I don't dare, I want others to rush ahead
According to the latest news on March 9, Poland is ready to give Ukraine more than 20 MiG-29 fighters free of charge, but the method is very interesting: Poland is afraid of being hit by Russia, and wants to give the fighters to the United States first, so that the United States can provide them to Ukraine.
Interestingly, Poland did not forget to harm Germany, and Poland wanted to fly MiG fighters to Ramstein Air Base in Germany first and hand them over to the United States. When the United States learned of this solution, it categorically rejected Poland's proposal, and John Kirby, the press secretary of the Pentagon, said: We do not think that Poland's proposal is justified.
The United States refused Poland's request for the simple reason that if NATO provided Ukrainian fighter jets, and if these fighter jets flew into the disputed airspace and bombed the Russian army, how would Russia retaliate? Will the provision of fighter jets to a country be considered a battle? A wave of cruise missiles of Russian strategic bombers has passed, can Ramstein Air Base still work? Does NATO dare to fight a nuclear war with Russia?
It can be seen from this that the dream of a small country exists, but it cannot be realized by itself. Polish Foreign Minister Zbignev Law although he wants to help Ukraine, but he is very aware of his own strength, and the United States is a realist country, now sanctions are enough for Russia to drink a pot, participating in the war is superfluous, but also set himself on fire, Poland This is when the Americans are stupid, how can the United States go to Russia for a Ukraine?
In 1988, East Germany bought 24 MiG-29 fighters from the Soviet Union, transferred 22 to Poland in 1996, and Poland now has 23 in service, but Poland does not plan to exchange MiG-29 fighters for American F-16 fighters.
Historically, Poland was invaded by Germany and Russia almost at the same time, and Poland not only did not have a cold interest in Russia, but actually hated Germany to the bone. Of course, Germany and Russia have the same dislike for Poland. Poland has repeatedly pointed fingers at energy cooperation between Russia and Germany, which has made Germany very dissatisfied. And Poland has also spoiled the 2021 summit between the European Union and Russia, and even France has no good feelings for Poland.
Therefore, within the European Union, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and these countries are actually the iron-blooded small followers of the United States, and it is estimated that the European Union is eager to remove these countries.
What is the current situation in Russia and Ukraine?
Following the Entry of the Russian Military into "Silent Mode" on March 8, on March 9 the Russian Military continued to open up corridors for Ukrainian humanitarianism and support the withdrawal of Ukrainian civilians from the war zone. This means that the Russian army has not carried out much military action in the past two days. In the past three rounds of negotiations, the representatives of Russia and Ukraine have made some breakthroughs, but they have not reached the final substantive results.
For example, the Ukrainian side has begun to make concessions in terms of commitment to neutrality and de-Nazismization, but Russia has more demands, which is difficult to reach in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Russia's daring to demand demands from Ukraine for Crimea and Donbass is clearly overwhelmingly superior on the battlefield, which is completely confirmable. If Ukraine is really very resistant, or even turns defensive to offensive, Russia cannot make such a strong demand.
From the map of the Situation in Russia and Ukraine on March 9, it can be seen that the offensive posture of the Russian army has not changed much from March 7, which means that the Russian army has not taken much action in these two days. At present, the main combat area of the Russian army is still in Mariupol, Kharkov, Kiev, Samui and other places, and after the withdrawal of civilians, the Russian army may have major operations.
According to some news on March 8, Russian strategic bombers are suspected of firing eight Kh-101 cruise missiles at the Ukrainian airport of Vinnytsia in the direction of the Black Sea, and both Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers can launch this missile outside the defensive zone. If the news is true, Russian strategic bombers may be ready to start getting involved in the war. Once the strategic bomber intervenes, it means that the attack intensity will increase significantly, after all, the strategic bomber has a much larger bomb load than the fighter, especially in the area where the prevention and control system is determined to collapse, and the damage caused by carpet bombing will be greater.
For the Ukrainian army, what is missing now is anti-aircraft weapons, which of course includes fighters, and if Ukraine can obtain dozens of fighters in the short term, it will inevitably bring substantial improvement to Ukraine's combat effectiveness. But NATO does not want to muddy the waters, which will have a great impact on NATO's collective security interests, and the United States will certainly not choose to provide heavy weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
Although the United States is in the Americas, but in Germany there are US air bases, there are also a large number of troops, these military assets are within the range of Russian missiles, once the United States enters the war, the US military base in Germany may be difficult to retreat.
What is the number of times that Russia has activated the "silent state" in a row?
Russia should have activated three states of silence, mainly for peace talks or the opening of humanitarian corridors, and the state of silence is basically a ceasefire.
First, the faster the Russian military advances in combat in Ukraine, the higher the logistical support requirements. The ceasefire period allows the Russian military to receive adequate logistical support, whether it is for food, ammunition or the improvement of the battle plan. Moreover, Russia hastily launched a military strike against Ukraine, and the Russian military is certainly uncomfortable in many aspects. This may also be a reason for the relatively large losses of the Russian army, and then when the Russian army adapts to the battlefield state, then the speed of advance may be accelerated, of course, this still depends on the outcome of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, if the Zelensky government does not want to talk, then the Russian army can only continue to attack.
Second, the initiation of a state of silence shows that the Russian military has indeed pledged not to strike civilians, both for Ukrainians and Westerners, and that russia's special military operation is aimed at only Ukrainian military targets.
Third, Russia's move also leaves more time for the Kiev authorities to think about how to negotiate, for which Ukraine is not fully prepared, and behind the Ukrainian peace talks is the intervention of the European Union and the United States. In addition to the game between Russia and Ukraine, there is actually a game between the European Union and the United States. After all, the war has been going on for more than ten days, and now the European Union finds itself in the pit, the price of natural gas and oil has soared, and it is still not allowed to pay for itself?
What will be the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
The outcome of the situation between Russia and Ukraine may not be as ideal as we think, and eventually the Russian army may enter Kiev, the negotiations between Russia and Zelenskiy will be completely broken, and then russia and the European Union will coordinate the formation of a new Ukrainian government to maximize the exclusion of the United States.
Of course, it would be a good thing if Russia chose to withdraw its troops in the context of Ukraine agreeing to commit to neutralization and not joining NATO, and the war would end, but at present, this possibility is gradually drifting away.