On April 6, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán held his first press conference after winning the parliamentary election in the capital Budapest. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
On April 5, local time, two days after Hungary's current Prime Minister Orbán won his fifth prime ministerial term by absolute superiority, European Commission President von der Leyen said the European Commission was ready to launch an "conditional mechanism" against Hungary.
If the mechanism goes into effect, it would be the first time the EU has taken such drastic punitive measures against a member state and would also mean that Hungary loses a total of 6.14 billion euros in EU transfer payments each year, which is more likely to amount to more than 40 billion euros.
The immediate trigger is that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree requiring international customers in "unfriendly" countries and regions to buy Russian gas in rubles, and the European Commission called on its member states to insist on using euros and dollars for settlement, but Hungary did not intend to cooperate – Orbán made it clear that it was "not difficult" to buy Russian gas in rubles.
On April 6, local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Siyaldo Peter also responded specifically that Hungary is studying ways to pay for the purchase of Russian natural gas, which is not a matter for the European Union.
Voters line up at a polling station in Budapest, Hungary, on April 3 to wait for their vote. The quadrennial Hungarian parliamentary elections kicked off on the same day. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
"Additional mechanisms" tailored for Hungary?
As an international organization of a "confederation" nature, the fundamental norms of the Eu are based on an inter-member contract known as the Basic Treaty of the European Union. Among them, the Treaty of Nice, which entered into force in 2003, introduces the principle of "safeguarding the unified EU legal system" and provides for sanctions mechanisms in article VII of the Basic Treaty of the European Union" "Recognizing and jointly safeguarding the unified values of the European Union". But the sanctions provisions at the time were limited to denying fouling member states the right to vote in the European Parliament and the European Commission.
In 2020, in response to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU set up a "recovery fund" with a total amount of up to 750 billion euros, and launched a huge bailout plan linked to the 1.1 trillion euros, seven-year EU budget.
The countries of NorthwestErn Europe, which are the main contributors, believe that in order to avoid the improper use of this funds by the governments of the violating member countries, a "conditional mechanism" should be established to constrain it. Under this mechanism, the European Commission has the power to freeze payments to the "recovery fund" and the member state's share of the EU budget once it has been found to be in violation.
This "conditional mechanism" has aroused strong dissatisfaction among Eastern European countries, especially Hungary and Poland, believing that the mechanism is suspected of "power politics" and "interference in internal affairs", and trying to obstruct its adoption, but failing.
After the "conditional mechanism" was adopted in the European Union in January 2021, Hungary and Poland sued the European Court of Justice, arguing that the mechanism was illegal. On 16 February 2022, the European Court of Justice ruled that the mechanism was legitimate.
In early March 2022, the European Commission published guidelines for an "conditional mechanism", but at the time European Commission President von der Leyen said he was "not in a hurry to start immediately" and urged impatient MEPs to "better wait until after April 3".
What day is April 3rd? It is voting day for hungarian elections. Some analysts pointed out that the European Commission hopes that Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, who has been re-elected for many times, will lose the election, so that the mechanism will not be immediately applied to Hungary, so as not to cause division within the EU.
Despite the unprecedented formation of a "united front" in the history of Hungary's six opposition parties before the election, Orbán's Youth Democratic League won a decisive 67.8% of the vote and 135 of the 199 seats, winning him his fourth consecutive term as prime minister.
Two days later, the "conditionality mechanism" was announced for the first time to be activated for an EU member state.
EU Budget and Administration Commissioner Hahn unabashedly said that the document for Hungary to launch the "mechanism" had long been prepared and deliberately waited for the results of the Hungarian election to be announced only to avoid suspicion.
According to professional estimates, if the "conditionality mechanism" is activated 100%, Hungary will lose a total of 6.14 billion euros in EU transfer payments every year, which is more likely to amount to more than 40 billion euros. This will put a heavy strain on Hungary's economic and fiscal balance.
As observers in Brussels put it, signs from the failure of the leaders of the European Union and most of its member states to congratulate Orbán on his re-election, to the first announcement of the launch of the Conditional Mechanism, suggest that it was largely tailored to "Orbán's Hungary."
On March 24, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán arrived at the EU headquarters to prepare for the EU summit. On March 23, ahead of the EU summit, Orbán said the Hungarian government strongly opposes sanctions on Russia's energy sector. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
"Retrograde" is not just because of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis
In fact, Orbán has long been accused of being "pro-Russian" by the EUROPEAN Union. On February 24, after the outbreak of russian-Ukrainian military conflict, Hungary refused to provide military aid to Ukraine.
This time, Hungary more openly opposed the EU's "unified position on gas payments" against Russia, becoming the only EU country to agree to Russia's "gas settlement in rubles", resulting in strong dissatisfaction among many EU member states and politicians, especially many members of the European Parliament.
Frozen three feet is not a day's cold, and the discord between "Hungary in Orbán" and the European Union has a long history.
Back in April 2010, the year Orbán came to power through elections, then-European Commission President Barroso questioned his "new media law" and eventually forced Orban to compromise and remove controversial chapters.
At the end of 2011, the European Commission accused Hungary of "judicial reform" suspected of violating the EU's "separation of powers principle", and Hungary was dissatisfied and complained to the Court of Justice of the European Union. In November 2012, the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled that Hungary had lost the case, hampering its reforms.
At the end of 2011, Hungarian legislation reformed the central banking mechanism, and the European Commission requested its abolition, which was rejected by Hungary; subsequently, the European Commission tried to interfere in the revision of Hungary's Basic Law, which was also strongly resisted by Hungary.
In 2017, the EU tried to intervene in Hungary's restrictions on foreign funding from non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the two sides engaged in a four-year game that ended in a compromise between the Hungarian side.
On November 16, 2020, Hungary, together with Poland, boycotted the EU's vote on the "Seven-Year Budget" and the "Recovery Fund", delaying the passage of these two "life-saving straws" for more than half a month, which was considered to be "Orbán's revenge against the EU"...
From this, it can be seen that the game between Orbán and the EU predates the introduction of the "conditional mechanism". The "Russian-Ukrainian issue" is only one of the "results", and it is only the latest and most favorable excuse for the EU to pick out the differences between each other and use the topic to play.
Of course, while the European Commission exalted Article VII and the "conditional mechanism" to Hungary and Orbán, the inefficiency of the EU's decision-making mechanism is also known worldwide. Some EU legal experts pointed out that it takes at least 6 months to 9 months just to "go through the procedure".
Moreover, this "program" is only a principled framework that is not operable. Because any possible provision involving a specific freeze or reduction in EU transfer payments would need to be supported by at least 55 percent of the EU's member states – meaning at least 15 of the 27 EU member states would vote in favour.
In this process, Orbán, who seeks independence within the EU with a "retrograde" attitude, will undoubtedly face more challenges. Source: Beijing News