A few days ago, I read a very hot post, a well-known professor predicted that house prices will continue to skyrocket for a long time.
His point of view is: the house is consumed every day, and a large amount of invisible demand is ignored, the price of the house rises, the price reduction, and the population factor is not the determining factor, he predicts that the house price will start to rise next year. Specifically, let's take a look at the logic of his prediction of the rise.
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Review the last round of market surge
First of all, he reviewed for us the last round of skyrocketing property market in the mainland.
He said that the last time housing prices skyrocketed was in 2015, when the mainland was also facing the same situation as the current one, with high inventory pressure, long de-escalation cycle, huge debt pressure on real estate companies, and a strong wait-and-see mood in the market due to lack of confidence...
Soon, however, the problems faced by the domestic real estate market were quickly solved, and housing prices in many cities began to soar, and in some cities they even doubled at that stage.
For example, in the past, 8,000 yuan/square meter, under that round of stimulation, it rose to 15,000 yuan/square meter; Previously, 20,000 yuan/square meter rose to 40,000 yuan/square meter; 50,000 yuan/square meter has even risen to more than 100,000 yuan/square meter, and the real estate market has opened an unprecedented fire boom.
Then he went on to say that after entering 2024, the state will once again vigorously stimulate real estate. In the last week alone, Hangzhou and Xi'an have fully lifted restrictions on real estate purchases, and not only that, but the current domestic M2 has also reached 300 trillion yuan, flood irrigation, inflation and currency depreciation.
According to his analysis, this series of operations is the prelude to another surge in real estate prices.
.02
Will house prices really skyrocket again this time like they did in 2015?
In this regard, a netizen on the Internet who claimed to be a professor said that he was 100% sure that the house price would rise. As for the logic of the rise, he said that the reason why he is sure that house prices will rise is not because he is blindly optimistic, nor because of how many houses he has, but because he finds that after house prices rise, the market will be bigger.
He explained it this way from his own personal experience, when he first started a project, the cost of a project was only 30 yuan, and everyone was reluctant to invest in advertising, saying that if advertising could be cheaper, we would do it; Later, the cost of a project increased to 300 yuan, and everyone was willing to invest in advertising and increased their investment.
He came to the conclusion from this experience that the market is not determined by supply and demand, but by human shortcomings, and that the lower the price, the less the market.
To put it simply, everyone likes things with relatively high prices, and now the things on a certain Duoduo and Xianyu are very cheap, but everyone is really rich, and they will still choose to spend on a certain east or a certain cat.
Moreover, things will only get more expensive in the future, and money will prove itself cheaper and cheaper with practical actions. For example, water, gasoline, natural gas, and electricity have all risen in price in recent years.
Of course, in addition to this, medical education and social security have also maintained an upward trend over the years, and it is likely that it will continue to rise in the future.
That is to say, the prices of the things you have to consume in your life, the monopoly things, basically maintain an upward trend, and this increase will continue. Of course, except for grain, because grain is grown by farmers, only what is monopolized will rise 100%, and what you control cannot rise.
As for the house, he said that if the price is getting lower and lower, everyone will not buy it if it goes up or down, and they will not buy it. But from the policy point of view, it can already be seen that since the price is low, you will stop the supply of land.
In this way, there are fewer houses on the market and those old ones will never be demolished. If you have money, you can't live in an old house forever, because in the future all resources will be inclined to high-quality communities, where the elderly live in old houses, and the whole community smells of death. Many young people will quietly move away.
This can be seen from the current countryside, how many people are still in the current countryside? How many young people are there? No matter how much you beautify the countryside, in the end everyone goes to the city.
If everyone goes to the city, then they will inevitably yearn for a bigger city, because good education and medical care, including employment, are not in the countryside, but in the city.
Therefore, he believes that the future of urban housing is also the same logic, the old house does not have high-quality community facilities, everyone's income continues to rise, there is money in the pocket, there will be a desire to improve the housing, at that time, will flee the old community, choose a higher quality supporting community life.
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Advice for buyers
The professor said that at any time, the purchase of a house must be paid in full. If you don't buy the house in full, your income will be unstable and the mortgage will make you super depressed.
As for where to buy, his advice is that it must be the center of the center. He said that buying a house, as long as it is not the center of the center, is wrong! Because rents in the central area will still get more and more expensive as time goes on. Now you see that rents are cheap in a lot of places, and this is the scene where people change their consumption. The real consumption scene is still in the heart of the city center.
So he thinks: you can buy a house in full and you can only buy it in the central area of the city, and everything else is wrong!
Finally, he summed up his set of logic and admitted that 100% of house prices will rise. Because it is determined by human nature. Because human nature is to buy up, not down!
So, for this netizen's opinion, friends, do you think house prices will really soar in 2024?
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.
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