According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the inventory of commercial housing has reached a record high! How to understand inventory, what does this mean for house prices?
1. What is commodity residential inventory?
Narrow inventory: refers to the commercial residential floor area that has not yet been sold among the commercial residential floor areas that have been approved for pre-sale for sale at the end of the reporting period.
Inventory in the broad sense: refers to the sum of the number of saleable houses and the construction volume of residential land in the commercial residential market at the end of the reporting period. That is, the narrow inventory area + the total construction area that has not started construction + the area that has started construction and has not obtained a sales certificate.
2. Inventory of China's property market
At the end of February, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the area of commercial housing for sale was 570.26 million square meters (narrow inventory), an increase of 60.03 million square meters from the end of 2021, a record high.
Generalized inventories increased by 3% year-on-year to 3.85 billion square meters, and some weak second-tier and third- and fourth-tier tiers increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
Mainly in second- and third-tier cities, inventories have risen significantly, and the specific urban differentiation is more serious
3. How should we accurately understand destocking? To combine the dematerialization cycle
Inventory destocking cycle = commodity residential inventory (narrow sense) / average transaction area of commercial housing in the past Three months
That is, according to the current inventory and the past sales speed, how many months can be sold out.
Specifically, there has also been a significant differentiation in first-tier cities, with Beijing's deindustrialization cycle exceeding 2 years, Guangzhou and Shenzhen being between 10-15 months, while The Shanghai deindustrialization cycle has dropped from 5.35 months to 4.67 months.
Among the 30 second-tier cities, there are 7 cities such as Harbin, Dalian, Changchun, Lanzhou, Hohhot, Qingdao, Zhengzhou and other cities with an inventory digestion cycle of more than 2 years, most of which are inland cities in the north, and the transaction is relatively bleak;
The situation in third- and fourth-tier cities is more severe, with a deindustrialization cycle of up to 23.25 months, which has gradually approached the level of the epidemic in 2020.
4. What kind of deindustrialization cycle is more reasonable?
According to the view of the real estate industry, a city's deindustrialization cycle is relatively healthy between June and December.
Less than 6 months is a sign of insufficient supply, and more than 12 months is an oversupply.
Figure: Zhuhai deindustrialization cycle
But you can't mechanize, understand the dematerialization cycle, can't see a city deindustrialization cycle of 24 months, you feel that the city house must not be worth buying.
Specific to the city, the deindustrialization cycle should be dynamically looked at, and it must be combined with historical data to get an accurate judgment.
According to the formula: inventory destocking cycle = commodity residential inventory (narrow sense) / average transaction area of commercial housing in the past Three months
The deindustrialization cycle of a city may be 24 months at the beginning of the year, and then it becomes 12 months in the middle of the year, which is completely true.
If the speed of sales is greatly increased and the speed of supply of commercial housing is reduced, the deindustrialization cycle can be quickly reduced. In Zhuhai, for example, the deindustrialization cycle fluctuates between 8-13 months.
5. Summary
Overall, at present, the inventory and dematerialization cycle of commercial housing in the country are at a high level. In the face of this situation, although many places have successively introduced multiple favorable policies such as reducing down payments and reducing mortgage interest rates, there is no obvious trend of inventory reduction, and it can be considered that the pressure to destock is very large, especially the stock of generalized inventory is very large.
At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the different situations of various types of cities, the first line, the second line, the third and fourth lines are different, and China's real estate is not a chess game.
At the operational level, if you pay attention to the urban deindustrialization cycle for a long time, the price reduction pressure is large, you can hold the coin and wait and see; if the urban deindustrialization cycle you pay attention to is moderate, the price reduction pressure is general, and if the price promotion is in place, you can consider action.
In the long run, the developer level is also very cautious about taking land due to cash flow problems, and the supply is shrinking; but at the buyer level, "housing and not speculation" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, the motivation to buy houses is still insufficient, and the future market needs further observation.