The U.S. attempt to build a new type of "China containment grid" in the Asia-Pacific region will not bring peace and stability to the region, but will tear it apart
Since the Biden administration took office, it has obviously attached more importance to winning over allies in the Asia-Pacific region than previous administrations, and has tried its best to create or provoke regional contradictions in an attempt to win over regional allies in a "small multilateral" way, weave a new hegemonic alliance system, and create an encirclement to contain China, which has posed a severe challenge to regional security and stability.
Attempting to weave a new "China containment system"
After the end of World War II, the United States established a series of bilateral alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, including the United States and Japan, the United States and Australia, the United States and South Korea, the United States and the Philippines, and the United States and Thailand.
With the end of the Cold War and the in-depth development of globalization, most countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Southeast Asia, have devoted themselves to economic development, and have embarked on the road of open regionalism and cooperation under the impetus of Japan's "wild goose array" and "ASEAN+" models. At the same time, this has also impacted the "spoke-and-spoke alliance system" of the United States, causing the United States to be highly vigilant and sabotage. Among them, China has risen and become a potential regional center, becoming a "thorn in the side" of US hegemony. In 2009, the United States chanted the slogan of "pivoting to Asia", started a new economic project with the "Trans-Pacific Partnership", militarily increased the scale and frequency of exercises and the deployment of warships and aircraft, and changed its stance on the South China Sea issue to sow discord in an attempt to disrupt the process of Asia-Pacific integration and build a camp system to contain China. After the Trump administration took office, its "America First" policy, coupled with the president's radical rhetoric and perverse behavior, once overwhelmed regional countries. During this period, there were very few people who formed an alliance with the United States to contain China.
Since taking office, the Biden administration has trumpeted that allies are "important strategic assets" and "multipliers" of U.S. hegemony, and has stepped up efforts to win over regional allies. In view of the fact that the United States was unable to form such a collective security mechanism as the "Southeast Asian Treaty Organization" against the background of the advantages enjoyed in all aspects during the Cold War, and that the countries of Southeast Asia currently have extensive political, economic, and social ties with China, it is even more impossible for the United States to follow the old method of rebuilding a collective security mechanism to contain China.
Therefore, the Biden administration has turned to "small multilateral" to gather "small groups" to contain China, including upgrading the "Quadrilateral Mechanism" (Quad) between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, forming the US-UK-Australia Alliance (AUKUS), and tightening security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea. On April 11, 2024, the United States, Japan and the Philippines held their first leaders' summit, emphasizing strengthening security cooperation on China-related issues such as the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait. On May 3, the defense ministers of the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines held a meeting at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to discuss how to "maintain regional stability and security." At this point, the post-World War II spoke-and-spoke alliance system centered on the United States began to transform into a small multilateral, hierarchical network system with the United States as the spire. This small, U.S.-based multilateral network, which U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan calls a "latticework" structure, is seen as more targeted and flexible, helping to build consensus among allies and demonstrate strategic coherence.
The Philippines seen as a "key link"
The Philippines is a former colony of the United States and a treaty ally of the United States, with which it is inextricably linked. More importantly, the Philippines is located in the "first island chain" in the Asia-Pacific region, which controls the key passage from the South China Sea to the Pacific Ocean, and served as a staging point for the US military to launch the Korean War in the north and bomb the Indochina Peninsula in the west during the Cold War.
Against the backdrop of increasingly tense tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines, which faces Taiwan across the sea from China and is less than 200 kilometers away from Taiwan at its northernmost point, is regarded by the United States as a frontline for interfering in Taiwan Strait affairs. According to reports, in 2023, a group of U.S. think tanks such as the Center for a New American Security will carry out a series of war games for conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, and the results show that "the Philippines has an indispensable position for the United States to assist in the defense of Taiwan."
It is for this reason that the Biden administration has tried its best to woo the Philippines, especially the Marcos administration. According to Reuters, Biden was the first foreign leader to call to congratulate Marcos on his election; Warmly inviting Marcos to visit the White House; setting aside the judgment and enforcement of the U.S. District Court against Marcos and his family; Sending senior cabinet officials such as vice presidents, secretaries of state, and defense ministers to visit the Philippines one after another; the largest batch of new crown vaccines provided to the Philippines; Immediately show solidarity with the Philippines for trespassing on Ren'ai Jiao; donation of weapons and equipment such as patrol boats and reconnaissance aircraft; signed the U.S.-Philippines Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, which allows the export of nuclear materials and technology to the Philippines; pledged to increase investment in the Philippines. According to Reuters, the Americans have changed their arrogant attitude and made the Philippines feel unprecedented respect in their dealings. In addition, as the contradictions between the Marcos family and the Duterte family have expanded and become more and more public, Marcos and his political cousins have deliberately weakened the power of the Du family by the United States in order to consolidate their family power, and then further tilted towards the United States in a series of domestic and foreign policies.
At present, the Marcos administration has tied itself to the US "chariot," including adding four additional military bases to the United States, jointly issuing "bilateral defense guidelines" with the United States, and allowing the United States to deploy the "Typhon" medium-range missile launch system on Luzon Island in the Philippines, thus making US military hegemony even more rampant.
This is not deterrence, but coercion
The United States is rallying allies and flaunting its military strength in the Asia-Pacific region, which is called "integrated deterrence." "Deterrence" is meant to be defensive and defensive, but the premise should be to deter aggression; otherwise, the so-called "deterrence" will become a kind of coercion and coercion, which will not only be detrimental to regional stability, but will provoke stronger resistance and countermeasures.
In fact, it is extremely hegemonic for the United States to gather its allies to build a grid alliance system, threaten to carry out "denial deterrence", "resilience deterrence" or "punitive deterrence" against China, and attempt to prevent China from realizing the reunification of the motherland and defending its maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea.
Even at the technical level, the so-called "deterrence" of China by the United States is fraught with problems. Recently, American scholars such as Hal Brands, who advocate denial of deterrence against China, are also thinking about how to solve the six major dilemmas of deterrence against China, such as "focusing on survivability or attack", "showing strength or hiding strength", "deploying in the front or deploying in the back", "focusing on quick war or protracted war", "respecting sovereignty or focusing on efficiency", and "taking gray zone action or high-intensity war".
The Philippines, instigated by the United States, is clearly emboldened and emboldened in its infringement in the South China Sea, and in order to test the credibility of its commitments, it cannot rule out taking a more aggressive approach. At that time, in the event of a maritime conflict, the United States will have to think carefully in advance about whether the United States will actually invoke the US-Philippine "Mutual Defense Treaty" and shed blood and sacrifice for the islands and reefs that did not exist when the treaty was concluded. Regardless of whether the United States intervenes or not, the situation in the South China Sea has clearly become more volatile. Some Southeast Asian countries are already deeply disturbed and dissatisfied with this, because any conflict in the South China Sea would undermine the stability and improving economic dynamics of the entire region. In November 2023, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reminded the Philippines, "Are you sure you want to make yourself a battlefield?" ”
In short, the United States is trying to build a new type of China containment grid in the Asia-Pacific region, but such a China containment grid will not only not bring peace and stability to the region, but will lead to regional divisions, bloc confrontation, and frequent conflicts, and must arouse a high degree of vigilance among Asia-Pacific countries.
Source: "China Institute of Contemporary International Relations" WeChat public account
Author: Chen Qinghong
Editor: Hu Liang
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