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Based on Musk's entrepreneurial history, we will look back at the Sino-US trade war and discuss the future development direction
2022-04-14 16:29
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This article is a personal opinion only, does not represent any interests, and is purely small talk.
Several prejudgments of the future are also personal views, and everyone can consider this aspect if they believe it, and if they do not believe it, they have the right to read a joke.
directory:
I. Introduction
Second, review Musk's entrepreneurial history
1. "Blastar" space game software
2、Zip2
3. X.com & PayPal (PayPal)
4、Space X
5. Tesla
6. SolarCity
7、The Boring Company
8. Starlink
Third, china's main development process since 1983
1. Real estate
2. Internet
3. High-end manufacturing
4、5g
5, new energy: solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy, energy storage equipment, lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries, etc
6. Aerospace
Fourth, the intersection of Sino-US science and technology development and the launching of the trade war
Fifth, our current state
1. International status
2. Domestic status
Sixth, the future of several directions to predict
1. New energy
2, former universe
3. Digital currency
4. High-tech industry
5. Real estate
I. Introduction
The U.S.-China trade war began in the early morning of March 23, 2018. In the early morning of March 23, from Washington, D.C., on the west coast of the Pacific, came the news that shook the global market: the United States officially fired its first shot on the Sino-US trade battlefield! At about 0:50 Beijing time on March 23, US President Trump formally signed a trade memorandum with China at the White House. Trump announced on the spot that it would be possible to impose tariffs on $60 billion of goods imported from China and restrict Chinese companies from investing in the United States.
From the first industrial revolution in the 1760s, the forefront of world development has always been in the hands of Western countries, especially since the beginning of the second electric revolution, the United States has become the world's only leading power. He did not allow other nations to surpass him as rulers. Since around 2016, China has caught up with and surpassed the United States to a certain extent in some cutting-edge technological fields. It poses a substantial threat to the United States' status as the world's sole great power, and unlike the state system of China's socialist countries, the United States is a capitalist country, and under the capitalist system, it is more a law of market competition than a law of political consultation. In commercial competition, more is needed is the maximization of interests and monopoly of resources, and political consultation may require more coordination.
Although in recent years, China's cutting-edge technology has surpassed the United States in some fields, such as 5G, new energy (solar, hydropower, lithium batteries, etc.), space exploration technology. However, China's technologies are not completely autonomous, many of them are completed on the basis of the foundation of scientific research in the United States, such as the Internet, chips, semiconductors, which are the basis for the rapid development of science and technology in recent years, and the patents and production of these foundations are not here. The four great inventions of ancient China, papermaking, compass, gunpowder, and printing, the four inventions have had a huge role in promoting the political, economic and cultural development of ancient China, and have spread to the West through various channels, exerting a huge influence on the history of the development of world civilization. Similarly, these four inventions are also the basis for the progress of the world, and they have played a role until now, but these four inventions have no patents, and nothing can directly restrain others. And now the Internet, chip semiconductors can.
Why did I write in contrast to Musk?
I think Musk's entrepreneurial experience is very representative, and every step of his entrepreneurship has stepped on the forefront of local technology and technology development, and even led a new development direction. From the beginning of the Internet game in 1983, to the current SpaceX, Tesla, rail transit is. So I hope to re-examine our development and why the United States launched a trade war from a different perspective. And discuss where we are going in the future. What can we do?
Second, review Musk's entrepreneurial history
Elon Musk, a heroic engineer, dreamer, entrepreneur and philanthropist, will not become a politician in the future is yet to be tested.
Musk, which I summarized, has the following aspects that have contributed to his success.
First: A person with big ambitions and a clear goal
Elon Musk has always made it his mission to work on a better future for humanity. He wants to make humanity a cross-planetary species, to resolve the increasingly tense human-land contradictions on Earth through cross-planetary. And through the development of new energy to reduce human over-resource intake of the earth.
Second: be able to execute and dare to gamble on your entirety
Musk's entrepreneurial journey has ups and downs, and every time he starts a new business, he can gamble his entire wealth. And in every startup company is a hands-on practice.
Third: a clear separation between sensibility and reason
Musk has a particularly clear division of work and life, and they have made a clear distinction between the time spent with their families and the time spent working each week. One case of not bringing emotional feelings into rational work is that the assistant who has followed him for 10 years will be fired directly at work, and will not talk about any emotion. At work, the progress of the work cannot be affected by the fact that the opposite is any one person.
Fourth: the ability to withstand pressure is very strong
Musk's past has produced many stressful events. From being bullied as a child to being excluded in entrepreneurship, he has faced the impact of bankruptcy several times. There are also early deaths of sons in life, divorces and other events. None of this overwhelmed him, but made him more resilient.
Fifth: The more nervous, the more chaotic the time, the calmer he is. Good mindset
Sixth: Visionary and lucky
Musk's entrepreneurial experience from the very beginning of every job is the most advanced technology and scientific and technological progress direction at that node in the world. Foresight is the main thing, but it is also inseparable from the ingredient of luck.
Musk's entrepreneurial experience review:
1. "Blastar" space game software
In 1983, Elon Musk successfully designed a space game software called "Blastar", which was later sold to PC and Office Technology magazine for $500, earning his first pot of gold.
2、Zip2
In 1995, Elon Musk and his brother Kimbal Musk started Zip2 with random angel investment from a small silicon valley conglomerate, a company that develops online content publishing software for news organizations, when both The New York Times and The Chicago Post became customers of the Musk brothers.
3. X.com & PayPal (PayPal)
In 1999, U.S. computer maker Compaq acquired Zip2 for $307 million in cash and $34 million in stock options, and Elon Musk, 28, made a profit of $22 million in the acquisition. In March of the same year, Elon Musk invested $10 million to start X.com, an online financial services and email payments business with two partners from Silicon Valley.
4、Space X
In June 2002, Elon Musk founded Space X as CEO and chief technology officer, Elon Musk began to study how to reduce the cost of rocket launches, and planned to achieve Mars colonization in the future, to create a real space civilization for mankind.
5. Tesla
In 2004, Musk invested $6.3 million in Tesla, founded by Martin Eberhard, who served as chairman. Tesla is a company that makes high-end electric sports cars, and Musk's investment in it is clearly based on his love of electric cars and optimism about the market. Because of management problems and stumbling during the production of the first sports car, Musk put all his money into research and development.
6. SolarCity
In 2006, Elon Musk invested $10 million to co-found Sun City with his cousin. It is a company that does solar energy, and it has also been made so far, the largest solar energy company in the United States
7、The Boring Company
Founded in December 2016, The Boring Company is a rail transit company that solves the problem of ground congestion. According to Musk's vision, he will install a "pallet" on the ground where the car is suspended, and when the car is parked, the pallet will descend to the ground, and the car will be transported quickly between the underground tunnels, reaching a maximum speed of 200 kilometers per hour.
8. Starlink
Third, china's main development process since 1983
1. Real estate
The development of real estate in China has roughly four stages:
Theoretical breakthroughs and pilot start-ups from 1978 to 1991
From 1992 to 1997, irrational speculation and adjustment were promoted
The period of relatively stable and coordinated development from 1998 to 2003
From 2004 to 2008, prices continued to rise, and a number of regulatory measures were introduced in a new stage
From 2009 to 2011, emergencies and speculation spawned a real estate bubble
Since 2011, real estate differentiation, high inventory and small population in cities below the second tier, falling prices, insufficient housing in first-tier cities, population inflow, and price increases.
Why say China's real estate, China's economy has produced a large number of currency issuances because of the development of real estate, generated a large amount of social wealth and driven enough industrial chains.
2. Internet
1. Around 1999 was the first leap in the Internet era, and Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, NetEase, Ctrip, Shanda, and JD.com were almost all born during this time. In 1999, the craziest year in the history of China's Internet, almost all product forms in China sprouted in this year in the next 20 years, just like the rapid development of traditional industries in 1984. This year, Ma Yun, who has failed twice, abandoned the hot portal model in the United States and chose an alternative e-commerce model. In the same year, the e-commerce websites 8848, Ctrip, Dangdang, eBay, Tianya, Chinaren, Red Sleeve Tianxiang, and Shanda were launched. In January of the following year, Robin Li and six other "Baidu Seven Musketeers" founded the search engine Baidu, and the basic model of china's Internet took shape: "portal + community + e-commerce + social + game + entertainment + search", and led the wave for more than 20 years.
2. After 2001, social networking sites such as blogs, SNS, and forums began to appear, and Chinese netizens entered the personal portal stage from the information sharing stage, and during this period, China's Internet users increased, and social platforms occupied the mainstream of the Internet.
3. The story of China Search opened a new page in 2002-2003. Baidu defeated Google, and the "Lightning Project" became famous in a battle. Tsinghua's 96 Department of Computer Science and Peking University's Department of Information Management also began to fight search in 2003. In 2003, Ma Yun set up Taobao, because he raised $82 million from Investors such as SoftBank, allowing Ma Yun to dare to fight eBay in a free model.
4. In 2006, the China Internet Information Center (CNNIC) released its 18th Internet report showing that as of June 30, 2006, the total number of Internet users in China was 123 million, an increase of 20 million, an increase of 19.4% compared with the same period last year. This year's statistical report announced for the first time that 3 million people on the mainland have access to mobile phones.
5. In 2008, a number of local government leaders had direct dialogues and exchanges with netizens, and at the same time, government websites began to build online platforms to provide netizens with channels to supervise the government and make opinions and suggestions online. With the help of the Internet, China's social governance has continued to develop, and progress has directly led to the upsurge of online political inquiries.
6. In 2014, the number of mobile Internet users surpassed that of the traditional Internet. Mobile phone Internet is gradually penetrating into all areas of people's life and work, SMS, ring chart download, mobile music, mobile games, video applications, mobile payment, location services and other colorful mobile Internet applications are developing rapidly, is profoundly changing the social life of the information age, mobile Internet after several years of twists and turns, finally ushered in a new climax of development. The number of users of mobile Internet has surpassed the traditional Internet, and mobile payment and mobile shopping have become the life and death enemies of physical banks and physical stores.
7. In 2015, the 35th survey report of CNNIC of the China Internet Information Center showed that as of December 2014, the number of mainland Internet users reached 649 million, of which 557 million were mobile phone users, an increase of 56.72 million from the end of 2013. This year, China has become the country with the largest number of Internet users in the world, and it is also the country with the largest number of mobile Internet users in the world.
8. The 49th Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet Network was released: the number of mainland Netizens reached 1.032 billion.
3、5g
In 2013
In February 2013, the European Union announced that it would allocate 50 million euros to accelerate the development of 5G mobile technology, planning to introduce mature standards by 2020.
In April 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly supported the establishment of the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group as a platform for 5G promotion work, which aims to organize domestic forces and actively carry out international cooperation to jointly promote the development of 5G international standards. On April 19, 2013, the first meeting of the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group was held in Beijing.
In 2014
On May 8, 2014, Japanese telecom operator NTT DoCoMo officially announced that it will work with six manufacturers, including Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung, to begin testing high-speed 5G networks that exceed the 1,000 times network carrying capacity of existing 4G networks, and the transmission speed is expected to increase to 10Gbps. Outdoor testing is expected in 2015 and is expected to begin operations in 2020.
In 2016
In January 2016, China's 5G technology research and development test was officially launched and implemented in 2016-2018, which was divided into three stages: 5G key technology test, 5G technology solution verification and 5G system verification.
On May 31, 2016, the first Global 5G Conference was held in Beijing. The conference was co-hosted by five 5G promotion organizations from China, the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, attended the meeting and delivered an opening speech. Miao Wei pointed out that the development of 5G has become a strategic consensus of the international community. 5G will greatly enhance the business experience of mobile Internet users, meet the massive demand for Internet of Things applications, promote a major leap in the mobile communication technology industry, drive the rapid development of chips, software, etc., and will be deeply integrated with industry, transportation, medical and other industries, giving birth to new formats such as industrial Internet and Internet of Vehicles. [2]
In 2017
On November 15, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Matters Related to the Use of the 3300-3600MHz and 4800-5000MHz Frequency Bands for Fifth-Generation Mobile Communication Systems, which determines that the 5G mid-frequency spectrum can take into account the basic needs of system coverage and large capacity.
In late November 2017, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to officially launch the third phase of 5G technology research and development tests, and strive to achieve the basic goal of the third phase of tests by the end of 2018.
On December 21, 2017, at the 78th plenary meeting of the International Telecommunication Standards Organization 3GPP RAN, the first version of 5G NR was officially frozen and released.
In December 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Organizing the Implementation of the Construction Project of a New Generation of Information Infrastructure in 2018, requiring that in 2018, no less than 5G-scale networking pilots will be carried out in no less than 5 cities, with a large number of 50 5G base stations in each city and no less than 500 5G terminals in the whole network.
In 2018
On February 27, 2018, Huawei released the first 3GPP standard 5G commercial chip Baron 5G01 and 5G commercial terminal at MWC2018, which supports the world's mainstream 5G bands, including Sub6GHz (low frequency) and mmWave (high frequency), theoretically achieving a data download rate of up to 2.3Gbps.
On June 13, 2018, the 3GPP 5G NR standard SA (Standalone, standalone) program was officially completed and released at the 80th TSG RAN Plenary Session of the 3GPP, marking the official release of the first truly complete international 5G standard.
On February 1, 2018, the project declaration of the "Bloom Cup" 5G Application Solicitation Competition officially began. The competition is guided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and hosted by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group. [3]
On December 1, 2018, south Korea's three major operators SK, KT and LG U+ simultaneously launched 5G services in some parts of South Korea, which is also the first time that a new generation of mobile communication services has been commercially used in the world. The first regions to apply 5G services are seoul, the metropolitan area and the city centers of the six major metropolitan cities in South Korea, which will be expanded in the future. According to the plan, South Korean smartphone users can use 5G services around March 2019, and it is expected to achieve full 5G coverage in the second half of 2020.
On December 10, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced that it has issued a low-band test frequency license for 5G systems to China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom. This means that the frequency resources that must be used by basic telecom operators to carry out 5G system tests are guaranteed, sending a clear signal to the industry and further promoting the maturity and development of the mainland 5G industry chain.
4. New energy: solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy, energy storage equipment, lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries, etc
solar energy:
From the first crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic in 1958 to 2008, the mainland solar cell production accounted for 3/1 of the world's total output, becoming the world's largest solar energy producer for two consecutive years.
wind energy:
In 1986, in Rongcheng City, the eastern tip of the Shandong Peninsula, the Malan Wind Farm, a wind farm on the mainland, was officially connected to the grid for power generation. In order to build this wind farm, the relevant departments introduced three 55 kW units from Denmark at that time, with a total installed capacity of 165 kW. Its average annual power generation has reached more than 260,000 kWh, and its high annual power generation has reached 330,000 kWh.
In 2015, all of these units were decommissioned. Five years later, in 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power on the mainland has reached 281 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world for many years; In the first half of 2021, China surpassed the UK in the indicator of cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power, and won another "world***" in the field of new energy. At this point, the mainland has become a veritable wind power power power.
From relying on foreign technology, learning from overseas, to independent market-oriented exploration, policy support for large-scale expansion, and then to growing into a global ****, with the unremitting efforts of generations of wind power people, China's wind power technology, equipment and project development have all been in the world.
At present, the mainland wind power industry has got rid of its long-term dependence on foreign technology introduction, not only to meet the domestic market, many complete machines and key components, has been able to continue to supply to the international market.
The wind power industry has become one of the high-tech industries with international competitiveness in the mainland, which also allows the mainland to usher in a rare opportunity and situation in the field of wind power that matches its international status.
New energy technology is no longer a "rich country game" that has not been effective in investing heavily, nor is it dependent on people's sniffles and dependence on foreign technology. From upstream raw materials, to midstream manufacturing, to downstream markets, China is already far away.
lithium battery:
Mainland China has been developing lithium-ion batteries since the early 1980s. In 2000, Japan's annual output of lithium-ion batteries reached 500 million, accounting for more than 90% of the global market, while the annual output of the mainland was only 0.35 billion. With the development of technology, in order to meet the needs of social development, the mainland has introduced a series of policies to promote the development of lithium-ion battery industry: in the "Outline of the National Medium- and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020)", power lithium-ion batteries are listed as the priority development direction of high-efficiency energy material technology. With the support of a series of national policies, the lithium-ion battery industry in the mainland has made great progress, and the lithium battery industry in the mainland has entered a stage of rapid growth. Shenzhen BYD, Shenzhen BAK, Tianjin Lishen and other lithium-ion battery companies rose rapidly, in 2004, the mainland's annual output of lithium-ion batteries reached 800 million, the global market share soared to 38%, second only to Japan. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by 2013, the annual output of lithium-ion batteries in the mainland has reached nearly 4.768 billion, and it has developed into a global battery manufacturing power.
Our iconic lithium battery enterprise: CATL was founded in 2011 and listed in 2018, opening the road of rapid development.
5. Aerospace
Our aerospace development from the Long March rocket, to Yang Liwei to the sky, to the current space station, step by step has been at the forefront of the world.
Fourth, the development of the comparison
1. When Musk started his business in 1983 to do Internet games, the Internet in our country had not really started. Our Internet games first started in 2001, and the real fire was probably in 2003-2005, which is 20 years away from the United States.
2, Musk in 1995 set up zip2, and now we use the Meituan can not find the Internet application, our Meituan really rose in 2010, really hot in 2015. It's a 15-year difference with the United States.
3, Musk began to do Internet finance in 1999 PayPal is our current Alipay, we Alipay began in 2004 and in 2014 really exploded, compared with the United States for 5-10 years.
4. Musk's SpaceX was founded in June 2002. Our Long March rocket Yang Liwei lifted off in 2003, although the United States first space manned with 1961, but from Musk's statement of the United States space they have not made too substantial progress over the years, but China has kept up with their pace, so in the space this China may have largely caught up with them. The difference will not exceed 5 years.
5. Musk's Tesla began on July 1, 2003. In October 2008, the first TeslaRoadster rolled off the production line and began deliveries. But the problem of batteries has not been solved, in 2011 the emergence of the Ningde era, China vigorously promoted the development of lithium batteries. So far the best lithium battery has done is China, so in this regard we have caught up with the United States.
To be continued...
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