"I believe everyone is looking forward to an end to the outbreak as soon as possible, but the virus and the disease itself are not at the mercy of our will. When the sudden epidemic comes, how to effectively control it and achieve a balance, in science we often talk about the 'triangular model'. Liang Wannian, head of the expert group of the National Health Commission's Leading Group for Epidemic Response and Handling, introduced in the CCTV "News 1+1" program that the "triangular model" of diseases and viruses, the resistance and ability of the health system, and public health and social interventions should achieve an optimal balance.
Q: Under what conditions can I return to normal life?
Liang Wannian: Theoretically, there are several aspects to the end of the epidemic: the virus mutation is becoming weaker and weaker, its pathogenicity and its spread are getting weaker and weaker, and the harm to people's health and life is getting smaller and smaller. Vaccines are more effective, not only to prevent severe illness and death, but also to prevent infection, and the ability to prevent severe illness and mortality is higher. In addition to the existing effective drugs, there may be more effective drugs, or even specific drugs, which can block the disease at an early stage. The epidemic situation in other countries in the world is also decreasing, and the pressure on our external defense imports has become smaller.
Taken together, look at the virus itself, look at its harm, look at the weapons and means we have, these can be combined to discuss when we can adjust our strategies, when we can return to normal life.
Q: Why insist on dynamic zeroing?
Liang Wannian: The spread of Omikerong is particularly fast, and if no intervention is applied, its spread will be exponential. Although the severity of the disease caused by Omikeron is not as severe as that of Delta and some previous epidemic strains, it still has a certain incidence of severe illness and fatality. If the population base it spreads is large, especially for some vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and chronic disease patients, the total base is large, and then multiplied by its certain severe illness rate and mortality rate, then the total number of deaths and severe patients will be large, which is bound to put pressure on normal medical needs. In such cases, effective measures must be taken to contain it.
Q: Why are epidemic prevention measures not abolished as in foreign countries?
Liang Wannian: The protection strategies and specific measures adopted by various countries are based on their prevention and control concepts. China's prevention and control concept is "people first, life first". Since the emergence of the epidemic, China has been insisting on dynamic zeroing, and constantly optimizing prevention and control measures, it can be said that we have protected the people from the so-called natural infection through herd immunity, natural immunity and disease. We mainly build an immune barrier by strengthening the resistance through active vaccine immunization.
From an international point of view, some countries choose to "lie flat" is two kinds of immunity coexist, one is through natural immunity, that is, group infection, it can be said that a considerable proportion of the population has been infected with the new crown virus, and the other is through active vaccine immunization. In this case, if China also chooses to "lie flat" and does not adhere to dynamic clearance, especially the current vaccination rate, especially the vaccination rate of the whole process and the reinforced needle is not completely high, it is not enough to form a solid immune barrier, which is bound to make the large group of the elderly, vulnerable and vulnerable people prone to infection.
In this case, we must adhere to the dynamic zeroing policy and adhere to our strategies and measures without wavering, which is also a window of time for us. If we strengthen vaccination and accelerate scientific and technological research and development, including drug research and development, vaccine research and development, I think we may also have a chance; maybe Omilon has changed again, becoming more moderate, and the transmission rate and pathogenic rate are lower, and that is our best opportunity. Therefore, at this stage, we adhere to the general strategy and general policy unchanged, which should be the best choice and also in line with China's anti-epidemic reality. (Ren Xuan)
