In the past two days, a diplomatic war has been waged between Greece and Russia – a Russian foreign ministry spokesman has publicly denounced the Greek government as launching an anti-Russian campaign, and the Greek foreign ministry has hit back that Russia's criticism of Greece is "unacceptable":
As an Orthodox country, Greece and Russia are very closely linked in terms of economy, trade, culture, tourism, and military, and Russia is one of the three major proponents of Greek independence.
After the "Ukraine crisis" broke out, Greece joined the ranks of sanctions against Russia. Relations between Greece and Russia have taken a sharp turn for the worse, with the diplomatic conflict of the first two days being just a small wave; it can be expected that Relations between Greece and Russia will hover at a low ebb for a long time to come.
EU countries, including Greece, rely heavily on Russian gas. With Russia officially recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as "independent states", the EU and the United States will launch a comprehensive sanctions action against Russia, which is likely to lead to a crisis in the supply of natural gas in EU countries in the next few years or even decades, which will further push up the inflation rate of EU countries - in 2020, 40% of the natural gas used by EU countries will come from Russia; even if the United States, Qatar and other countries desperately supply natural gas to the EU. Nor will it be able to fill the gap in Russia's cut-off supply of natural gas.
Ukraine crisis, will Greece suffer?
Greece is a country that produces almost no oil and gas, and almost all of Greece's oil and gas comes from imports, of which natural gas is mainly imported from Russia. Can Greece wean itself off its dependence on Russian gas in the next 10 years?
Russia has long been Greece's leading supplier of natural gas. Before 2020, Russian gas will be transported to Greece through natural gas pipelines in Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, which is more expensive due to the long pipeline. Since 2020, Russian gas can be transported directly from Russia to Bulgaria and then to Greece through the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline, across the Black Sea.
Where does Greece's natural gas come from?
Globally, there are two forms of imported (exported) natural gas, one is to build natural gas pipelines, through which natural gas is transported from the gas field to the user; the other is to first liquefy the natural gas, then transport it to the port through an LNG carrier, and then restore the liquefied natural gas to a gaseous state and deliver it to the user.
In the next 10 years, greece wants to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas, there are 4 alternatives:
1. Increase imports of pipeline natural gas from Azerbaijan;
2. Increase imports of LNG to Qatar;
3. Increase imports of liquefied natural gas to the United States;
4. Wait for the import of natural gas pipelines in Israel.
Starting in 2019, gas from Azerbaijan can enter Greece through Turkey through pipelines. Azerbaijan and Turkey are Turkic brothers, while relations between Greece and Turkey are very tense, and this gas pipeline passes through Turkey. If relations between Greece and Turkey are strained, the greek gas pipeline on land will be stuck in the neck by Turkey. From a security perspective, Greece cannot move from relying on Russia to relying on Azerbaijan.
With the northern Qatar gas field expansion project put into operation, Qatar will surpass Australia around 2026 to become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas again. Qatari Energy Minister Kabi said in an interview with Reuters on Feb. 22 that neither Qatar nor any other country has the capacity to replace Russia's supply to Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has disrupted gas supplies; Kabi added that most of Qatar's gas supply is locked into long-term contracts that mainly target Asian buyers, and that the supply of LNG to European countries is very limited.
Whether it is importing LNG from Karta or from the United States, Greece will need to establish a system for receiving, storing and delivering LNG. For Greece, this means a lot of money and constant market investment, which is a huge challenge.
In June 2021, the European Commission approved Greece to build a new LNG terminal in its northeastern port of Alexandroupolis, helping EU countries such as Greece, Bulgaria and Romania ensure the security and diversification of energy supplies. Over the past few years, the United States has been expanding its supply of LNG to European countries. LNG vessels carrying U.S. LNG cross the Atlantic Ocean into the Mediterranean Sea and sail to the Greek port of Alexandroupolis, near Istanbul, Turkey, where they are stored in a floating storage regasification unit and delivered to Greek gas users via a Greek gas pipeline.
As for the plan to transport Israeli natural gas to Greece through the submarine gas pipeline, it is still in the preliminary demonstration stage, has not yet been approved, and it will take at least 5-7 years to start production.
In this way, it seems that Greece wants to get rid of its dependence on Russian gas in the next 10 years, which is a very difficult thing, and it can even be said to be almost impossible to achieve. Even if Greece wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas to less than 20%, it will have to pay a high price and a short time - if there are Greek politicians (political parties) who claim to find an alternative to Russian gas in the short term, it can basically be judged as "deceptive political propaganda", and even the rich Germans understand the significance of Russian pipeline gas.
Let's hope that Russia and Ukraine will reach a "peace agreement" as soon as possible through negotiations. In this way, the EU can lift various sanctions against Russia, and the EU people, including Greece, may use Russian gas again.
Huo Qingchuan
March 9, 2022 in Songtao Bay, Athens, Greece