Wencan Shares(2022-4-26)
Integrated die casting due to Tesla's leadership, is in the stage of rapid penetration rate outbreak, this issue to see a representative company.
After all, the market environment and regulatory level have also changed, just look at the Shanghai Composite Index from 2018 to the present, the lowest at the end of 2018 was 2440, and then the end of the epidemic in early 2020, to 2656; now 2886, indeed the opportunity is greater than the risk.
The main reasons for pessimism are as follows:
The Fed wants to raise interest rates continuously, the domestic epidemic spreads, the industrial chain needs to be transferred, and the international situation is becoming increasingly complex...
The above many things we can't guess, we can't judge, it is better to look at the company in hand, such as whether the competitiveness is still there, whether the logic is still smooth.
Although the bear market does not say the bottom, but I firmly believe that this is the bottom area, even if it is down, it may be 10%-20% of the space, but the next 2 years of upward space, far greater than the downward adjustment space. The bottom is not a day, but an area, grinding the bottom takes time, slowly killing people. Wait until you can't grind out the chips, and then start to pull up. Therefore, there are bullets to prepare, and it is good to lie flat without bullets, but do not use leverage.
In addition, today there is a relatively bright plate, that is, the medical plate, in the past week or two we have also mentioned many times in the weekly summary, to increase the attention to the pharmaceutical plate. Now the fund's allocation to the medical sector is almost to the lowest, and there will be less resistance to pull up. At present, it is recommended to pay attention to several leaders, Mindray's performance is stable, the valuation is reasonable, but the possibility of obtaining excess returns is unlikely; several leaders of CXO, such as WuXi, etc., have performed well in the first quarter, compared with the carbon neutral sector that thunderstorm from time to time in the first quarter, and the robustness is much higher.
Today's introduction of Wencan shares, belonging to auto parts, is a period of time before the study, the market is not good, everyone is interested in understanding the next, if not interested in it, there is no need to look, I will not buy this at present, because the technical trend looks uncomfortable. Of course, this kind of small ticket, the fluctuation is also large, the rebound may also be very fierce, today also sealed a period of up and down, depending on the personal trade-off.
First, the company profile
The lightweight of the car is mainly through the aluminum alloy instead of steel, under the premise of maintaining the overall structural strength of the body, the weight of the vehicle is reduced as much as possible, thereby improving the performance of the vehicle. For new energy vehicles, the car can reduce weight by 100kg, the cruising range can be increased by 10-11%, and the battery and daily loss costs can be reduced by 20%. Different from steel structures, aluminum alloys have certain technical difficulties when welding, and the welding cost is about 2 times that of steel. In this case, integrated die casting can solve the cost and process difficulties very well.
The company is a leading enterprise in domestic aluminum die casting, taking the lead in laying out integrated die casting technology. Downstream customers include ZF, Bosch, Continental, Magna and other global Tier1s, as well as traditional car OEMs such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Renault, etc., as well as new energy OEMs such as Tesla, Nio, Xiaopeng and Ideal.
Second, the industry situation
(1) Tesla has spawned an integrated die-casting boom
Integrated die casting is essentially a high-pressure casting process, that is, a number of separate, scattered small pieces in the original design are redesigned and highly integrated, and then use the die casting machine for a single molding, omitting the welding process to directly obtain a complete large part, which is more difficult and requires a large tonnage die casting machine for production.
Die casting equipment die casting machine, the global leader is Lijin, including Tesla is also purchased from him. In 2020, Model Y began to use one-piece die-casting after-floor assembly, the number of parts is reduced by 79 compared with Model 3, and the number of solder joints is reduced from about 700-800 to 50, which can reduce the weight of the assembly of the car body by 30%, reduce the manufacturing cost by 40%, and reduce the manufacturing time from 1-2 hours to 3-5 minutes in the traditional process.
Tesla plans to integrate the die-cast chassis in the future, which will replace the entire assembly of 370 parts with 2-3 large die-castings, and the weight will be further reduced by 10%, and the corresponding mileage can be increased by 14%.
Integrated die casting is still in its early stages and the penetration rate is very low. Now many car companies have seen the results of Tesla's integrated die casting, have followed suit, the progress of the front including Wei Xiaoli, etc., said that they will use integrated die casting, the industry heat is soaring. Due to the large initial investment in integrated die casting and the high process barriers, most OEMs will choose to release them to professional aluminum die casting suppliers to complete, that is, the role of Wencan.
(2) Advantages of integrated die casting
In fact, from the above effect of Tesla, it can be seen that the most important advantage of integrated die casting is to reduce costs, reduce weight, improve production efficiency, less parts, less processing processes, light weight, and great advantages. Of course, there are also a little disadvantages, for consumers, if you want to repair, the cost is expensive, after all, this is an integrated part. Some time ago, there was news that a Tesla owner reversed his car and hit the wall, 280,000 cars, maintenance costs 200,000. Although it is possible to take insurance, the premium has also risen, and the wool is out of the sheep. Of course, this kind of accident is a small probability after all, and it does not affect the development logic of the industry.
Compared with traditional cars, new force car companies should be more willing to increase the size of integrated die casting, mainly because they do not have stamping and welding capacity, the transformation burden is small, and they have more motivation and willingness to promote the integrated die casting process.
(3) Industry space
In 2021, only Tesla Model Y uses integrated die casting, with the technical upgrade of integrated die casting, the scope of application of body integration will be expanded from the current rear seat plate to the front body, chassis battery tray, and door, and the corresponding bicycle value is expected to increase from 2200 yuan to 14400 yuan. According to estimates, the market space corresponding to the integrated die casting in 2021-2025 will increase from about 900 million yuan to about 27 billion yuan, and the CAGR is 134%, which is not a particularly large industry space, but the growth rate is very fast.
In terms of die-casting machine equipment, the significance of investment is not great, because the global leader is Lijin Group, with a market share of more than 40%, and the other is Buller, Haitian Metal, Yizumi and other enterprises, so our focus is still on processing companies such as Wencan.
Third, the company's advantages
(1) Leading progress and excellent execution
At present, there are many enterprises that do die casting of aluminum parts, and there are Aikodi, Xusheng, Wencan and so on in China. Industry barriers are relatively high, on the one hand, from the equipment bottleneck, because the body die casting needs a high-tonnage die casting machine, many enterprises die casting machine tonnage can only meet the production needs of small parts; in addition, the industry's process accumulation is also critical, if there is no long-term technical accumulation, the yield and performance of the product will be greatly reduced.
The following is the equipment and progress of major domestic enterprises, whose Chinese Can is relatively leading, has successfully signed a contract with Weilai and Ideal, and the progress of Tuopu and Hongtu is also OK.
(2) Strong reproducibility
The company is the earliest research and use of vacuum high-pressure casting process to produce aluminum alloy enterprises, the technology is leading in the world, the product basically covers all aluminum alloy body structural parts, the use of independent design and manufacturing of molds, for the technical requirements of high heat-free treatment of aluminum alloy materials, the company has also mastered the whole process of formula and composition requirements.
Therefore, compared with its peer competitors, Wencan's experience is more abundant, although other companies have also purchased large tonnage die casting machines, but the previous core business is the three-electric system and Zhongxin die castings, there is still a certain gap in the process accumulation of large structural parts, and it is unlikely to catch up with Wencan in a short period of time.
In addition to the integrated die casting, the company has also made a full layout in the field of three electricity and chassis, and won a number of new energy orders, but this part of the business volume is not large, and the revenue is mainly from die casting. Unlike other companies, aluminum die casting is only part of the business, so Wencan's elasticity in this field will be greater.
4. Other data
1. Financial Indicators
(1) Robustness
The company borrowed 340 million short-term loans, long-term borrowings of 970 million, deposits of 490 million, the overall average, cash flow is still said in the past.
(2) Profitability
In 2021, the company's revenue was 4.11 billion yuan, +58% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was 0.97 billion yuan, +16% year-on-year. Among them, Q4 revenue was 1.15 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother was 0.28 billion yuan, +193.4% year-on-year.
The company's gross profit margin of 18.5%, net profit margin of 2.4, down sequentially, mainly due to the price increase of raw materials, THE ROE of 3.7%. To be honest, the data is pretty average.
2. Valuation level
Post a new wealth brokerage company's forecast for the next few years, the growth rate is very fast, PEG is less than 1, and the price is not bad:
3. Technical analysis
Like most track stocks, huge roller coasters, patience and other bottom stabilization, short-term level no good buying points:
4. Evaluation and scoring
Good track: 6 points
Good Company: 6 points
Good price: 7 points
Finally, to sum up:
(1) Integrated die casting is conducive, cost reduction, lightweight, under the Tesla demonstration effect, Wei Xiaoli has followed up, Huawei, Ford, Volkswagen, Zhiji, Xiaomi and other car companies are planning, the industry is setting off an integrated die casting process revolution, on the eve of the outbreak;
(2) With the advantages of the original aluminum die casting, the company is in the forefront of the industry and has obtained a number of orders;
(3) In 22 years, due to the release of orders, the capacity utilization rate increased, the profit margin rose, and the performance is expected to be released significantly, making the valuation tend to be reasonable.
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