【The sharp decline in social finance in February: not bearish, only fearful!】 February social finance data fell year-on-year, and far below expectations, will it lead to a sharp decline in the stock market?
In fact, the data of February is not directly related to March. For example, social financing soared in January, and the stock market did not rise much in February.
The water level that determines the rise and fall of water in March is the precipitation in March, yesterday's sun does not dry today's clothes, and last month's precipitation will not wet this month's clothes!
Of course, some people say that the decline in the social finance data in February indicates that the fundamentals are not good, which will lead to a decline in the valuation of the stock market.
But the most sensitive data reflecting the fundamentals is not social finance, but the purchasing index (pmi), which remained in the expansion range in January and February, both the manufacturing index and the non-manufacturing index, and the manufacturing industry also expanded significantly.
As far as the social finance data itself is concerned, the decrease is mainly in the consumer credit of residents, and the loans for enterprise production are not much reduced.
This means that the current economic problems are mainly in consumption and real estate.
Moreover, measuring production with monthly changes in loans is not scientific in itself, and is generally measured by quarterly changes, because corporate loans are rarely for this month or next month, at least in the first quarter or even a few years! Not to mention that there is a Spring Festival in January and February!
Therefore, the merger of January and February can better reflect the problem, and the merger of January and February, whether it is month-on-month or year-on-year, is up, and basically the same as expected!
Therefore, the decline in social financing in February is mainly due to the completion of financing in January, and there is no need for so much in February.
Look at the macro data: as the most important economic engine since the outbreak of the epidemic, exports continued to soar in February, up 16.3% year-on-year, far exceeding 13.6% in January!
In addition, another industry with huge financing needs, infrastructure, is not at all affected by social financing, with the business activity index of the construction industry in February being 57.6%, up 2.2% month-on-month; the new order index of the construction industry was 55.1%, up 1.8, and the level of construction industry prosperity was significantly improved.
Of course, the significant acceleration in the issuance of local special bonds in February, which is most closely related to the construction industry, is a major highlight in the February social financing data.
In addition, the profits of industrial enterprises in January and February also increased sharply (otherwise, why are so many companies in a hurry to announce january and February results?). ）。
And, in addition to January having melted enough, consider the Winter Olympics, which cover almost the entire month of February (which will only end tomorrow)! This will definitely have a significant impact on the polluting manufacturing and infrastructure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei!
Coupled with the outbreak of the epidemic in February, the manufacturing industry and buildings are running better than the data!
The biggest problem with the economy is consumption, but at least generally the impact of the February outbreak. However, due to the acceleration of manufacturing and infrastructure, I believe that the March social financing and economic operation data will be better!
According to the law, the increase or decrease of a certain month is abnormal, and the next month will generally rebound significantly! The basic judgment is that February should be the "bottom of social integration"!
As far as the stock market is concerned, with both the policy bottom and the market bottom appearing, the only thing that has not yet been completely constructed is the psychological bottom or panic bottom.
Therefore, the sharp decline in social financing in February, although it can not constitute liquidity and fundamental bearishness, but also can add a certain psychological panic. There are no disadvantages to future movements!
Later, another short - Chinese stocks fell sharply!
