Zhang Wenhong posted in the early morning: The most difficult period in the two years since the fight against the epidemic was a long winter night or a cold spring?

@Dr. Zhang Wenhong posted in the early morning of the 14th that after more than two years of fighting the epidemic, the whole country has worked together to reject the virus outside the country, maintaining a very low infection rate and case fatality rate. However, after the Spring Festival, Hong Kong quickly entered the fifth wave of the epidemic, and it took only more than a month from the prevention of 1 case to the overall loss of control. This wave of Theomewon BA.2 is very fast, and most of the mainland and Hong Kong are this one.

The domestic epidemic is currently in the early stages of an exponential rise. When our team monitored the number of infections, it was found that the mainland had been in a national low-level epidemic of sporadic cases throughout February, but it had been well controlled, and the total number of cases was within 200. However, since the beginning of March, it has only taken 11 days from 119 cases per day on March 1 to 3122 cases per day on March 12, which has occurred under the situation of national active monitoring and prevention and control of the new crown.

The most difficult period in the two years since the fight against the epidemic was a long winter night or a cold spring? Source: @Dr. Wenhong Zhang

Due to the large number of cases in a short period of time, it is inevitable that there will be some panic across the country, and Shanghai is no exception. Shanghai's precise prevention and control At the time of the spread of the Aomi Kerong BA.2, due to the sudden occurrence, late start, and fast virus, it is still in the stage of running with the virus, and it feels very difficult.

In the rapid containment of the spread of the virus and the control of a large area, the temperature in Shanghai, which is usually the most distinctive, seems to have declined with the increase in the tension of the fight against the epidemic. In fact, our battle with the virus will continue for a long time, but the rhythm of prevention and control cannot be chaotic, and everyone's confidence in the next stage of prevention and control cannot be lost. At present, in order to achieve zero social clearance, although Shanghai has not stopped, life is continuing, but the pace of life has begun to slow down, and quickly began to carry out fine control and screening of key areas. We believe that the Omikejong BA.2, no matter how fast, will be subject to the slowing down of the pace of life. As long as we slow down, the virus can't go fast.

At the same time, Hong Kong compatriots are fighting fiercely with the fifth wave of the new crown epidemic, but they have also accumulated a lot of experience in fighting the virus. This afternoon, I discussed for hours with virologists at the University of Hong Kong. We all have a highly consistent view of the future:

1. The virulence of the virus is really significantly reduced, and the vast majority of cases of death in Hong Kong in this round of the epidemic have obvious underlying diseases in addition to being older and a high-risk factor. In other words, those who have been immunized normally and have been vaccinated, no matter what kind of vaccine, as long as it is strengthened, are basically fine. For this virus, dispelling fear is the first step we have to take.

2. Of the 2266 cases we have received in Shanghai in the past six months, most of them are imported cases from overseas, and 94% have been vaccinated. Of these 2266 patients, only 0.1% were severely ill, and none were critically ill (requiring intubation) or death. Some people say that 94% of patients who have been vaccinated are also infected, indicating that the vaccine is useless. This is unreasonable. Vaccination rates for international travelers are now high, reaching more than 90 percent, with less than 5 percent of them screened for nucleic acid positivity at the time of entry. If you look at the 5% of the people who are infected, of course, most of them have been vaccinated, which can be understood as there is still a chance of breaking through the infection after vaccination. But the rate of severe illness and mortality is really lower than that of the flu.

3. Hong Kong data, Singapore and the United Kingdom data all show that not vaccinating is not necessarily okay, because the virus has become relatively weak. But the vast majority of people who have not been vaccinated. In the current outbreak in Hong Kong, 89.4% of the deaths were not vaccinated or received only one dose of the vaccine. In deaths aged 80 or over, 91.5% were not vaccinated or received only one injection. According to the mortality analysis, the overall mortality rate of those who received one dose or no injection was 2.03%, compared with 0.09% of those who received two injections, a difference of 23 times.

4. On March 10, the British "Daily Mail" said that due to the mass infection and high level of vaccination, including the loss of a large number of people in the process of suffering the group infection, the new crown pneumonia in the UK has been less lethal than the flu. The case fatality rate fell sevenfold to just 0.03 percent. Since Omiljung has become mild, in countries that have achieved widespread vaccination and natural infection rates, the coronavirus may now not even be as deadly as the flu.

But these are not the reasons for us to lie flat, and we should have a very clear idea of the future fight against the epidemic, instead of arguing all day long whether to clear zero or coexist.

1. The case fatality rate of the virus is already very low, and in countries where herd immunity has been achieved, the case fatality rate is already lower than that of influenza. However, if China opens up rapidly now, it will cause infection of a large number of people in a short period of time, and even the lowest case fatality rate will cause a run in medical resources and a temporary shock in social life, causing irreparable harm to society and families.

2. A considerable proportion of people who are now elderly and suffer from underlying diseases on the mainland have not been adequately vaccinated due to fear of the side effects of vaccination, and once the infection is widespread, the consequences are unimaginable. In the next stage, we must protect this part of the population no matter what.

3. Judging from the recent epidemic response situation across the country, whether in terms of psychological or social resource allocation, we are not ready to deal with a large number of cases at the same time. Now that it is fully open, there will be a run on medical resources, resulting in unpredictable excessive deaths.

4. Therefore, it is very important for the mainland to continue to adopt a social zero-out strategy in the near future, and to suppress the fifth wave of the extremely fast-spreading Omilon at a level that is completely controllable. But that doesn't mean we're going to be a permanent lockdown and full-testing strategy.

5. Whatever lasts, it must be gentle and sustainable. We must take advantage of the rare opportunity period and window period brought about by the inevitable arrival of social clearance, and prepare more complete, intelligent and sustainable coping strategies, including: the third injection of the elderly, as well as better vaccine and vaccination strategies, oral drugs that can be widely supplied, widely available home testing reagents that can be afforded, graded diagnosis and treatment strategies that are effectively trained and rehearsed, and the process of future home isolation. The next larger-scale import is the complete prevention and control system and the preparation of sufficient medical resources when it is superimposed with the local epidemic. A few days ago, a reporter asked me why I can't lie flat after receiving so many vaccines, and I said that these preparations are not done, can I lie flat?

This epidemic came very suddenly, not so much that winter has not yet passed, but rather a spring cold, but when we see the road ahead and the spring that will come, what is there to be afraid of?