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"Cease production of fuel vehicles from March 2022."
Just in April, BYD publicly announced the end of the brand's nearly 20-year fuel era, and became the first car company in the world to announce the suspension of fuel vehicles. At the moment when fuel vehicles and new energy are competing, IT has thrown off its burden and chosen to go to hybrid and pure electric, but the market ripples stirred up by "abrupt stop" have not been flat for a long time.
A week later, BYD's Han series of pure electric and hybrid models officially launched a number of products, priced at 215,800-329,800 yuan. In 2022, BYD has an "ambitious" goal - to sell 1.5 million vehicles. Last year, by comparison, BYD sold more than 600,000 vehicles.
"With a few more new cars in 2022, this goal is not out of reach." People close to BYD told the Beijing News Shell financial reporter that pulling up the brand image is still very important for the current BYD, and the new brands, technologies, and products also mean that the profit performance of the brand in 2022 may still not be too good.
The wheels that start in the era of new energy vehicles are unstoppable. In the past year, auto giants have announced the future suspension or suspension of fuel vehicles at a frequency of "one in a month". "2021 can be said to be the first year of the transformation of international car companies into new energy vehicles", experts believe that in the context of global environmental protection, the speed of new energy "burning" will only continue to press the fast-forward button.
4S store exit: "Almost no one asked about BYD fuel vehicles"
"I came to the BYD 4S store 2 years ago, and in the past two years, our 4S store has hardly sold pure fuel vehicles." Recently, a sales specialist of a BYD Dynasty network in Beijing was not surprised that the fuel vehicle was discontinued. In its view, fuel vehicles are long gone.
"Our hybrid models are selling well, and now there is a large backlog of orders, and some models have to wait about 3 months." In the sales specialist's mouth, the hybrid model seems to be a selling point. "In Beijing, a market with a high degree of development, relatively high income levels, and some policy restrictions, users pay relatively more attention to BYD's hybrid and pure electric vehicle models than fuel vehicles."
Front-line salespeople keenly capture the changes in the industry. "I was at BYD for 3 years, first doing sales on Dynasty.com, and later transferring to Ocean.com. At first, I sold fuel vehicles for a period of time, but the changes in the past few years have been really too big. Another BYD Ocean Network sales specialist in Beijing told Shell Financial Reporter that in the past, the introduction of products needed to be used to back parameters, and now the brand power has come up, and users' awareness of the product is quite high. However, almost no one asked about fuel vehicles.
The salesman recalled that when he first came to BYD, the fuel version of song classic, Song Pro and other models were still on sale, and there were many users at that time. In terms of product quality, there are often feedback problems from car owners, which makes people inevitably have some headaches.
Shell financial reporters combed and found that in the past year, IND did not update the fuel series of other models in addition to the public release of Song's fuel vehicles.
Signs of "braking" in fuel vehicles are already showing in 2021. In October of that year, when Shell financial reporters visited a BYD 4S store in Langfang, Hebei Province, they learned that there were basically no fuel vehicles in the store, and in addition to the Song series models, which were still accepting orders, only a manual F3 priced at 38,800 yuan was placed in the store.
"This is the last stock car in the store, and it is estimated that there is no car in the back, so you can take it if you like it." The sales commissioner introduced it to the shell financial reporter.
The outside world expected the fierce electrification of the automotive industry, but did not guess that BYD quickly and decisively ended the production of fuel vehicles.
At the scene of the 2021 Electric Vehicle 100 People's Meeting, BYD founder Wang Chuanfu said that with the increasing maturity of batteries, motors, electronic controls and other technologies of electric vehicles in recent years, fuel vehicles have been comprehensively surpassed in terms of acceleration, noise, energy consumption, maintenance convenience, intelligence and full life cycle costs, and the time is ripe for electric vehicles to comprehensively replace fuel vehicles.
Also in June of this year, in response to the news that "the planning of future fuel vehicles has been stopped, and it will be fully replaced next year at the earliest", BYD refuted the rumor - there is no such plan at present, because the current market and consumers have demand, and partner dealers have demand.
"The news is still quite sudden." An insider close to BYD dealers told Shell Financial Reporter that for BYD, in general, fuel vehicles have "dragging their legs" factors in profits, "Han's new energy can sell for nearly 300,000 yuan, but if it is a fuel version of the model, it will certainly not sell at this price." ”
On April 3, BYD announced that it will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March and will focus on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the automotive segment in the future. In March this year, BYD's production and sales were 106,700 units and 104,900 units, respectively, of which the production and sales of fuel vehicles were "0".
Shell financial reporter combed and saw that BYD's total car sales in January and February were 185,600 units, of which the sales of new energy vehicles reached 180,500 units, and fuel vehicles have tended to be "invisible" in BYD's product architecture, and in terms of price, in recent months, the price of Song fuel version models, which account for 3/5 of fuel vehicle sales, is nearly 1/3 different from the price of Song new energy models. At present, the guidance price of the fuel version of Song PLUS is 115,800-143,800 yuan, while the price of Song PLUS DM-i has reached 152,800-202,800 yuan.
On April 12, BYD responded to the Shell financial reporter that the development of new energy vehicles has become the trend of the times, first of all, the acceleration of electrification change. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and we expect it to rise to 35% by the end of 2022.
BYD said that last year, BYD's annual production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000 units, an increase of 220% year-on-year, ranking first in China for 9 consecutive years. In March this year, the production and sales of new energy passenger cars exceeded 100,000, creating a record high. For rapid growth, BYD listed many reasons: on the one hand, at the level of technology, products, markets, policies, etc., there are more and more positive factors to promote the accelerated development of new energy vehicles; on the other hand, it is the pressure of rising oil prices, emission upgrades, energy conservation and environmental protection, industrial transformation and other pressures, which restrict more and more negative factors for fuel vehicles. In addition, many key technologies such as blade batteries, DM-i super hybrids, and e-platform 3.0 have been introduced and applied to new models.
Fuel vehicles into a minus? The high-end price of the force is going to millions
From a traditional car company to a technology car company, fuel vehicles have undoubtedly become a burden for BYD.
According to BYD's plan, in 2022, the company will form a brand network of dynasty, ocean, Denza and a high-end brand with a product price range of between 500,000 and 1 million yuan. With the previous cost-effective "e net" gradually replaced by the marine network, BYD seems to be gradually walking out of the sinking market with its own new energy vehicle products, impacting the high-end market with elements such as intelligence, safety and luxury.
Zhang Hong, secretary general of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Circulation Association, said in an interview with Shell Financial Reporter that BYD's brand positioning is power batteries and electric vehicles, and the fact that BYD is still producing fuel vehicles will bring some confusion to BYD's brand image. No longer producing fuel vehicles can further purify bydir's brand image and help BYD's new energy vehicles develop in the future.
The data shows that BYD's fuel vehicle sales began to decline rapidly at the time of the 2021 DM-i models. According to BYD's financial report data, in 2020, BYD's fuel vehicle sales were 237,300 units, and the sales of new energy vehicles were 189,700 units, and fuel vehicles were still the "main force" of the brand, and sales rose by about 2% that year. However, in 2021, BYD's fuel vehicle sales will only 136348, and the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 593745, an increase of 200% year-on-year.
In 2021, BYD has successively launched Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, Tang DM-i, Song Pro DM-i and other models, and the data of the Association shows that only the Qin PLUS DM-i model has reached 110,000 units, accounting for 3.4% of the industry's new energy vehicle sales.
A former EMPLOYEE of BYD introduced to the Shell Financial Reporter that BYD's fuel vehicles should have been discontinued long ago, so that the brand image may have a new uplift. "I have the impression that the engine of BYD's pure fuel vehicle has not been iterated for many years, and the fuel vehicle cannot sell to competitors. In addition, fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles use a look, the price difference is doubled, and users will inevitably be affected by the price difference between the price of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles. It believes that some brands of fuel vehicles are a plus for enterprises, and for BYD, they have become deductions. Therefore, the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles is not much harm to BYD, and even helps the brand to develop and improve profit margins.
In the past 20 years, BYD can be described as "born in the grass", and the brand is also a long way to go. Whether it is its own battery company or the acquired Qinchuan Automobile, it is not too famous in the C-end market, and the labels carried by the brand are similar to those of many independent brands, which are "grounded". In the early years, the electric vehicle products were lackluster in terms of price and brand power, and the high-end Denza brand established in 2013 also declined in cooperation with Mercedes-Benz. At present, according to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the sales volume of this brand of one car, the two configurations of oil and electricity in 2021 is less than 5,000.
Nowadays, with the rise of the national tide, the brand's own battery safety and Chinese-style design elements are quite favored by users, and the average price of BYD's bicycles will increase to 150,000 yuan in 2021. At the same time, the average price of Weilai bicycles is about 410,000 yuan, and the average price of Mercedes-Benz bicycles is about 350,000 yuan, and BYD still has a lot of room for improvement.
"After stopping production of fuel vehicles, it is to stabilize the dynasty and ocean network, and impact the high-end through deforestation and the new brands launched in the second half of the year." Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, introduced to Shell financial reporters. "As BYD unloads the burden of traditional fuel vehicles and raises the brand style, its financial performance will be even better."
BYD's financial report shows that corporate profits fell by about 28% in 2021 to 3.045 billion yuan, although it is a high level in the past 5 years, there is still room for improvement. In 2022, the company will hit the sales target of 1.5 million units. In contrast, in 2021, the company will sell more than 600,000 vehicles and accumulate 400,000 orders, and the main problem at present is to expand production capacity.
Shell financial reporter learned that BYD will launch a seal with a price range of 200,000-300,000 yuan, a Denza MPV of more than 300,000 yuan, and a new brand of 500,000-1 million yuan during the year, and the first model may be an off-road model. This series of actions is all about trying to brand upwards. BYD's fuel vehicle team has also quietly transferred to the hybrid technology research and development team, continuing to work on the application of internal combustion engines in hybrid technology.
Zhang Xiang believes that in addition to stopping production of fuel vehicles and launching new brands and high-end models, BYD's battery and chip technology also has a good reputation, which is at a high level in the industry and can help the brand upwards. If combined with commercial vehicles, cloud rail, upstream raw material layout and other upstream and downstream of the industry chain is quite comprehensive business, as well as a large number of core technologies, in the next 3-5 years, the gap between corporate brand value and Tesla will gradually narrow.
Zhang Hong said that BYD gave people the impression of a technology-based enterprise in the past, and it did not attach as much importance to brand marketing, brand planning and brand activities as it did to technology research and development. With the advent of dynastic series products such as Tang and Han, mid-to-high-end brands began to call for the shaping of bydder brand. In 2019, BYD established a brand management center for the first time, and in 2021, it established a brand and public relations business department. At present, with the core technology and user trust, we are steadily developing the high-end market.
Zhang Hong believes that if you want to complete the brand upward, the key problem is how to distinguish or even cut with the traditional brand image, and launch a new image in the future, which is very important for the BYD brand upward.
Local car companies are electrifying and competing to overtake in curves
In fact, mainland local enterprises have already entered the new energy track.
In the fall of 2009, the country's 10 millionth car was born in Changchun with a golden orange glow. That is, in the year when people celebrate China's becoming a big automobile country, the fork in the road between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles has quietly emerged.
In November of that year, BAIC established Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "BAIC BJEV"), becoming the first independently operated new energy automobile enterprise in China.
In December of the same year, Changan's first pure electric vehicle, Changan Benben MINI, rolled off the production line. Zhu Huarong, then vice president of Changan Automobile Co., Ltd., put forward a grand goal at that time: within 3 years, Changan new energy vehicle research and development and industrialization is expected to invest 1 billion yuan to build an innovative industrial base. In 2014, Changan Automobile will produce and sell 150,000 new energy vehicles, and in 2020, it will produce and sell more than 500,000 new energy vehicles.
In January of the following year, BYD's electric vehicle E6 appeared in the new car catalog released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which also meant that E6 obtained a "quasi-birth certificate" and became BYD's first pure electric vehicle.
Perhaps the outside world does not realize that new energy will burn in the past few decades, so that the global auto giants stand at the crossroads where choices need to be made.
In 2017, BAIC BJEV, which has been established for many years, completed a B round of financing in July, and soon after, it was listed on the backdoor and became the "first stock of new energy vehicles". Changan Automobile, which once made bold remarks, became a car company that "eats crabs", and in October 2017, it took the lead in proposing to "completely stop the sale of traditional fuel vehicles" among traditional Chinese car companies. At that time, Changan Automobile announced that it would invest more than 100 billion yuan in the new energy field in the next eight years, and launched 21 pure electric models and 12 plug-in hybrid models.
Although from today's perspective 5 years later, fuel vehicles are still very important to Changan Automobile, this decision still led in 2017. After years of development, BYD has sold more than 10,000 vehicles for seven consecutive months in December 2017, with a cumulative sales of 116,200 vehicles throughout the year, leading the national new energy vehicle market.
In June 2018, Haima also announced its product plans, announced that it would eliminate traditional fuel vehicles in 2025, and announced that it would launch a new energy modular platform after 2020, and would develop new models including compact SUVs and crossovers on the new platform in the future.
In addition, FAW Group said that it will accelerate the development of electrification and plans to launch more than 50 new energy vehicles during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including more than 30 independent brands. In 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for more than 20%.
Great Wall Motors will also set the inflection point in 2025 - before the arrival of this year, Great Wall Motors will launch a total of 12 products including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on five model platforms, involving great wall brands, beam car brands and Euler brands.
"In fact, the new energy transformation time of local car companies in the mainland is very early", Zhang Xiang analyzed to the shell financial reporter that some local car companies in the mainland do not have deep automobile research and development accumulation and development advantages, and it is difficult to compare with traditional car companies with a hundred years of development experience, but in the new energy track, everyone is just in contact, so the new energy track is the direction that local car companies are very willing to develop and try to overtake in the corner.
On the other hand, the mainland policy is also constantly supporting the development of car companies to new energy vehicles, and at the same time, to a certain extent, it has put forward higher requirements for the development of fuel vehicles. For example, Zhang Xiang said that the emission standards for fuel vehicles have been upgraded from China V to China VI, but there are restrictions on capital and technology for local car companies such as Haima Automobile to upgrade their technology, and instead of investing a lot of money to upgrade the emissions of fuel vehicles, it is better to directly transform new energy.
In 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits" (hereinafter referred to as "double integration"), three years later, the five departments revised the points management measures, further completed the points management mechanism, formulated two kinds of points for fuel consumption and new energy, and achieved the goal of energy-saving information by setting up points to assess enterprises: if the car enterprises do not meet the standards, negative points will be generated, and enterprises that meet the standards will generate positive points.
According to the current double integral management rules, passenger car companies can only declare new products within the fuel consumption limit before their negative points are offset to zero. In order not to suspend the declaration and even production of some products, there are several roads in front of car companies, one is to offset the negative points by producing new energy vehicles, but the production capacity release and market sales of new energy vehicles need a certain amount of time. The second is the average fuel consumption credit within the enterprise. In addition, you can purchase a corresponding amount of positive credits for new energy vehicles from other car companies.
At the beginning of 2021, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, publicly stated that due to the impact of the double integration policy, the double points generated by the six major automobile groups in 2020 are all negative, and the positive integral price of new energy vehicles continues to rise, so there is a common phenomenon of increasing losses in car companies, taking Changan Automobile as an example in 2020 due to the double integral bicycle profit reduction of about 4,000 yuan.
Zhang Xiang said that the declining share of Haima Automobile in fuel vehicles is the result of the transformation of new energy on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has become an opportunity for Haima Automobile to overtake in curves and change tracks.
"Mainland China's energy-saving and environmental protection requirements for the automotive industry have a long history, and the requirements for automobile energy consumption will become more stringent in the future." Zhong Shi, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Shell Financial Reporter that the practice of double integration is actually to force enterprises to save energy and reduce emissions or pay economic costs, while traditional car companies generally have both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, and will increase efforts to develop new energy vehicles to meet national requirements in the future. Nowadays, electrification is already the trend of the world, if the traditional car companies do not take the road of electrification, there is no other way out.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, suggested that domestic car companies should take electrification as the core goal, achieve strong electrification transformation, and try to promote the development of electrification through stronger intelligence, which is difficult in the short term, but "accelerating electrification is the only core goal of enterprise transformation."
2021 into the first year of transformation of new energy? The giants have entered a period of iterative acceleration
In 2021, the transformation of new energy by global auto giants seems to have been pressed the accelerator button, and almost at the frequency of "one a month", they have announced the future suspension of production or suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles.
First, in February, Jaguar Land Rover announced that it would transform into a pure electric luxury brand and no longer produce fuel vehicles from 2025. In March, Volvo announced that it would become fully electrified by 2030, becoming a pure electric luxury brand, and that all pure electric models would only be sold online. In the future, Volvo will "phase out all models in its global lineup that use internal combustion engines (ICE), including hybrid vehicles" and "strive to become a leader in the fast-growing high-end electric vehicle market."
In April, Honda announced that it will electrify all of its models and end production of pure internal combustion engine vehicles by 2040 in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and promote the development of a zero-emission powertrain program. Shell financial reporter combed the car companies' plans for the Chinese market, Honda hopes to launch more than 10 electrified models in the Chinese market by 2023, and occupy more than 50% of the market share of electrified models in 2025.
Since May, the top three Ashkenazi have been transforming. Veteran luxury brand BMW announced that it expects half of its current engine powertrain to be discontinued by 2025, and half of its car sales will come from electric vehicles in 2030.
In June, Volkswagen Audi's CEO announced that Audi would discontinue diesel, gasoline and hybrid vehicles from 2026. The following month, Mercedes-Benz also announced that it will be fully prepared for fully pure electrification by 2030, and from 2025, all newly released model architectures will be pure electric platforms, and each model will provide users with pure electric version options. In order to promote these transformations, between 2022 and 2030, Mercedes-Benz will invest more than 40 billion euros in pure electric models.
Ultra-luxury brands are not far behind, Lamborghini announced at the beginning of the year that this will be the last year for Lamborghini to use the traditional internal combustion engine, Lamborghini has allocated 1.5 billion euros for the transformation of new energy, and plans to launch a pure electric model after 2025.
Also in June 2021, Volkswagen, a veteran German car company, announced that it would stop producing gasoline and diesel engine cars in Europe as early as 2033 to accelerate the development of electric vehicles.
"2021 can be said to be the first year of the transformation of new energy vehicles by international car giants", Zhang Xiang said that in 2021, the environmental protection policies in Europe and the United States have changed greatly, and domestic new energy vehicles have also seen subsidies decline.
Zhang Xiang said that Volkswagen and Toyota's fuel vehicles have brought a lot of profits to enterprises, and once they quickly "cut" fuel vehicles, they will lose a lot of profits. Therefore, in the process of transformation, enterprises must also consider issues such as speed and sales. In order to promote integration, some car companies should try to use the same platform to create the same model to reduce market development costs, such as Volkswagen's MEB platform, which can be produced in Europe or in China, and can share the research and development costs.
Cui Dongshu said that the European new energy vehicle market has exploded as early as 2020, and the sales of new energy vehicles have increased by 120% year-on-year, because of the strict requirements of EU regulations, forcing car companies such as Germany and France to produce new energy vehicles in large quantities to achieve a cliff-like decline in carbon emissions. With the acceleration of the new energy process in the European market, new energy vehicles have replaced traditional vehicles as a new market blue ocean, and the future development potential is huge.
According to the new EU emission regulations, from 2020, 95% of new cars produced by European car manufacturers must achieve an average co2 emission of no more than 95 grams per kilometer; in 2021, 100% of new cars must meet the above standards. Failure to comply with the standard is punishable by a fine of €95 per gram of CARBON dioxide per vehicle.
In fact, many countries have announced the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, of which the Netherlands, Germany, India and parts of the United States will start banning the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, and France and the United Kingdom will ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2040.
At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in late 2021, the issue of stopping the sale of fuel vehicles in 2040 was raised, when Volvo, GM, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, BYD, Jaguar and Land Rover were involved. Cui Dongshu said that the subsidy intensity of new energy vehicles in major European countries is higher than that of China, which will become a strong guarantee for demand and a long-term escort for carbon emission policies. Among the top six european sales countries, except for Norway and the Netherlands, there are large subsidy policies and supporting tax preferential policies. In this context, car companies have increased their efforts to transform the electrification of automobiles.
Beijing News shell financial reporter Bai Haotian Lin Zi Editor Wang Jinyu Proofreader Zhang Yanjun
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