of sexual transmission, blood transmission, and vertical transmission are not very efficient, and they also leave opportunities for human prevention and control.
Influenza virus, SARS virus, new coronavirus: all have. When influenza viruses first appeared, the mortality rate was very high. However, with the passage of time, the influenza virus gradually moderated and became a seasonal influenza, and the fatality rate has been greatly reduced.
Although vaccines exist, they can only be said to have a certain effect, but there is still a long way to go before humans are protected from harm.
At present, there is no real sense of the specific drug has been developed, oseltamivir, zanamivir and other antiviral drugs, like vaccines, can only be said to have a certain effect, from being able to cure viral infections are still a long way away.
Ebola, Hantavirus, Marburg: all. These viruses are new viruses that have only recently begun to appear, and humans generally have no immunity, and the mortality rate after infection is very high, and there is no specific drug and vaccine. However, the incubation period is very short and not easy to spread, making these highly toxic infectious diseases appear very deadly, but preventable and controllable.
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The Ebola virus is very violent, which also limits its ability to spread.
Rabies virus: all have. Without rabies vaccination, the mortality rate of rabies virus infection reaches 100%, humans generally have no immunity to rabies virus, and the incubation period of rabies is very long. However, it is not easy to spread and can be prevented by vaccines, which makes it difficult for rabies viruses to squeeze into the ranks of "doomsday viruses" at present.
There are many similar viruses, but none of them have yet shown the appearance of having all five elements. If one of them mutates and suddenly gathers five major elements, I am afraid that human beings may really have to say goodbye to the earth.
Will the future overlord of the earth be a human or a virus?
Since the virus is so powerful, don't you want to compete with me and other humans for the supremacy of the earth? If there is really a virus that can wipe human beings from the earth, is it not that the earth will be occupied by the virus?
In fact, how can human beings also want to be the overlord of the earth? It's too high to look up to yourself.
Humans really don't know much about viruses. At present, more than 5560 viruses have been discovered by humans, which accounts for only a very small proportion of the entire virus spectrum. There are currently more than 260 species of viruses known to infect humans, less than 0.03% to 0.4% of the entire human viruses.
A lot of viruses are already around us or in our bodies, but we're unaware of them. For example, a virus called TT, published by Scottish virologist Peter Simonde, shows that it has an infection rate of 1.9% among Blood donors in Scotland and as high as 83% among gambia residents in Africa. But what has the TT virus done in our bodies, what impact has it had, just a simple "homestay" or want to play a big one, why is the infection gap in different populations so large? All are still unknown.
In other words, human beings don't even know who their opponents they want to deal with, they don't know where their opponents are, what their opponents look like, and how to deal with them.
In 2018, scientists from the United States and Israel co-sponsored a study that measured global biomass using the weight of carbon, the core element of life, as a criterion.
Global biomass is estimated at about 550 billion tonnes of carbon, of which plants account for the absolute majority, at 450 billion tonnes. Viruses, collectively accounting for 200 million tons of carbon. Humans, on the other hand, account for only a mere 600 million tons.
Human beings are so small, so small that they can't even compare to viruses.
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Our planet may have become a "virus planet"
Judging from the current prevention and control situation, the new crown virus will be defeated by humans in the near future, but obviously this does not mean that humans have the upper hand in the fight against the virus.
As mentioned above, as long as many viruses mutate slightly and make up for the last shortcomings, they may suddenly change their faces and become "end-time viruses". What's more, on average, about 5 new viruses are transmitted from wild animals to humans every year, becoming a new enemy standing on the battlefield. And the "potential adversaries" around us have surrounded us, and we are not even aware of it.
Human beings are in such a dangerous environment.
But then again, human beings have survived in such a dangerous environment and have developed a powerful civilization, and naturally there is a way for human beings to win, that is, intelligence and cooperation.
It is also out of the intelligence and cooperation considerations that human beings rely on for survival, the author here would like to focus on warning those who have no reverence for the natural world, have a low IQ that they cannot see the risk, and who are idle and have nothing to do with pulling others to eat wild game.
The book "Virus Planet" concludes: "The next time some kind of virus is transferred from wild animals to humans, it is likely to cause a large-scale epidemic, and we may not know anything about the pathogenic virus." This phrase was validated in 2003 and again in late 2019. In the future, it will be verified again and again.
Only by maintaining reverence for nature and vigilance against viruses can human race and civilization be said to be continuous.
*The content of this article is a popularization of health knowledge and cannot be used as a specific diagnosis and treatment recommendation, nor is it a substitute for face-to-face consultation by a practicing physician, for reference only.
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