Author 丨Shi Jie
Responsible editor 丨 Cao Jiadong
Edit 丨 Chic
Market Overview: The small car segment "exploded" in March.
It is not that there is any electric car fire, but in the context of the passenger car market being dragged down, the A00 and A0 level segments, after many years of downturn, ushered in explosive growth. According to our statistics, sales of small and micro vehicles reached 156,000 units in March, up 45.7% year-on-year.
This is not a one-month flash of inspiration, as small and micro cars also grew by 48.8% year-on-year throughout the first quarter, with cumulative sales of 415,000 units. What is this concept? Car sales are still in a tug-of-war between rising and falling, while small cars have soared by nearly half year-on-year.
With a record of 47,563 units, Wuling Hongguang MINI became the top sales of all models in March, with Xuanyi, the number one car salesman, and Tesla Model Y, the top seller of new SUVs, with only 28,600 units and 39,800 units, respectively.
However, not all the credit goes to Hongguang MINI, because its increase is 10% to 20%. The growth of the entire small car segment depends on a large number of fresh forces such as QQ Ice Cream and BYD Dolphin, as well as models such as Changan E-STAR, which has doubled year-on-year.
The question is, since pure electric mini cars are so hot, Tesla, which "has to insert a lever in everything", is it possible to consider building mini cars? Don't categorically rule out the possibility because of Tesla's brand grade, and don't because Tesla currently even hides the Model Q of about 150,000 yuan, "everything is possible."
Once the mini-car is regarded as a "nother species" after the boutique, rather than a "cheap means of transportation", then adding to Tesla's product lineup is not obtrusive, just like asTrot Martin and Cygnet, a mini-car, jointly developed with Toyota.
Of course, the current success of electric micro-cars is closely related to channel sinking, rural and low-line transportation, so it is not fully in line with Tesla's tone. If Musk really wants to develop a mini car, it is bound to compete for territory from the hands of "urban commuter micro car".
So how big is this cake?
In the urban sales distribution of Wuling Hongguang MINI in 2021, the top three are Zhumadian, Shangqiu and Luoyang, with an annual sales volume of 6,000 vehicles, but the 6th and 7th places are Wuhan and Hangzhou, with sales of nearly 6,000 vehicles, while the 13th Chengdu also has nearly 5,000 vehicles.
Originally, Shanghai's appeal to Hongguang MINI would not be smaller than that of Hangzhou, and the number of insured vehicles in the first quarter of 2021 was 1,509, which can be expected to reach 6,000 vehicles in the whole year. However, after Shanghai banned pure electric vehicles below 100,000 yuan from licensing in disguise, the sales of electric micro-vehicles plummeted in Shanghai, and only 78 Hongguang MINI vehicles paid for compulsory traffic insurance in Shanghai in December. Not to mention the significance of Hongguang's fate in Shanghai, at least it shows that Shanghai's demand for such products is not low.
In summary, in the first and second-tier cities, if Tesla sells high-quality micro-electric vehicles, it is expected to achieve no less than the peak level of Hongguang MINI (5-6,000 vehicles/city a year). But the share of the low-line market is its inability to match the Wuling Hongguang MINI graben.
Although the hero can change the situation to a certain extent, the situation is the main factor that determines the direction of the situation, and the hero's dominance is more partial and special.
Therefore, it is reasonable that Musk bet on the Model Y to become the champion of model sales, but did not rush to launch low-cost products. For a long time, this cake will still be very stable in the hands of independent brands.