With the end of the South Korean presidential election and the successful test of intercontinental ballistic missiles by the DPRK, the future trend of inter-Korean relations has attracted special attention. Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, warned that if South Korea chooses to engage in a military confrontation with North Korea, the North could use nuclear weapons. Previously, due to double standards in the work of the UN Security Council and the growing conventional weapons gap between the two Koreas, Pyongyang decided to reconsider a series of unilateral confidence-building measures and continue to develop strategic weapons.
Kim Yo-jong warns of "destruction"
According to KCNA reported on April 5, Kim Yo-jong, vice minister of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, warned on the 4th that if South Korea chooses to engage in military confrontation with North Korea, the Dprk's "nuclear combat forces will have to carry out their own tasks." Kim Yo-jong said: "The main mission of nuclear force is not to get involved in a (Inter-Korean) war in the first place, but in a state of war, its mission becomes to eliminate the military power of the other side with one blow." In order to seize the initiative in the early stages of the war, burn the other side's will to war, prevent protracted war, and preserve its own military strength, the nuclear combat force will be mobilized. If the situation develops to this point, the South Korean army will face the tragic fate of total annihilation. ”
Previously, North Korea successfully conducted a test launch of the Martian Gun-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on March 24, and North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un directed the launch activities at the scene. Kim Jong-un said that the DPRK's defense forces have the strength to not fear any form of military threat and "will continue to make every preparation for a long-term confrontation with US imperialism to completely stop the dangerous military attempts of US imperialists." This is the first time in nearly five years that the DPRK has tested such a long-range missile, which has aroused great concern in the international community.
After the successful test, the tension in inter-Korean relations has increased. South Korean Defense Minister Seo Wook presided over the reorganization ceremony of the Army Missile Strategic Command and the Air Force Missile Defense Command on April 1. Yonhap News Agency analyzed that this move is a warning message for the DPRK. Xu Xu said at the ceremony that at present, the ROK military has a large number of missiles with greatly increased range, accuracy and power, and can quickly and accurately strike all targets in North Korea. Xu Xu particularly stressed that the military remains on alert, and once it finds obvious signs of missile attack, it has the ability to accurately strike at the source of the attack and its logistics and command departments.
Yonhap News Agency reported that the policy of eliminating the source of attack as soon as signs of projectiles are found is a strategy of the South Korean military's strategic strike system to deal with the threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Yonhap News Agency commented that the strategic strike system is a euphemism for the pre-emptive "chain of kill" and "large-scale punishment and revenge plan" proposed by South Korea's previous Conservative government, and it is rare for the current government defense minister to publicly talk about this system.
Why did North Korea resume missile test launches?
Experts estimate that North Korea tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 13,000 to 15,000 kilometers (depending on the weight of the warhead) on March 24. That is to say, the vast majority of the U.S. mainland is within the maximum range of North Korean missiles. Experts point out that judging from the size of the missile, it can carry multiple independently guided warheads.
The United States immediately condemned North Korea's launches and said it would seek a new resolution from the United Nations Security Council that would not only impose harsh sanctions but also suggest a possible use of force against North Korea.
Russia's "Independent" believes that for those who know the situation, the launch is not a surprise. As the situation on the peninsula picked up in April 2018, North Korea announced the suspension of nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. However, since then, there has been a lack of progress in DPRK-US contacts, and the United States has not made much concession on issues such as sanctions against the DPRK and US-ROK military exercises.
On January 19, 2022, North Korea's leaders announced the results of their assessment: The U.S. "policy of hostility" toward North Korea has not changed. After the 2018-2019 U.S.-North Korea Leaders' Meeting, Washington imposed dozens of sanctions on Pyongyang. U.S. and South Korean troops stationed in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula continue to receive the latest offensive weapons and conduct several joint military exercises.
"It is precisely the growing conventional arms gap between North and South Korea that is forcing Pyongyang to seek ways to change its imbalances. North Korea is clearly unable to compete with U.S. military-industrial complexes, whose products flow into the southern part of the peninsula in large numbers," the Russian newspaper The Independent wrote, "in this context, Pyongyang decided to reconsider a series of confidence-building measures unilaterally announced in 2017-2018." In his speech in January 2020, Kim Jong-un announced: "North Korea will continue to develop strategic weapons until North Korea's security and development needs are met." ”
In addition, North Korea accuses the U.N. Security Council of "double standards" in its work — Washington lifted restrictions on the range of Missiles in Seoul in May 2021, but banned North Korea from using ballistic technology for any launch activities, including satellite launches, which amounts to banning North Korea from possessing any missiles (rockets).
"This means leaving North Korea unarmed in today's world, and it's no wonder that the missile (rocket) part of the resolution has caused particularly strong blowbacks in Pyongyang." Aleksandr Zhebin, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the events of March 24 suggest that North Korea may resume intercontinental ballistic missile launches, possibly even nuclear tests.
Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea's test firing of a new intercontinental missile is the 12th "armed demonstration" since the beginning of the year, just four days after four rockets were fired into the western waters of South Pyongan Province on the 20th of last month. The New York Times believes that North Korea's recent frequent test firings are intended to pressure the United States to return to the negotiating table and make contacts on issues such as sanctions concessions.
Where are inter-Korean relations headed?
Yonhap News Agency said that in the case of south Korea and the United States issued a "prior warning" a few days ago, North Korea's test firing of intercontinental missiles will be regarded as "stepping on the red line", and South Korea and the United States may take tough measures to deal with it.
South Korea's Ministry of Defense released a message on March 25, and Defense Minister Xu Xu had a telephone conversation with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the 24th, and the two sides discussed plans to respond to North Korea's launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The two sides also agreed that the ROK and U.S. militaries would continue to maintain close consultations and stressed the importance of maintaining a solid defensive posture. The two sides agreed to further discuss security cooperation between the ROK, the United States, and Japan, and to continue to make efforts to achieve the total denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Austin reiterated the united States' unwavering commitment to South Korea's defense.
At a time of political change in South Korea, Moon Jae-in, who had advocated engagement with North Korea, will leave office in May, while Yoon Seok-yue advocated toughness toward North Korea during the campaign, and the South Korean government's policy toward North Korea may change. Therefore, some analysts believe that the DPRK side may intend to test the ROK's response to the situation.
For South Korea's incoming conservative new government, north Korea's movements could also pose a challenge. Chad O'Carroll, chief executive of the consultancy North Korea Venture Group, expects that a series of tit-for-tat chain reactions could be triggered as North Korea resumes nuclear tests, the possibility of more joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises increases, and South Korea welcomes a new conservative president.
News and image source: Independent, Reference News, New York Times, some of the pictures are from the Internet
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