The results of the "2+2" talks between Japan and the Philippines have been released, and the two sides have expressed their consideration for expanding defense cooperation, does this mean that the conspiracy of the United States and Japan to disrupt the South China Sea has succeeded?
Following the US-Philippines "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise, the Japan-Philippines "2 + 2" talks were also held as agreed, and while the two countries exchanged views on the Russian-Ukrainian issue during the talks, they also reached a consensus that they would continue to consider expanding defense cooperation.
As we all know, Japan, as the younger brother of the United States, has always been the only United States in its own position, and this "2 + 2" talks between the two countries, in the eyes of the outside world, the United States wants to borrow Japan's hand to pull the Philippines into the water, encourage its defection, and surround China with them, and the consensus reached by the two countries basically confirms the speculation of the media. Does that mean that the U.S.-Japan conspiracy to disrupt the South China Sea and confront China has succeeded?
In fact, this is not the case, because there were some things that happened during this period, resulting in the success probability of the United States and Japan in co-opting the Philippines, full of some variables, the first thing, during the US-Philippines joint military exercise, the Philippines explicitly refused the live-fire exercise; the second thing, the four ASEAN foreign ministers organized a delegation to visit China, including the Philippine foreign minister; the third thing, Philippine President Duterte said that he would be ready to hold talks with China's high-level, and that he could also discuss the fishing rights of Nansha and related fishermen.
When these things are clarified, there may be some context for the future development of the situation in the South China Sea. In my opinion, there are three possibilities for the situation in the South China Sea in the future.
The first variable, the Philippines fell to the United States, the South China Sea spoiled the success. According to the script of the Us-Japanese director, the Philippines joined the anti-China camp of the United States and began to encircle China. Not only that, as the gateway of the Pacific Ocean to Southeast Asia, the importance of the Philippines' strategic position determines that its foreign and security policies have a certain impact on other countries in Southeast Asia. As a result, other Southeast Asian countries are likely to follow in the footsteps of the Philippines and move closer to the United States. At this time, the situation facing China in the South China Sea will be very serious.
The second variable is that the Philippines remains neutral and the South China Sea maintains the status quo. Why? Everyone needs to note that this consensus reached between Japan and the Philippines is to "consider expanding the defense ensemble", and there is no time, nor is there any detailed rules for defense cooperation. In other words, there is a certain time interval from the consideration of the actual implementation of the landing. In this time interval, anything can happen. Coupled with the fact that the Philippines is "going to the treaty" with the United States and Japan while releasing goodwill to China, it can be judged that the Philippines is likely to find a balance point that will not offend the United States or China. In the case of maintaining neutrality in the great power game and not taking sides, we will achieve a "double harvest" of defense and development. At this time, then, on the issue of the South China Sea, it is likely that the situation will be to shelve the dispute and maintain the status quo.
The third variable, the Philippines fell to China, the South China Sea jointly developed. Although the likelihood of this variable is small, it is not impossible. If the Philippines realizes that development is the most important thing at present, then cooperation with China is undoubtedly the best policy. If the Philippines has the courage to be free from the influence of the United States, then Sino-Philippine cooperation will be imperative, which will play an important role in promoting the implementation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. At that time, the South China Sea dispute will not only be properly resolved, but the two sides will also jointly develop and benefit together.
The variables that will emerge in the future situation in the South China Sea will depend to some extent on the upcoming general elections in the Philippines. Not long ago, the current president of the Philippines, Duterte, warned the next president not to make trouble in the South China Sea. This shows a problem that pro-American forces in the Philippines are ready to move. If the president of the election is himself pro-AMERICAN or coerced by pro-US forces at home, then the situation in the South China Sea is likely to show the first variable in the future. If the election results are pro-China and win the contest with domestic pro-US forces, then, considering the actual situation, the situation in the South China Sea is likely to have a second or third variable, and on the whole, the possibility of a second variable will be higher.
Of course, no matter what the outcome of the Philippine election is, whether the United States can stir up trouble or not, China should prepare for the worst in the Situation in the South China Sea. After all, we cannot only pin our hopes on others, only by doing ourselves well and constantly improving our comprehensive strength can we enhance the right to speak about the situation in the South China Sea and firmly grasp the initiative in the situation in the South China Sea. (Han Zhenxi)