On April 18, Beijing time, BYD released the first quarterly performance forecast from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022, according to the forecast, BYD's Q1 profit is between 650 million and 950 million yuan, an increase of 174% -300% compared with the same period last year, that is to say, BYD's performance in Q1 2022 is expected to increase by 3 times year-on-year.
This is BYD's first performance forecast after it stopped producing conventional fuel vehicles in March 2022.
In the performance forecast, BYD explained that due to the record sales of new energy vehicles, the market share continued to rise, with rapid year-on-year growth, which led to a substantial improvement in profitability, hedged the profit pressure brought about by the rise in the price of upstream raw materials in the external environment, and also hedged the impact of the internal mobile phone components and assembly business due to the impact of industry weakness.
In other words, the increase in sales of BYD new energy vehicles has brought about a scale effect, which is gradually reflected in the performance, and can gradually hedge the impact of the decline in the performance of mobile phone components and organizational business, and the profitability of BYD Group is further strengthening. If the upstream raw material prices fall, the profitability of BYD's new energy vehicles is expected to be further strengthened.
However, BYD's earning power is still very poor compared to Tesla, even if this year BYD is expected to surpass Tesla to become the global new energy vehicle sales champion, which is far from profitability. In 2021, Tesla's profit is close to 36 billion yuan, AND's profit is 3 billion yuan, that is, in 2021, BYD's hard work for a year is the money Tesla earns for a month.
In 2022, BYD can work for one year, can it surpass Tesla for a month?
01
BYD's new energy sales explosion improved performance
On April 3, 2022, the day of the Qingming Festival, BYD officially announced that it had stopped production of traditional fuel vehicles in March, all in new energy.
In Q1 2022, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 291,000 units, its DMI models and EV models went hand in hand, Dynasty Network and Ocean Network had their own strengths, and Han, Qin, Tang and other models strived to top the list in the subdivision field, which was of great benefit to BYD to improve its performance.
Since BYD has not yet announced detailed performance, it can be seen from the forecast that the scale effect brought about by the growth of new energy vehicle sales is obvious. In the performance forecast, BYD described the performance of a major profit pillar mobile phone components and assembly business as being affected by the weakness of the industry, which means that the profitability of this business is not as good as in previous years.
According to BYD's 2021 annual report, BYD's three main businesses: 1, automobiles, automotive-related products and other products, turnover accounted for 52%; 2, mobile phone parts, assembly and other products, turnover accounted for 40%; 3, secondary rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics, turnover accounted for 7.6%.
In 2021, the mobile phone components, assembly and other products business, which accounts for up to 40%, will have a gross profit from 11.19% in 2020 to 7.57% in 202, and the profitability in Q1 of 2022 is not optimistic from the performance forecast. Even more frightening is that the size of the business may be further reduced.
On April 1, 2022, Guo Mingji, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, said that China's major Android mobile phone brands have cut about 170 million orders so far this year, accounting for about 20% of the original shipment plan in 2022, while more than 70% of orders use MediaTek chips. The decline in the mobile phone business has had a very large impact on the performance of BYD's mobile phone components and assembly business segments.
However, fortunately, BYD's new energy vehicle business ushered in explosive growth, which contributed the most to BYD's 2022 Q1 performance is still expected to increase by 3 times year-on-year, and also allowed BYD to see the actual performance of new energy vehicles.
02
The gross profit is only half that of Tesla, and the intelligence is even worse
According to the 2021 financial report, the gross profit of BYD Automobile is about 16%, and Tesla's gross profit is more than 30%, which means that even if BYD can win the title of global champion in new energy vehicle sales this year, it is far inferior to Tesla in terms of earning power, not to mention intelligent ability.
For BYD, what needs to be learned is Tesla's profitability and intelligent capabilities, which are magic weapons that can amplify their own value.
Tesla's Q1 2022 results report was released after hours on Wednesday of the week, which is Released on April 20. In Q1 2022, Tesla car sales exceeded 310,000 vehicles, more than BYD's 291,000 vehicles, more terrible is that Tesla's bicycle sales price, gross profit are more than BYD, if there is no accident, Tesla's profitability in Q1 2022 will also exceed BYD, depending on whether it can exceed the profitability of Q4 in 2021.
In contrast, BYD's total profit for all its businesses for the year was only 3.045 billion, just a little more than Tesla's most profitable Q1. It can be said that a year of hard work, equal to Tesla to do a quarter, on average, not as good as Tesla to work for a month, after all, Tesla net income of nearly 100 million yuan a day, the reason behind the profitability of the two sides is too far.
The reason behind this is that Tesla's sales are gradually rising, while Tesla's gross profit margin remains at about 30%, which directly leads to the growth of Tesla's profitability. This is due to the fact that Tesla mainly sells two models, model 3 and Model Y, and the parts of the two models have a common rate of more than 70%, which further enhances Tesla's profitability.
In contrast, BYD has more models and is divided into two major technical routes, DMI and EV, which further increases the cost, resulting in its bicycle gross profit of only about 16%.
As for the degree of intelligence, BYD's level of intelligence has too much room for improvement compared to Tesla. Especially for autonomous driving, just a few days ago, the ARK fund set Tesla's 2026 target price at $4600, the corresponding market value should be around 4.7 trillion, after the ARK fund's target price for Tesla in 2025 was $3,000, and the growth was mainly reflected in Tesla's upcoming self-driving taxi business. In addition, the ARK fund believes that Tesla's sales growth rate will reach 75% per year, much higher than the 25% generally expected by Wall Street, and Musk's expectation is more than 50%.
Although BYD's car performance is improving, if compared with Tesla, there is still a lot of room for improvement. BYD, come on, ah, no, BYD, power up! Hahahahahahaha
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