Produced by | Explorer Deep Technology (aka Explorer Tanker)
Author | Yin Taibai
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The Mobile World Congress (MWC), held around March every year, is a showcase for major mobile phone manufacturers to show their muscles, as well as a showcase for the development direction of the smartphone industry.
In 2022 MWC, folding screen mobile phones have become one of the most eye-catching categories, Huawei, Samsung, Glory, TCL, OPPO and other mobile phone manufacturers have shown their latest folding screen mobile phone products.
In fact, after the hardware configuration "can't be rolled", the smartphone began to seek a breakthrough in the way it was opened. More than two months ago, folding screen mobile phones ushered in a wave of intensive releases.
On January 10, Honor released its first folding screen mobile phone Honor Magic V; on December 23, 2021, Huawei released the folding screen mobile phone Huawei P50 Pocket; on December 15, 2021, OPPO launched its first folding screen mobile phone OPPO Find N.
A smartphone channel source revealed to "Tanke Deep Technology" that Vivo's first folding screen mobile phone will be released as soon as April, and its screen suppliers are Samsung and BOE, and the hardware configuration and performance are at the top level.
Earlier, Motorola, Samsung and Xiaomi have also launched folding screen mobile phones. So far, major mobile phone manufacturers other than Apple have completed the layout of the folding screen mobile phone track.
Folding screen mobile phones were once regarded as "future mobile phones", but now, "future mobile phones" are no longer "the game of a few people". On this segmented track, which has not yet been fully accepted by the public, it is crowded with mobile phone manufacturers who are eager to run.
Since the first decline in global smartphone shipments in 2017, while launching a charge to the high-end market to stabilize the basic disk, while exploring and mining the incremental market to open up a new growth curve has become the consensus of many mobile phone manufacturers.
Folding screen mobile phones will soon become a new "place where soldiers must fight", after all, this is in line with the development trend of impacting the high-end market, but also can maintain the basic disk of the main business, and is also conducive to opening up a new growth curve.
"In 2022, MWC has sounded the horn of the 'global folding screen war', more and more mobile phone manufacturers will join the battle, and folding screen mobile phones will also achieve rapid development, and are no longer limited to niche markets." Li Yang, a person in the mobile phone industry, told "Tanke Deep Technology" that whether it is from the perspective of supply and demand relationship or industrial chain maturity, folding screen mobile phones will usher in a full outbreak in 2022.
1. The eve of the outbreak
"Ordinary mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones will become the mainstream of smart phones, and the folding screen mobile phone market can grow 10 times in 2022, which will be a new growth area." At the 2022 MWC, Honor CEO Zhao Ming said.
Jiang Yiming, a senior digital enthusiast, told "Explorer Deep Technology" that the large screen is the development trend of smart phones, consumers will increasingly pursue the ultimate experience, and the audiovisual experience brought by the large screen is richer and more three-dimensional, which prompts mobile phone manufacturers to collectively exert efforts in the direction of folding screen mobile phones, "The average size of mobile phone screens from 3 inches to 4 inches took five years, and from 4 inches to 5 inches it took less than two years." ”
"Folding screen mobile phones have entered the eve of the outbreak", and many smartphone channels have also expressed the same views to "Tanke Deep Technology".
Some macro-level data underpin this view. According to the latest survey data of Qunzhi Consulting, the global shipment scale of foldable smartphones in 2021 will be about 7.21 million units, an increase of about 171.9% year-on-year. In 2022, the global shipment scale of foldable smartphones will reach about 14.4 million units, up about 99.6% year-on-year, and it is expected to exceed 70 million units in 2025.
For comparison, according to the data of the panel supply chain research and adjustment agency DSCC, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones in 2019 was only more than 500,000 units, and in 2020, this number will only rise to 3 million.
The doubling of shipments confirms that the folding screen mobile phone market is ushering in a period of rapid growth. In the smartphone market, which has been in a downward trend for several years, folding screen mobile phones have struggled to kill a bloody road.
Graph /Photo Network, based on VRF protocol
Yang Kai, a smart phone supply chain person, has a lot of feelings about this, "Three years ago, when the folding screen mobile phone just entered the public vision, the development cost was high and the yield rate was extremely low, resulting in an extremely limited supply of folding screen mobile phones. Although the supply is still limited, it is in short supply because folding screen mobile phones have become a hot commodity. ”
Driven by the doubling of shipments, the folding screen mobile phone supply chain is increasing its production capacity.
For example, TCL Technology said that the company's t4 flexible AMOLED (referring to the "active matrix organic light-emitting diode", is a display technology) production line phase I is in full production, by stepping up the rush, the second and third phases have completed the construction of production capacity; Jingyan Technology also said that it will steadily promote the expansion of MIM (Metal injection Molding, metal injection molding process) production capacity according to the predictability of the order, considering that the assembly of the hinge will occupy the plant, In the future, further expansion of the plant is not excluded.
At present, the front cover material of folding screen mobile phones is mainly CPI (colorless polyimide) and UTT (ultra-thin glass). Market research institute CINNO Research pointed out that as cover manufacturers gradually increase technical reserves and supply chain layout, the market size of UTG covers will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2022, the front cover of China's folding screen mobile phone UTG will be about 1.1 million, and will continue to grow to nearly 5 million units in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 65% from 202 to 2025.
In March 2021, Kaisheng Technology announced that it will increase its capital by about 1.025 billion yuan to build the second phase of the UTG project, planning a production capacity of 15 million units per year. In addition, Huijing Display, Guoao Technology, Vogue Optoelectronics, and other domestic manufacturers have also carried out construction planning for UTT production lines.
The supply chain is in full swing, the demand side is more hot, and "one opportunity is difficult to find" has long become a common phenomenon.
For example, the Honor Magic V sold out in just one second after its first sale on January 18. Nearly two months after its launch, Honor Magic V still needs an appointment to purchase, and as of March 9, 13,000 people have made reservations at the Honor JD.com self-operated flagship store.
Not only online channels, but also offline channels such as mobile phone stores and cyber cities, the sales of Honor Magic V are even more crazy. A digital city stall owner in Jinan, Shandong Province, told "Tanke Deep Technology" that the glory Magic V is still out of stock, and it will take about half a month to get the spot, "When it was first sold, the original price of the 12GB+256GB version was 9999 yuan, but it had to be increased by 4000-5000 yuan to get it." ”
Because some popular folding screen mobile phones are really difficult to grab, and even derived the generation shooting business. The auction business is to have someone to help consumers snap up, and consumers have to pay about 100 yuan for the auction after the success of the snap.
"The sales of folding screen mobile phones are still relatively good, and folding screen mobile phones like Huawei, OPPO, and Honor are often sold out." A Beijing channel provider told "Tanke Deep Technology", "Since OPPO hit the price of folding screen mobile phones below 10,000 yuan, the popularity of folding screen mobile phones has increased significantly." ”
Subsequently, he urgently added a special counter for folding screen mobile phones in a conspicuous position in the store.
"Only when the market has demand, can we drive the supply chain to invest in research and development, thereby promoting the rapid development of the supply chain and reducing the defective rate, and after the supply chain matures, it will further reduce the cost and price of folding screen mobile phones, continue to expand market demand, and finally form a benign closed loop." Li Yang analyzed.
Jiang Yiming also holds a similar view, which believes that folding screen mobile phones have the strength to become the main machine, and consumer demand for folding screen mobile phones will further grow with the price of lowering, "if the price is right, there will be more consumers willing to buy folding screen mobile phones." ”
2. Why is it difficult to sink?
Although the heat and volume of sound have risen sharply, a fact that cannot be ignored is that the folding screen mobile phone market is still a niche market.
According to statistics from market analysis agency DIGIMIES Research, global smartphone shipments will be about 1.32 billion units in 2021, while folding screen phones account for less than 0.6%.
"The relatively small proportion of shipments of folding screen mobile phones means that the growth space is very large, but the essence of growth is that it is in the stage of 'from scratch'." Li Yang said, "If you follow the historical development trajectory of smart phones, when folding screen mobile phones enter the stage of 'from having to good', the sinking market will become a place where soldiers must compete." ”
For mobile phone manufacturers, it is more difficult and costly to expand the sinking market, but this market must not be abandoned.
On the one hand, online channels are difficult to radiate to the sinking market, and the logistics and distribution costs are higher; on the other hand, when the market capacity of first- and second-tier cities gradually becomes saturated, the sinking market will bring more increments.
However, the current sales of folding screen mobile phones in the sinking market are not optimistic.
A county-level channel provider did not put too much thought on the folding screen mobile phone, which told "Tanke Deep Technology" that the folding screen mobile phone is not the choice of most consumers in the sinking market, "the price of the folding screen mobile phone is still high, the monthly sales are only a few, consumers will not pay." In contrast, smartphones that are still 2,000-3,000 yuan sell better. ”
A xiaomi home staff in the county also revealed to "Tanke Deep Technology" that folding screen mobile phones are not very good to sell in the local area, and few people usually pay attention to it.
Consumers in the county also said that the folding screen mobile phone is expensive, in addition to the screen can be folded and there is nothing new, and the longer the screen of the folding screen mobile phone is used, the deeper the crease, which is unbearable, "This is irreversible, very affecting the price of the second-hand time."
"The price range of folding screen mobile phones is almost the same as Apple's, or even higher than Huawei, why spend nearly 10,000 yuan to buy folding screen mobile phones with obvious shortcomings in hardware configuration and application ecology?" Another consumer living in a third-tier city was puzzled.
Another fact that cannot be ignored is that Apple still has a strong brand appeal in the sinking market, and even the new form of folding screen mobile phones is difficult to match.
At Apple's spring conference on March 9, Apple released the iPhone SE 3 equipped with A15 bionic chip and supporting 5G, with a starting price of 3499 yuan.
Photo / iPhone SE 3 (iPhone Official)
Although the iPhone SE 3 has not changed much in appearance and overall design, its biggest selling point is the high cost performance, and the price range is lowered to the price range of the mid-range model, throwing an olive branch to Android users and consumers in the sinking market.
In fact, consumers in the sinking market have long become the main buyers of Apple's mobile phones.
In September 2019, a set of data released by JD.com showed that from January to August 2019, the sales growth of the iPhone in the sinking market was 5 times that of the first- and second-tier cities, and the sales growth rate of the sinking market was much higher than that of the first- and second-tier cities. During the "6.18" period, Tmall data showed that Apple's transactions in the sinking market increased by 170% year-on-year, nearly 1 times higher than that of first- and second-tier cities.
"The launch of the iPhone SE 3 can attract more consumers in the sinking market into the Apple camp, while also driving the sales of other Apple ecological products and the growth of software and subscription services." Li Yang analyzed that Apple's strategic price reduction may be a dimensionality reduction blow for folding screen mobile phones that have not yet gained a foothold in the sinking market.
3. Popularity is still hindered
Folding screen mobile phones entered the eve of the outbreak, but the price of tens of thousands of yuan at one time made many consumers like a fish in the throat.
Among the folding screen mobile phones listed in 2019 and 2020, the Samsung Galaxy Fold, Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip are priced at 15999 yuan, 16999 yuan and 11999 yuan respectively, while the price of Huawei Mate X is also as high as 16999 yuan, and even the price of Royole FlexPai 2 is 9988 yuan.
Until entering 2021, OPPO Find N will pull the price of folding screen mobile phones down to 7699 yuan, but folding screen mobile phones are still regarded as "rich people's toys".
As of now, the average price of folding screen mobile phones released by major mobile phone manufacturers is about 13,000 yuan, and according to the data of Ai Media Consulting Research Institute, the average price of global smart phones is only 2,061 yuan.
The high price has become a major obstacle for folding screen mobile phones to open up the mass market.
Yang Kai explained to "Tanke Deep Technology" the reason for the high price of folding screen mobile phones, "The cost and yield of folding screens are not as good as ordinary screens, which directly increases the price of finished products." ”
Indeed, according to the DSCC, a panel supply chain research agency, Samsung's 7.3-inch folding screen production costs about $180, which is much higher than the screen production cost of the iPhone 13 Pro Max, which is only $105.
The high cost of folding screens can be seen in the repair and replacement prices. According to incomplete statistics, the price of Huawei P50 Pocket replacement folding screen is 3579 yuan after the discount, the preferential price of Huawei Mate X2 replacement of the inner screen is 3999 yuan, the internal screen maintenance price of Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 3 is 4420 yuan, and the internal screen maintenance price of OPPO Find N is 4800 yuan.
Photo / Galaxy Z Fold 3 (Samsung Official)
It can be seen that the price of replacing the folding screen is almost equivalent to buying a brand new smartphone.
In addition, the yield rate of the hinge is not high, which also makes the price of folding screen mobile phones high. "The hinge belongs to the precision structural parts, and its durability determines the bending life of the folding screen mobile phone, and the lack of the hinge design structure will lead to the folding screen mobile phone after folding The gap becomes larger, aggravating the screen crease and other issues." Yang Kai said.
The cost of hinges is equally expensive. OPPO senior vice president Liu Zuohu once revealed that the cost of the water droplet hinge used on OPPO Find N exceeded 100 US dollars, which is 1/10 of the final price.
High cost is doomed to high price, high price directly limits the shipment of folding screen mobile phones, the direct consequence of the relatively small proportion of shipments is that the application adaptation work is difficult to promote, and the poor application adaptability seriously restricts consumers' willingness to buy.
A software development engineer told "Explorer Deep Technology", the folding screen has horizontal folding and external folding, as well as vertical folding, folding screen size is not the same, and there are internal and external screens, different forms and sizes will lead to many problems in application adaptation, if the folding screen mobile phone sales are not high, then the adaptation work will only give priority to most of the models used by users.
"In fact, the adaptation work itself is not difficult, but the difficulty is to adapt to all the different forms and sizes of folding screen mobile phones on the market." said the above-mentioned person.
Liu Zuohu also said that the challenge of application adaptation is greater than the hardware, to talk about adaptation one by one, including their own system applications should be designed separately, some innovative user experience and even redevelopment, "The application adaptation workload of folding screen mobile phones is four to five times that of mainstream mobile phones, and may even be six times." ”
"Folding screen mobile phones can indeed make up for the lack of experience brought about by the small screen of mainstream mobile phones by expanding the screen, but this is only an innovation in form, there is no innovation in the use experience, and it does not show the functions that are different from mainstream mobile phones." Jiang Yiming believes that folding screen mobile phones are not yet irreplaceable, and in the long run, this is also a reason to limit the opening of folding mobile phones to the mass market.
In Li Yang's view, although the early significance of folding screen mobile phones at this stage is still greater than the practical significance, the market should give mobile phone manufacturers some patience, "Folding screen mobile phones still need some time periods to precipitate and improve, and folding screen mobile phones will not be just 'rich people's new toys'." ”
*Li Yang, Jiang Yiming, and Yang Kai are pseudonyms in the text; the inscription in the text is from: Photo Network, based on the VRF protocol.