Judging from the information released by the Philippine media, the Philippines plans to organize hundreds of ships, and through the command of two large ships, try to force their way into the waters near China's Scarborough Shoal. Judging from the actions of the Philippines, there is a big bet that the US military will move the rhythm, because the Philippines is starting a new round of provocative actions after the joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines. Unlike previous cases in which the Philippines used official vessels to force their way into Scarborough Shoal, the provocations that began on May 14 were promoted by civil society organizations, and it is clear that the Philippines has changed its tactics and tried to counter the Chinese coast guard's law enforcement actions through "crowd tactics".
As for the actions of the Philippines, the analysis of the Beacon Front Station believes that the Philippines will provide support through official ships under the pretext of civilian actions, so as to realize the declaration of sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal, in fact, Japan has adopted the same method and frequently launched provocations on the Diaoyu Islands. Japan's so-called non-governmental organizations have long used ships to operate in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands, including fishing and scientific expeditions, and then took the opportunity to try to intrude into the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands, while the Japan Coast Guard has used patrol boats to provide cover.
Now the Philippines is convinced that China will not promote the "island reclamation" operation at Scarborough Shoal, and for this reason, it is trying to change the status quo of Scarborough Shoal through "crowd tactics". The China Coast Guard has taken control of Scarborough Shoal through patrol vessels, and has used a variety of means to maintain the integrity of its territory and sovereignty in the face of provocations by the Philippines, including the use of high-pressure water cannons to drive away Philippine government vessels. Recently, the Philippines has used two official ships to try to force its way into Scarborough Shoal, and has also brought a large number of media reporters with it to try to exaggerate the "bullying" of the Philippines by the Chinese coast guard. The Chinese coast guard will not be accustomed to provocations by the Philippines, and will directly enforce the law through high-pressure water cannons.
According to the analysis of the Beacon Front Station, the Philippines has been very passive in the transportation and replenishment agreement recently, because the Philippines and China have reached an agreement to maintain the supply of Ren'ai Jiao by applying for transportation and replenishment, but the Philippines has publicly denied the relevant agreement, and after the Chinese side made the content public, the Philippine National Security Adviser has publicly threatened to expel Chinese diplomats, and the Philippines is trying to launch a new round of provocations. The Philippines has kicked a hard plate in denying the transportation and subsidy agreement, originally thinking that China would not release the relevant contents, but in the end it is "asking for a hammer to get a hammer", so it is trying to save face by forcibly entering Scarborough Shoal, and at the same time, it is also betting that the US military will help.
China has responded to the Philippines' aggressive posture, and on May 13, the China Coast Guard released a video of its patrol at Scarborough Shoal, thus sending a clear signal that the China Coast Guard is ready to counter Philippine provocations at any time, and that the China Coast Guard will resolutely safeguard the integrity of its territorial sovereignty regardless of whether the Philippines uses civilian or official vessels. At the instigation of the United States, the Philippines has already had the intention of taking further risks, and it is clear that the Chinese coast guard is "saluting before soldiers", and if the Philippines crosses the red line, the Chinese coast guard will not be polite. According to publicly available information, the Chinese Coast Guard has a number of patrol vessels patrolling the waters near Scarborough Shoal, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also operated in the vicinity.