影响GDP增速的三驾马车：投资、消费和出口。 Let me give you an analogy, China's economy is like a car, GDP is equivalent to the speed of the car. 车子是一部好车，过去是在高速上开，轻松开到120千米/小时，现在产业结构调整了，全球经济不振，行驶到了限速的隧道中，即使跑车也只能开到60千米/小时。
If you look at the speed of the cars around you, almost all the cars on the road are slow, the United States, the European Union, Japan, it's not a problem with the car, it's because of the speed limit. 减速而非失速，这个隧道就是全球经济的需求在放缓，去杠杆、去产能带来短期阵痛，择绿水青山弃金山银山等因素，这其中是质与速的角逐，折射出中国经济增长之路，正走向由高速到高效的痛而可喜的转变，这是由经济周期和全球的人口结构所导致的。
1. The front-wheel drive slows down
The first two wheels of China's economy are the most powerful, one is called real estate investment, the other is called infrastructure investment, China is known as the "infrastructure demon", they are collectively called investment pull.
The real estate cycle is reincarnated once every 20 years, and a person can encounter two real estate cycles. The first time is to get married and just need to buy a house, the second time is to improve the demand for home purchase, if the economic conditions are good, you may choose the third time to buy a house in the pension environment.
China's real estate cycle began in 1999, according to the real estate cycle law divided into three waves, the first wave is from 2000 to 2007, after 2009 and then a wave, 2013 and 2014 a wave, after three waves, the high point of the real estate cycle is basically established.
This was followed by a downward trend in house prices. But by 2015, everyone suddenly found that the house was selling well again, and in 2016, the real estate in the core area of the first-tier city soared, but this was not a real estate restart, but a speculation. 2017年上半年左右，中国的房地产反弹结束，到2019年末，一个房地产周期的循环20年，15年上升，5年下降。
Don't think that real estate can't be bought back when it is sold, there is nothing in this world that only goes up and down. House prices reached a low point in 2019, and after selling the original house, you will find that you can buy a lot of very cheap assets, and the cost performance has changed. For example, when the child is older, the school district house in the city center is replaced by a development zone closer to the place of work, and with the convenience of life brought by the subway, private cars, and supporting facilities, the house that is farther away from the city center is more cost-effective. This makes the second-hand housing transaction speculate on the house again.
When China's economy was at its peak, orders outstripped demand, and commodity production and sales were booming. Because the demand continues to be hot, enterprises will continue to invest, to start construction, set up factories, expand production, and even continue to build roads, bridges, and houses.
If you develop well and accumulate a certain amount of rich capital and resources, you will naturally expand your territory and expand your sub-bases. However, when the expansion is gradually saturated and investment can no longer support us to continue to maintain rapid growth, the two main output drivers of China's economy have slowed down significantly.
So we have to find a way to export our capital and products. Promoting the "Belt and Road" and establishing the "AIIB" is actually to direct our strong capital strength and investment capabilities to the Eurasian economic belt, which is essentially a process of creating demand.
2、后轮驱动被抑制
The last two wheels of this car in China's economy are consumption and export. The first two wheels do not work, and the back two wheels are "stressful".
In 2021, real estate has introduced various regulatory policies, housing is not speculated, school district housing is cancelled, purchase restrictions, etc., so that the property market slammed on the brakes. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020, first Wuhan, the Spring Festival everyone has been grounded, even if the resumption of work and production later, various isolation and protection measures, or make the noisy city become silent. Today, the epidemic in Hong Kong, Jilin and Shanghai is making a comeback, which is even worse than that in Wuhan.
The economy driven by real estate and infrastructure investment has stagnated, the mobility of epidemic personnel has been poor, the butterfly effect has spread, airline losses, losses of the five major banks, catering and tourism, building materials and decoration, home appliances and furniture, green decoration, etc. are also Waterloo, do not buy houses, go out less, and let economic growth slow down. People's incomes have decreased, and their spending power has naturally weakened.
Exports are the most important wheel of the car of China's economy. In the decade since its accession to the WTO, it has continued to export strong momentum and boost economic growth.
Breaking down trade barriers, just like the highway on holidays is free of tolls, so all the way is smooth, made in China, with a low gross profit cost price, small profits and high sales, in the international market to kill a blood road, the saved costs are put into the pocket into profits.
However, long-distance raids, years faltering, wheels will wear out, middle age becomes old, the generation of only children has grown up, due to changes in demographic structure, the proportion of young workers in the total population continues to decline, and China's economy has suffered from aging.
Rising labor costs and rising wages mean that corporate profits are falling. An even more difficult external environment is testing China.
After experiencing the US subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, the WTO has become a popular and deserted market, and the decline in purchasing power in Europe and the United States has made China's foreign trade enterprises even worse. In today's global economic situation, trying to rely on the wheel of export to drive the speed of China's economy is like dancing a solo dance.
Consumption, this is the only wheel that can still be turned in this small car of China's economy. However, even its growth rate began to slow down. In the past, China's aunt had a strong purchasing power, speculating in houses, buying gold, it is reasonable to say that they should go to receive a Chinese economic best contribution award, they are obsessed with sea shopping and overseas purchases, group flights to Japan, buy empty rice cookers in Japanese shopping malls, and even toilet lids are not spared, and buy things like chopping melons and cutting vegetables and grabbing cabbage. Our abundant spending power feeds back the global economy.
From this point of view, our consumption capacity still has great potential, as long as the standards and standards of Chinese manufacturing continue to improve, the demand for products brought about by the upgrading of middle-class consumption is certain, and the speed of this wheel can certainly be improved.
3. Treasure in the trunk
To sum up, the speed limit in front, the encounter with tunnels, and the low pressure of tires have reduced the speed of this car in China's economy to 60 km / h. At this time, everyone is generally confused and anxious, and it is time to open the trunk of this car. There are two weapons there: one is monetary policy, and the other is technological innovation.
The European Union, the United States, and Japan have all used quantitative easing to print money when they encounter economic difficulties, which is to use the monetary policy toolkit.
However, although printing money is an antidote, it is also a poison, and the consequences are endless. The reason why these economic powers are desperate is because the interest rates in these advanced economies have fallen to zero or even negative interest rates, and there is really nothing that can be done. The United States first released water, and now it has released a signal of interest rate hikes to slaughter the fat fish that are raised.
But for China, we have been in a high interest rate environment for a long time, so there is a lot of room for interest rate cuts, since 2014, the central bank has continuously reduced interest rates, we have entered a long-term interest rate reduction cycle, and China's interest rates will continue to decline in the future.
The central bank invented "chutney powder" (SLF, standing lending facility), "spicy powder" (MLF, medium-term lending facility) and other "fancy dishes" to improve the capital environment. In this way, if the financial expenses of the enterprise can be continuously reduced and the cost comes down, even if the income does not increase in the territory, the enterprise may also make more money because of "throttling".
Another tool in the trunk is called technological innovation. The mode of scientific and technological innovation is divided into two types: business model and technological innovation.
The epidemic has gone out less, such as selling in department stores and now selling online; for example, things that were originally charged are free for you to use first, and then provide better products and services, so that you can pay for them with satisfaction. There are takeaway online shopping without going out, and even vending machines have entered the community, which is called model innovation, and they can bring opportunities to make money.
The other is called technological innovation. For example, why is your mobile phone getting smaller and faster, and even today your watch is a pocket computer. This is thanks to the magical little thing called the transistor, which can get smaller and smaller. Intel has shrunk the chip manufacturing process from 20 nanometers to 10 nanometers, or even a few nanometers. It's like being in a room with an incredibly small space where everyone is thin and lean, so that the room with limited capacity is crowded with more intelligent people, and they come together to exert greater power.
Through technological improvement and upgrading, to create a high-quality product that has never been different, then China's economy will bid farewell to the era of high quality and low price, and enter the era of "good value", everyone has money and is willing to spend money to buy more high-quality products and services. DJI, Huawei, Baidu and other innovative technologies, drones, chips, driverless cars, flying cars, etc. have a new market economy.
With the advent of the mobile Internet era, intelligent replacement of people's work more and more, what we have to do is to conform to the development trend of the times, learn more knowledge, enhance their own capabilities, once we complete the industrial upgrading, China's economy this car is back on the road, becoming the world's largest economy is not a dream!
改变从自身做起，一个老司机，不是要把车开多快，而是要在行驶的过程中把车开稳，安全最关键。 Capable people, people who seize business opportunities, can turn the crisis into opportunity, only if you do it, can you cut out your own piece of cake!
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