#精品长文创作季#
Less than 10 days after he was sworn in, at a sensitive moment when the Russian-Ukrainian war and the situation in the Middle East are treacherous and volatile, and the Sino-US showdown in the Western Pacific has entered the deep water zone, almost half of the government officials in the super-standard delegation led by Putin to visit China participated. Five vice presidents, three ministers, two defense ministers, and the head of the financial, energy, aerospace and railway system almost moved their home! What does this mean exactly? Some netizens said that what the United States feared most has happened, and an alliance to dismantle US hegemony is being born!
Putin's 22nd visit to China! Cai Zhengyuan: China's national fortunes are at their best
It is hard to believe that this is Putin's 22 second visit to China or his visit to China to participate in international activities, and he has visited China more than a dozen times in the name of the president and prime minister.
- On 18 July 2000, the Beijing Declaration of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation was issued, which stated that the foreign affairs, national defense, law enforcement, economy, science and technology departments of the two countries would maintain regular and close exchanges and strengthen coordination and cooperation.
- On July 16, 2001, the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation was signed. The signing of this treaty has made it possible for China and Russia to cooperate in all directions.
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- On June 8, 2018, the two sides issued the Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation, which expounded on political, economic and regional relations.
- On June 5, 2019, the heads of state of China and Russia decided to upgrade their relations to the "China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era". This is the first time that a new expression and new positioning of the "comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for the new era" has appeared in China's bilateral relations with foreign countries, which is of great significance and far-reaching significance.
What are Putin's tasks during this visit to China? On May 16, the heads of state of China and Russia jointly signed and issued the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era on the Occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Two Countries", which determines the main development direction of China-Russia pragmatic cooperation at the strategic level, which is the most important business of Putin's visit to China. It's almost back-to-back!
Putin has visited China too many times, many netizens are a little aesthetically fatigued, do not care much about Putin's visit to China, and do not know the significance of China and Russia getting closer and closer.
Cai Zhengyuan believes that during the Trump administration, the United States was already ready to draw Russia against China, and given the special relationship between Trump and Putin, even if it failed to confront China, it would not be as close to back-to-back mutual trust as it is now. Previously, China was trying to break through the integration process of China, Japan and South Korea, but the United States instructed Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara to put forward a trick of "Japan's nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands" to crack it, and China was at a disadvantage in Northeast Asia.
If Trump succeeds in wooing Russia again at this time, China's geopolitical disadvantages will be fully revealed, but the Democratic Party in the United States does not know what it is thinking, and actually made a Trump Russiagate incident, which has been investigated for several years, and even almost sent Trump to prison
Biden instead abandoned Trump's idea of pulling Russia against China, and decided to exhaust Russia through Ukraine first, and then solve the Russian threat once and for all. However, the United States, which is bent on provoking the Russian-Ukrainian war, still underestimates Russia's war capabilities, Russia not only becomes more and more courageous the more it fights, but the Russian army has also been tempered in the war, and even revitalized the display economy in a prosperous manner.
Of course, what makes the United States a little obstructed is that Russia also has the world's largest industrial manufacturing capacity China as a backing, although China does not provide military aid to Russia, but to provide Russia with light industry and heavy industry civilian products, fully support the construction of Russia's rear, this is also another kind of support!
The Russian-Ukrainian war has made Russia completely understand that the West is unreliable, although the initial period of time after the collapse of the Soviet Union has made Russia see how shameless the West is, but in the years that Putin has been the president and prime minister of Russia, Russia has always had a Western dream, and even wanted to join the European Union for a time, but the Russian-Ukrainian war shattered this dream, as long as Russia still exists, the United States will do everything to contain and even fight with Europe to the death of Russia, and Russia has found its own position. Only by coming together with China is the right way to go. This is evident in the luxurious lineup of Putin's visit to China:
China and Russia also have reasons to come together, for example, taking energy as an example, Russia's crude oil production in 2023 is expected to be 523 million tons, and exports are expected to exceed 200 million tons, and China's own oil production in 2023 will be about 210 million tons, and imports will be about 500 million tons, that is, China's annual import volume is Russia's annual production volume, and this "internal" digestion is enough!
The other is that Russia needs to industrialize products, whether it is light industry or heavy industry, Russia's industrial scale does not cover the entire industrial category, and the missing ones are filled by China, which is much more reliable than the "shoulder to shoulder" exercises between the United States and the Philippines, and is a friend who is truly worthy of mutual trust.
A series of strategic blunders: the United States itself buried the future
The United States has the best high-tech, manufacturing, military and financial resources, as well as the best strategic masters Kissinger and Brzezinski, and the proximity of China and Russia is one of the possibilities that Brzezinski has warned about the possibility of subverting US hegemony, but in the past ten years, the United States has made a series of mistakes, which eventually led to the United States having to face the current situation of responding to all calls, but the United States may not necessarily work with a gun pointed at its head! The reason is simple, in the last dozen years, the United States has made two mistakes:
- 1. The frenzied development of shale oil in the United States since 2000 has hollowed out the petrodollar base of the United States.
- 2. Biden ignored the China-US-Russia triangle argument and insisted on pursuing the Russia-Ukraine war, resulting in the initial formation of the China-Russia-Iran strategic triangle;
What is the foundation of the US dollar? Of course, it is the petrodollar, which is the first anchor found by the dollar after the collapse of the Brayden Woods system, and the Saudi-led OPEC organization enabled the dollar transaction is the greatest blessing for the United States, that is, the petrodollar has created today's dollar financial empire, but the United States has done something to cross the river and tear down the bridge!
Shale oil makes the United States an oil exporter: robbing the job of the Middle East oil tyrant, a big taboo!
Since the early 2000s, the U.S. government began to support shale oil exploration and production in a planned way! Shale oil is a kind of shale-based shale layer contained in the oil resources, the difficulty of exploitation is relatively high, the need for strong hydraulic fracturing equipment, the production cycle after the well is relatively short, the cost is relatively large, in the era of low oil prices are not competitive at all, but in the perspective of strategic oil and gas reserves, the United States shale oil resources are quite rich, can get rid of the United States dependence on the Middle East oil tyrant, the future in the face of the Middle East oil hegemony pressure and the Persian Gulf crisis will have more right to speak, this idea is very beautiful, But under the operation of Wall Street capital, this industry, which originally provided strategic reserves for the United States, has gone astray!
In 2008, the U.S. shale oil extraction technology matured, and U.S. oil and gas production more than tripled in 10 years. As a result, the United States is not only self-sufficient in oil demand, but also capable of exporting. And with the advent of the era of high oil prices, shale oil exploitation in the United States is developing very rapidly, the United States once became the world's largest oil and gas exporter, Wall Street invested in shale oil capital to make a lot of money, which is a good thing for the United States, but the Middle East does not think much, originally the United States also wanted to buy crude oil in the Middle East, now not only self-sufficient, but also with the Middle East oil tyrant to grab business, which directly led to the Middle East and Russia "alliance" against the United States.
In 2018, Saudi Arabia and Russia joined forces to pull up oil prices, global oil prices plummeted, Saudi Arabia's oil exploitation cost is very low, no matter how low the oil price is, it will not lose money, but Russia even lowers oil prices at a loss, which makes everyone very curious, why is this? The reason is very simple, oil prices have skyrocketed, shale oil has been exploited in large quantities, the United States has become the world's largest oil exporter, and the United States has not joined OPEC and is completely under the leadership of Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia and Russia have exploded oil prices, and American shale oil manufacturers have collapsed first, because the oil production of Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia is the lowest cost in Saudi Arabia, the oil in the Russian tundra is relatively high, and the United States shale oil is the highest, so as long as the global oil price remains low for 1~2 years, the American shale oil developers will fully collapse! Russia's goal has been achieved, and by 2020 most of the US shale oil producers have collapsed.
But oil prices will not remain depressed, after all, it will harm the interests of Tsarist Russia, so a large part of shale oil developers in the United States have survived, and the United States is by far one of the top three oil exporters! The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East has become very delicate from a hardcore ally in the past, and Saudi Arabia no longer cooperates with the United States, especially after the outbreak of inflation in the United States in 2021 and the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.
The United States and the Middle East have separated from Germany, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are "conspiring" with China petroyuan, on November 23, 2022, Saudi Arabia will settle oil transactions with China in yuan, the second news, China and Qatar, signed a 27-year natural gas cooperation agreement, the use of RMB transactions, which has made the tentacles of the internationalization of the Chinese currency deep into the Middle East, and has torn a hole in the core area of dollar hegemony.
What's more interesting is that in March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran also reconciled under the mediation of China, triggering a wave of reconciliation in the Middle East, which paved the way for Israel to become a public enemy in the Middle East in the later Palestinian-Israeli war.
It is obviously a good thing that the United States can be self-sufficient in oil, but Wall Street has operated to compete with the Middle East, and this operation has finally loosened the foundation of the petrodollar, which has established the financial hegemony of the United States.
insisted on pursuing the Russia-Ukraine war, and as a result, the strategic triangle between China, Russia and Iran took shape;
The purpose of the Russian-Ukrainian war is to break the possibility of the establishment of a pan-European Union, that is, Russia is aligned with Europe, Russia has oil and gas and mineral resources, Europe has high-tech and manufacturing capacity, and Europe also has a unified currency, the euro, which is a henchman of the United States, so the United States has been promoting NATO's eastward expansion, with the aim of creating tensions between Russia and Europe.
But since Merkel was elected German chancellor in 2005, Europe and Russia have become closer, and the relationship between Europe and Russia has become closer after the completion of Nord Stream 1, but after the Crimea incident in 2014, Europe and Russia can no longer reach the level of allies, and NATO is in Europe, so it is impossible for Europe to form an alliance with Russia.
So the question is, why did the United States detonate the Russian-Ukrainian war? The answer is the selfishness of the United States, the 20-year war on terror, the empty US treasury, inflated assets, high CPI index (severe inflation), the income of the American people has risen but the standard of living has been declining, and it is extremely necessary to harvest a wave of blood, and the Russian-Ukrainian war was detonated by the United States in this context.
As a result, a large amount of capital fled from Europe, most of them went to the United States, and a small part came to China, which was a surprise for China, and it is worth mentioning that the German automobile industry went to China! None of this was expected by the United States, but the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war was very wrong, more than 40 Western countries led by the United States assisted Ukraine, but they have been defeated and defeated repeatedly, while Russia has become more and more courageous, and even played a stable wartime economy.
The Russian-Ukrainian war also made Russia completely understand that the West could not tolerate Russia, so that Russia's pro-Western faction lost the market, and Russia began to turn to the East wholeheartedly, and formed a China-Russia-Iran "alliance" with China and Iran, which were previously "quasi-allied" in the interests of the Middle East.
This is one of the most taboo forms of alliance in Brzezinski's "The Great Chess Game", and it may shake the foundation of US hegemony in the future! The key to this is China's attitude, in the "Great Chess Game" envisaged three alliances that can overthrow American hegemony, two of which are allied with China, and in several wars since World War II, the side that has allied with China has never lost:
- Korean War: China and the Soviet Union form an alliance against the United Nations forces led by the United States, and the United States loses;
- Vietnam War: Sino-Soviet alliance with Vietnam against the United States, the United States lost;
- Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: China and the United States form an alliance with Afghanistan against the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union loses
- War in Afghanistan: China-Russia alliance with Afghanistan against the United States: The United States loses
So from this point of view, China's attitude is the decisive force that determines the victory or defeat of the other two sides in the Sino-US-Russia triangle, and this time the United States unexpectedly pushed Russia to China, which is a black swan event that determines the future global pattern, and the US hegemony is destined to start the countdown at this moment.