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Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

(The original article was published on April 27, US time, by Kendra Andrews and Kevin Pelton, and the content of the article does not represent the views of the translator.) )

After the Warriors beat the Nuggets on the road in G3, when Poole was about to tell reporters how his teammates had given him more confidence, Thompson ran over and grabbed him by the shoulders, jumping and shouting, "It's a pool/pool party!" It's pool/pool party now! ”

The celebration stemmed from Poole's solo 27-pointer that night — his third consecutive playoff game of at least 25 points.

Looking at the first four games of the series — Poole's playoff debut — he averaged 24.3 points per game, shooting 59.6 percent from the field and 51.9 percent from three-point range.

"He's another lethal weapon." Warriors All-Star forward Wiggins said, "He looks like he's entered a world of his own." He was very involved on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, shooting key balls in succession and constantly playing wonderful games. ”

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

The third-year guard's growth has given the Warriors a huge luxury: allowing Curry, who has been on a left-foot injury for a month, to return to the game with ease. In Thursday's G5, Curry will not be limited to playing time for the first time.

Poole also gave the Warriors an unexpected benefit: As a third guard, he joined Wiggins and Green to shape the Warriors' most powerful rotation — or what might be called the Warriors' new "Death Five."

Thompson said: "Once we find the state, we become very scary. ”

How did a lineup that wasn't tested a minute in the regular season make the Warriors' best fivesome so far in the playoffs? How will the Warriors be tested on the way to the Finals again after a two-year trip to the Lotto district?

How did the Warriors discover this lineup?

At 4:23 in the second quarter of game 1 of the Warriors- and Nuggets series, Poole came on to replace Looney, marking the first time the Warriors sent a lineup of Poole, Curry, Thompson, Wiggins and Green.

Previously, the Warriors had also occasionally used a three-guard combination — Poole, Curry and Thompson had 129 minutes of the same game in the regular season — but due to injuries, the Warriors never sent a pure small-ball lineup.

Nor was it an unexpected discovery.

"We've been planning this all year." Kerr said, "It's only not really happened until the playoffs. ”

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

Since winning the championship in 2014-15, small-ball tactics have become part of the Warriors' DNA. In the 2015 Finals, the Warriors trailed the Cavaliers 1-2 on aggregate. In Battle IV, Cole sent the first generation of "Death Five" composed of Curry, Thompson, Green, Iguodala and Barnes to turn the tide in one fell swoop. Since that series, whenever the Warriors want to change the situation, the "Death Five" is a trick.

The Warriors won two more crowns in the next, and the second generation of "Death Five Small" was indispensable. Among them, MVP Durant replaced Barnes in the 2013-14 season.

However, over the past two seasons, the Warriors have not had the right people to make up the 3.0 version of the "Death Five." Durant went to Brooklyn, Thompson was hit by consecutive major injuries, Curry was also trapped by injuries, and the NBA was forced to postpone due to the new crown epidemic.

This year, Wiggins — who was traded to the Warriors in early 2020 — played his best performance since his rookie and was selected as an All-Star starter for the first time in his career. Poole can also seamlessly fill the position of Thompson or Curry who are sidelined due to injury.

"I would call the fact that Poole was able to stand up as a coincidence and an unexpected result of my injury." Curry said, "I don't know how many people will have the opportunity to stand up for the team in this way. When I came back, we didn't slow down. ”

It wasn't until they started preparing for the playoffs that the Warriors were able to really take advantage of the small lineup.

'We just never came up with a game plan like that because of injuries. Cole said, "We didn't put in the effort to do that. ”

In the first-round series against the Nuggets in the playoffs, Kerr wanted to use the small lineup in a similar way: using it as a means of changing the situation, just as it had allowed the team to beat the Nuggets by 14 points in just five minutes, turning a three-point deficit into an 11-point lead.

The same thing happened in Game 2 of the series, when the new small-ball lineup hit a 22-8 surge in the final six minutes of the first half.

Now, the Warriors will also be the first to assert that the potential of this lineup remains to be seen, especially after G4 has some trouble facing the Nuggets. But it's a set of lineups that they'll continue to use throughout the playoffs, just as they've done in past dynastic periods.

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

"My experiences with Draymond, Clay and Andre over the past seven years have been a special help to Jordan (Poole)'s confidence and experience." Curry said, "At that time, none of us knew what it would take to win a championship until we actually did it once. Those are some things you can't ignore: the experience and ability to orchestrate everything carefully, and the firm confidence in what we're trying to do. ”

Why is this new lineup so effective?

Like all of the Warriors' past small-ball lineups, the success of this lineup is based on the ability of Green to defend players who are bigger than him. Theoretically, if a team has players against Jokic, they will never want to play in a small lineup again. Green is 6 feet 6 inches (1.98 m) tall, 6 inches (15 cm) shorter than Jokic, who is 7 feet (2.13 m) tall. Still, he was successful in one-on-one defense and rim protection.

Second Spectrum's data tracking shows that of the defenders who have played Jokic at least 75 times this season in the regular season and playoffs, only two — Wendell Carter Jr. and Sabonis Jr. — have done a better job than Green (limited to 50 percent) in limiting his effective shooting percentage. For comparison, Jokic's effective shooting percentage against Looney in this series is 70%.

Come to think of it, of the players who defend Jokic the most often, there is no other person under 6 feet 8 inches (2.03 meters) tall. And according to Second Spectrum, with the exception of Green, no player in the league who is less than 6 feet 8 inches tall has played against Jokic more than 36 times this season.

Green has a rare ability to play against players who are much larger than himself, freeing up the Warriors' offense. Replacing Looney means the Warriors' non-shooter players on the court have changed from two to one, which gives the Warriors' star guards more offensive space.

"Draymond's ability to do what he's been doing is irreplaceable." Curry said, "If you can try to limit the opponent on the defensive end, you can have a fairly compelling performance on the offensive end." ”

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

"Quite compelling" may be too modest. The Warriors' new small lineup averages 147.8 points per 100 possessions, unquestionably the best lineup that has played at least 20 minutes in the playoffs this season. (According to NBA high-level statistics, the Dallas Mavericks' lineup with Maxi Kleber as the center ranks second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 131.5.) )

The Warriors' previous small-ball lineup included Iguodala, a less than ideal three-point shooter (33 percent from career three-point range). Now, Poole has taken his place, giving the Warriors four intimidating shooters on the court. All four of them averaged 13.1 three-pointers per game in the regular season — more than the average three-point shooting per game for more than two-thirds of the league's teams.

With so much space, the Golden State Warriors' offensive stats when using this lineup are almost like typos. When all five players are on the floor at the same time, each shoots more than 60 percent, shooting 13-of-24 from three-point range and 23-of-31 from within 5 feet (1.5 meters) from the basket.

Curry's performance was the most prominent, scoring 41 points in the 32 minutes of the lineup. During that time period, the Warriors delivered 24 assists (11 of them from Green) with only six turnovers, 26 points against the Nuggets. As of Tuesday, only two other teams in the playoffs have a better points difference than they did.

Worries persist

Replacing Iguodala with Poole certainly enhanced the Warriors' offensive ability, but it also brought challenges to their defense. Keep in mind that the Warriors' main benefit of putting Green in the center position in the past has been to take advantage of his full defensive abilities. To be precise, it is his ability to change defenses. By removing the original center, the Warriors left four defenders who could swap each other around Curry, who was 6 feet 2 inches (1.88 meters).

But if there were two small defenders on the pitch, Curry and Poole (1.93m), the situation would be different. According to Second Spectrum, the Warriors faced only 22 percent of cover changes in this series, far less than the 2017-19 "Death Five" in the playoffs (36 percent).

Discussion & Analysis| Will the Warriors' new small-ball lineup bring them back to the Finals

In addition to the size advantage, Iguodala may also be the Golden State Warriors' best outside defender in the Treble period. In the past playoffs, if Iguodala had been the starting player for a small lineup, he could go against players like James and Harden. Poole can't bring the same level of individual defensive ability. And since Thompson can't do as well on the defensive end as he did before he was injured, it's harder for the Warriors to restrain the top outside scorers in the opposing squad.

"It's normal to have concerns." When Curry talks about using a small lineup, he says, "You definitely need to think about alignment and you have to think about what you have to give up. But such a lineup does require us to work together and use the strength of the team to grab rebounds and defense. ”

The Nuggets failed to take advantage of the Warriors' small lineup weaknesses due to injuries from Murray and Michael Potter Jr. In future series, the Warriors may face Memphis Grizzlies star Morant and Phoenix Suns all-star doubles Booker and Paul on their way, and things won't be so easy.

No matter who the opponent is, the Warriors' three-guard offensive system should maintain strong firepower. But the performance on the defensive end will determine whether the new Death Five lineup can be seen as the same all-time top as the Death Five 1.0 and 2.0 versions — and ultimately whether the Warriors can win another championship.

Kendra Andrews & Kevin Pelton

Compilation: Asteroid Fall

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