Today is the 23rd day of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict,
According to Ukraine's latest war report, nearly 1,700 Russian tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed, causing a large number of casualties.
Moreover, Ukraine mentioned that Russia had invested 97 tactical troops, of which 15 had been devastated and 18 had lost combat effectiveness.
In addition, the Ukrainian army claimed that at least 5 Russian generals had been killed by the Ukrainian army.
Of course, Ukraine declared that its losses were only 1300, which was 1/10 of Russia's, and this war report can only say that there is a lot of water.
The Russians only announced 498 killed and 1,600 wounded on March 2, and never reported any losses since.
With the continuous destruction of Ukrainian military bases and equipment, how is this war fought in Ukraine now?
On March 10, a video exposed the Battle of the Ukrainian Army, armed with a large number of Western anti-tank weapons, lurking through the forest, and most importantly, using groups as units.
On March 17, a small Ukrainian town called Voznesensk thwarted the Russian offensive.
Because the Russian military does not harm civilians, does not cut off communications, water and electricity, etc., equivalent to all operations exposed to Ukrainians, drones, satellites, social media.
It is mentioned that the local Ukrainians used the Viber app to send Russian coordinates to the Ukrainian artillery unit to guide the Ukrainian artillery bombardment.
And it is emphasized that every Ukrainian person shares information.
In the end, the Russians suffered heavy losses and were forced to retreat.
In order to prevent being destroyed by anti-tank weapons, some Russian tanks had to weld steel plates on the top to protect themselves, but even so, many were destroyed by the Ukrainian army.
Under the pressure of anti-tank weapons, tanks have become the most unsafe equipment.
In fact, in this battle, the equipment has been completely unequal.
The latest $800 million in military reinforcements on March 16 includes:
800 Stinger air defense systems;
2000 javelins, 1000 light anti-armor weapons, 6000 AT-4 anti-armor systems: ;
100 tactical unmanned aerial systems;
100 grenade launchers, 5000 rifles; 1000 pistols, 400 machine guns, 400 rifles;
More than 20 million rounds of light weapons ammunition, grenade launchers and mortar shells;
25,000 sets of body armor;
25,000 helmets;
In just one week, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than $1 billion in equipment.
And the European Union has previously given Ukraine a lot of military aid, including but not limited
Germany provided 1,000 anti-tank rocket launchers (bazookas), Sweden provided 5,000 anti-tank rocket launchers, Belgium also provided 200 anti-tank missiles, Norway provided 2,700 anti-tank weapons, and Denmark provided more than 2,000.
Germany supplied Ukraine with 500 Stinger MANPADS and the Netherlands with 200 MANPADS.
Germany provided 5,000 helmets, Sweden provided 5,000 helmets and 5,000 body armor sets, and Finland provided 2,500 assault rifles and 150,000 rounds of ammunition.
Germany provided 10,000 tons of fuel, France decided to add a batch of defensive armaments and fuel to Ukraine, Finland provided 70,000 field rations, and Belgium provided 3,800 tons of fuel.
Germany supplied 9 howitzers, 14 armored vehicles...
Not only weapons, but also drones, satellites, communications and other support.
What is the quality of the personnel of the Ukrainian army?
Obviously not as bad as the Russians thought.
Here we have to mention Ukraine's defense minister, Reznikov, who embarked on military reforms after the crimean events in 2014.
Ukraine's military reform is clearly based on U.S. standards and consists of two main items:
Basic combat unit miniaturization.
The flattening and informatization of the command system.
Ukraine fully accepted this concept of military reform, and in 2020, Reznikov forcibly disbanded the Ukrainian army above the battalion level, and after the basic combat unit was decentralized, it was all miniaturized, and the combat tasks were issued by the joint command center in the rear.
The joint command center in the rear includes but is not limited to satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, early warning aircraft, intelligence networks, sensors that go directly to the front line, cameras, etc.
Traditional warfare has become an a la carte combat.
For example, the Ukrainian army found a certain team of Russian troops through satellites, early warning aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, intelligence, etc., and directly arranged for the Ukrainian army near the order to ambush, or mobilized artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles to directly bomb.
Each combat unit has beacons and positioning that can directly determine the location, contact the nearest, and strike directly.
Discover the Russian army, place orders, attack, ambush, clean up the battlefield, retreat.
Russia, on the other hand, has wanted to eliminate Ukraine's living forces from the beginning, but it has rarely heard of the abolition of the formation, because it has been miniaturized and there are no large troops.
To achieve such a goal of military reform, it is necessary for the military to be highly informationized and to possess high-tech and high-precision equipment.
For example, the Stinger missile has an AI function, which can track heat sources, automatically identify targets, rely on algorithms to accurately hit targets, and leave when you are finished, and you can't find anyone who hits you.
Cartridge weapons such as stingers and javelins plus combat unit miniaturization and informatization are modern warfare.
At Kherson airport, for example, satellites and drones saw Russian helicopters parked and fired missiles directly, and at least seven Russian helicopters were destroyed.
This is why modern warfare is fought in information technology and high technology.
In the first few days of the conflict, the Russian army was so strong that it occupied many ukrainian cities. However, due to logistical supplies, equipment, secrecy, and Ukraine's continuous acquisition of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons and equipment, the war is now glued.
As we enter this century, militaries around the world are also undergoing reforms.
The United States, European countries, Ukraine, and Russia are also carrying out reforms.
In 2008, Russia began a "new look" military reform of the Russian military, which was carried out by then-Defense Minister Serdyukov.
By 2020, the entire reform will cost more than $750 billion.
The reform is mainly to establish new military regions, and the most direct thing in the command system is to change the "military region-division-regiment" system into a "military region-brigade-battalion" system.
By March 20, 2012, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced that military reforms had largely ended, that the main objectives of reform had been achieved, and that Russia had a brand new army.
The military reform also touched the interests of many people, and Defense Minister Serdyukov was soon ousted and Shoigu took over as the new Defense Minister.
After Shoigu took office, he adopted a "sharp brake" on military reform, stopped the "division reform brigade", and resumed the "division-regiment" organization.
In 2015, the Russian army re-established the tank group army and restored the "army-division-regiment" structure.
After Shoigu took office, he established the National Defense Command Center, established a unified information platform, integrated military enterprises, reformed military academies, and coordinated various departments.
Elites are also selected to conduct real combat honing in the Syrian battlefield, and the Russian State Defense Command Center can reportedly monitor and coordinate 6,500 military and paramilitary operations at the same time.
And since 2016, Russia has prepared a detailed plan for defense procurement, training, etc.
A year ago, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu also said that the main reform of the Russian military has been completed and meets all the requirements of the most modern army in the world today.
Moreover, since 2012, the Russian Army has received a total of 15,500 pieces of weapons and equipment of various types, the Air and Space Force and the Naval Aviation have received more than 1,500 fighters of various types, and the Navy has received more than 190 combat ships of various types. The treatment of Russian soldiers is also increasing year by year.
The Russian army seems to have become a brand new army.
Serdyukov and Shoigu, respectively, carried out military reforms,
One is to reduce the number of officers, strengthen the front line, reduce the number of combat units, and change to a "division-brigade" system.
A strengthened officer, to create an integrated platform, procurement and reception equipment standardization, the restoration of the "army-division-regiment" system.
In the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Russia won the war in an instant,
The 2022 Ukrainian-Russian conflict is now repeatedly tug-of-war.
I have to say that modern warfare is obviously different from the previous way of playing.
At present, at least 5 generals have been killed, indicating that the Russian army is very brave, the general is personally present in the front line, and it also shows that there is a problem with the current command system, and it is obvious that there is a problem with the current command system.
Shoigu's Russian military elite honed in Syria has not brought much change to the Russian army, and the system has been changed back for 10 years, and the real combat effectiveness of the Russian army is not as good as it thinks.
In Ukraine, when the communication system fails, the Russian army sometimes uses telephones and analog radios directly, which also makes it easier for the Ukrainian army to intercept and listen.
It is also difficult to keep the actions of the Russian army secret, and the surveillance, filming, and sharing data of local Ukrainians can easily expose the actions of the Russian army.
When the target is exposed, it is directly targeted.
Because of logistical supplies, convoys of tanks and armored vehicles had to stop because there was no fuel, and were eventually destroyed by the Ukrainians or abandoned by the Russians.
This time, not many Russian air and space forces participated in the war, and even sent advanced Su-57 to participate in the war, I don't know whether to hit the red eye or participate in the actual combat test.
Because the roads were muddy, Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and trucks had to drive on open roads, which became live targets such as drones and anti-tank weapons.
The biggest question is not whether the Russian army is brave, but the logistical supply, which is a test for the entire Russian army if it drags on for a long time.
The system of command and coordination of the various forces within Russia is also a problem.
From February 24, the first wave of Russian troops went out, without heavy equipment, without disturbing the people, and with insufficient supplies, because everyone thought that Zelensky would soon step down.
Many people thought that Ukraine would be as easily occupied as Crimea was in 2014, but it did not.
As a result, after the tug-of-war, no one was comfortable, and Ukraine, which was fully supported by the West, was getting smoother and smoother.
Now it seems that Russia's modern army is not doing well, whether it is a failure of military reform, or a question of coordination, or for other reasons.
In short, many people commented that a smaller, better equipped, and more modern Russian army did not play a real role.
What will happen after that? Will it replicate the pattern of the Second Chechen War?
In fact, this time it is Russia that single-handedly challenges the entire West, the economy has been comprehensively sanctioned more than 5500, the West has issued weapons on the battlefield, Ukraine has sent people, and launched an all-out fierce war with the Russian army.
For Russia, it has entered a full-scale war of attrition, with a large consumption of weapons, personnel, supplies, etc., Ukraine has the assistance of Western countries, and Russia can only fight for the bottom.
The longer it fights, the more it consumes, and Russia will not imitate the Soviet Model of Falling into Afghanistan and achieve so-called strategic goals.
In the drag, Ukraine is devastated, Russia's national strength is not as good as before, and it will not be good.
For the United States and Western countries, constantly giving Ukraine weapons, dragging Russia back, consuming Russia, and ultimately making Russia collapse is the ultimate goal of the West.
Russia and Ukraine are not stupid, and they should be very clear, so they will continue to negotiate peace.
There have also been peace talks agreements, 15 items have been broken, and there are also "significant progress" in the negotiations.
Talks about Ukraine's neutrality and guarantee of Ukraine's security;
restricting the dearmament of other Ukraine,
The status of Crimea and the eastern regions can be discussed,
Much progress has been made in the ceasefire and withdrawal of troops.
The two sides also said that in the future, it is expected to promote face-to-face talks between Putin and Zelenskiy.
Ukraine will certainly not agree to all the terms of the six-point peace talks proposed by Russia, and bargaining will still be necessary, and the amount of counteroffer will depend on the performance of the two sides on the battlefield.
Now Ukraine has more weapons, such as "spring knife" drones, "starlight" missiles, more anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft weapons, the overall situation is getting more and more difficult for Russia,
Ukraine's economic losses have exceeded $500 billion, killing so many people.
Russia is also not happy, and if the peace talks continue, it will not be able to stand it.
However, the chips for peace talks are all obtained from the battlefield.
Moreover, in the 23 days of the conflict, the Russian army killed 5 generals, as well as many school officers and lieutenants, which can only show that there is a problem with the communication system and command system of the Russian army.
In 1992, the first Gulf War gave us an insight into the integration of land, sea and air;
In 2003, the second Gulf War gave us an insight into electronic informatization;
In 2022, the Ukrainian-Russian conflict gave us a glimpse of a high-tech, digital war with AI as the core.
Shoigu, who spearheaded the reform of the Russian military, made everyone praise, and as a result, the Russian army was stretched in the face of the modern war, and the Ukrainian Vietnam War, which was armed by the West, became more and more courageous.
Why has Ukraine been able to resist Russia for so long?
This is the war of modernization armed with high technology and AI crushing old-fashioned thinking.
Whether Russia's strategic goal of eliminating Ukraine's living forces can be achieved is a question mark.
Before the final peace talks, there may be more confrontation.
Instead of getting into a long and hard battle, it's better to sit down and talk.
In the final peace agreement, Russia will most likely get some of what it originally wanted.
Whether Ukraine signs an agreement or not depends on the collusion of the United States and European countries.
The longer it drags on, the only one who can win is the United States, and the biggest loser is The Ukrainians, the Russian people...
Russia has clearly overestimated itself, underestimated Ukraine, and ignored the changes of the times.