A week ago, Putin was officially sworn in as the eighth president of the Russian Federation, beginning a six-year term. After that, Putin quickly came up with his cabinet nomination, and one of the most striking adjustments was that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu changed his position. According to the Observer, on May 12, Putin nominated former First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov as the new defense minister, while the previous defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, went to serve as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. In addition, Prime Minister Mishustin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Gerasimov, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin, Minister of Emergency Situations Kulenkov, and Head of the Federal Security Service Bortnikov were retained. In this regard, let's talk about two points.
First, the Russian-Ukrainian war has entered the most critical moment, why did Putin choose to change the commander?
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict enters the third year, although Ukraine has a steady stream of NATO military assistance, it has never been able to show a convincing performance on the battlefield, and the Russian army has launched a counteroffensive from the eastern, southeastern and southern directions of Ukraine.
In this context, although the West is dissatisfied with Ukraine, it cannot see Russia win, so it has increased military aid to Ukraine, not only sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, but also F-16 to aid Ukraine in the near future.
Moreover, France, Britain, Lithuania and other NATO countries are also ready to send troops to Ukraine and play in person, the war situation is so tense, and there is a possibility of a showdown with NATO, why did Putin replace Defense Minister Shoigu at this time? Objectively speaking, by doing this, Putin is not distrustful of Shoigu, but more like "decompressing" Shoigu.
We know that Shoigu has been a good friend of Putin for many years, and every year on Putin's birthday, most of the photos released to the public are with Shoigu in the Far East cross-country, skiing, hunting, fishing, and camping, showing the demeanor of a tough guy.
You must know that appearing in Putin's birthday scene is not an easy task for Russian officials, and for many years, I am afraid that Shoigu is the only one who has spent time with Putin on his birthday, which also shows how deep the friendship between him and Putin is. Therefore, Putin chose to change his position, it is unlikely that there is a crisis of confidence, if I have to say it, it may be two other points.
First, at the beginning of the Russian army's "special military operation" against Ukraine, it obviously underestimated Ukraine's ability to resist, thinking that it would be able to take Kyiv in half a month and end the operation. Therefore, at the beginning, it was dispatched on multiple fronts, and even rushed to the city of Kyiv, but after Ukraine, armed by NATO, began to launch a Jedi counterattack, Russia found that its prediction was wrong, and there was a short period of "panic" in strategy and "passive losses" in tactics. The outside world believes that these responsibilities should be borne by Shoigu, after all, he is the defense minister.
The other is that after Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, launched a military coup last year, it was discovered that his target was not Putin, but Shoigu, who believed that Shoigu had "suppressed" Wagner during the military operation against Ukraine, and the reason why they went to Moscow with arms was to "clear the monarch's side". But in the end, Putin still chose to believe in Shoigu. Now these two people, one has been transferred out of the position of defense minister, and the other has been killed in a bizarre plane crash, which is also lamentable.
However, although he was no longer the Minister of Defense, Putin did not treat his old friend Shoigu badly, and he was transferred to the post of secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. It is also appropriate for Shoigu to come here, firstly, he is also a "hardliner", and secondly, it is the military-industrial complex that is in charge, which is also his old profession.
Shoigu's current superior is considered by the outside world to be Russia's "No. 2 real power person" - Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, and Putin is also the chairman. In a sense, although Shoigu is not in the cabinet now, he has "risen brightly and secretly".
Second, in general, the Minister of Defense should be a "military expert", but why did Putin choose an economist?
Judging from the current situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, even if Ukraine has NATO assistance, there is basically no major problem for Russia to suppress the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. Therefore, the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not a question of who wins in the end, but a question of how long Ukraine can drag on before admitting defeat.
In this way, it is very important how much "resilience" the Russian economy can have in wartime, because Ukraine is not fighting alone after all, Russia is fighting Ukraine + NATO, especially with a world giant like the United States standing behind Kyiv, the pressure on the Russian side is even greater. After the outbreak of the conflict, the reason why the Russian economy has been able to carry it until now, and even "not retreat but advance" under multiple sanctions imposed by the West, is that two people are very important, one is Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, and the other is First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov.
In the context of Mishustin's retention as prime minister, how to transplant this "resilience" of Russia in the economic field to the army has become a very critical issue. As a result, Putin made a breakthrough choice to let the "literati" Belousov be the defense minister. In this regard, the spokesman of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov, who also remained in office, said that only those who are open to innovation can achieve victory on the battlefield, and it is very important to introduce the economy of the military sector into the national economy.
Perhaps, Putin also believes that only Belousov can do such a thing well. So, how does an economist command war?
Of course, Putin will also take it into consideration, because Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, has remained in office, and at present, militarily, he is basically in command, and what Belousov wants to do is to "innovate" Russia's defense economy, because the Russian military budget has increased from 3% to 6.7% of GDP, which is close to the situation in the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s.
For Putin's "unconventional" adjustment, the West was also caught off guard, and the Western media generally believed that Russia was going to change its tactics in response to the war, and Putin was doubling down on the war in Ukraine, and after the West tried to use sanctions to bring down the Russian economy, but ultimately failed, more of the Russian economy was used for the war. But what has to be said is that changing commanders on the spot is a taboo for soldiers, and we might as well wait and see whether Putin can achieve the goal he expects by putting Belousov in the position of defense minister.