Author: Battle Flash
According to media reports, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on March 5 local time that from 10:00 Moscow time on the same day, the Russian army entered a state of silence in Ukraine, and opened humanitarian passages for civilians to leave Mariupol and Volnovaha, and the humanitarian corridor and evacuation route have been agreed with the Ukrainian side.
Since the large-scale use of troops in Ukraine on February 24, it has been nearly 10 days, and the whole world has reacted strongly, but through the attention to the war itself, it still makes people have a very strange feeling, that is, the use of Russian troops this time feels soft, different from the past, and even some analysts believe that Russia has only used less than 10% of its strength.
First of all, Russia's missiles have not been used on a large scale, but have only targeted some important military facilities, and the Ukrainian army is mainly propaganda and abduction, supplemented by strikes and eliminations; secondly, Russia has not cut off all kinds of communications in Ukraine, especially for Ukrainian civilian facilities, residential areas and cities, and the damage has been basically controlled to a minimum extent; finally, Russia has not beheaded Ukrainian President Zelensky without achieving the goal of "de-militarization" of Ukraine. It has not abandoned peace talks with Ukraine, let alone increased military pressure.
In short, there is a variety of evidence that Russia intends to define this war in the category of "special military operations" and distinguish it from previous large-scale modernization wars in order to show Russia's helplessness and prove that it is not an aggressor.
It has to be said that this is a "good news" for Ukraine and the international community, because it can not only avoid the loss of life and property to the greatest extent, but also leave a retreat for possible peace in the future. At this time, then, we may try to analyze Russia's military operations, which should be typical of three advances and two retreats, and the "one" left behind is the goal of Russia's special military operation. On this issue, Russia is more frank, both to ensure ukraine's neutral and nuclear-weapon-free status, "de-militarization" and "de-Nazismization", to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and the sovereignty and borders of Donetsk and Luhansk.
So, what is the deck in Russia's hand? That is the de facto occupation of Ukraine, which is used to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities. Whether Ukraine accepts this or not, it is not of great significance in itself, because it no longer has the qualifications and conditions for negotiation and can only accept a relatively less bad result. But will the United States and the European Union, which stand behind Ukraine, agree? That's the crux of the matter.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict itself, in terms of scale and nature, can be large or small, can be advanced or retreated, which is controlled by Russia to a large extent, but different results have a far-reaching impact on Europe's own security, because for Russia, a nuclear-armed power, Europe is powerless to fight back, provoking Russia, and doing all kinds of harm to Europe. Therefore, all recent decisions on Ukraine have basically been rejected, including joining the European Union and NATO setting up a no-fly zone in Ukraine. In a word, Europe will not be because Ukraine, and Russia to throw the table, this deal is not cost-effective, then, they will naturally be inclined to accept Russian conditions.
As for the United States, its greatest hope is naturally to drag Russia in Ukraine and give it a long-term "bloodletting", further weaken Russia's economic strength and international influence, and further cut off the interest ties between Russia and Europe. However, the United States also has its own difficulties, one is not to over-offend Europe, if it disregards Europe's security and only pursues its own interests, the United States may lose the trust of Europe; the second is that it is difficult for the United States itself to send troops to meet with Russian soldiers, which will lead to the outbreak of World War III. Therefore, the best option for the United States is to delay the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine under the pretext that it cannot easily compromise with Russia, and to prevent Zelenskiy from surrendering prematurely, so that the United States can control the development to the greatest extent possible and put Russia in an embarrassing situation.
A few days ago, Putin and German Chancellor Scholz had a telephone conversation, and the two sides exchanged views on the development of the situation in Ukraine, while the United States publicly stated that as long as Russia withdraws its troops and recognizes Ukraine's national sovereignty, it will cancel the recent sanctions against Russia. Undoubtedly, these are very positive signals, whether it is Russia, the United States, Europe, have no intention of completely breaking the original rules of the game, and maximizing interests is still the ideal ending pursued by all parties. In this way, optimistically, although Russia has paid some price, the strategic goal of "advancing three and retreating" is expected to be achieved, perhaps, Russia does not have too much ambition, and knows that it is powerless to confront the entire West, but just wants to establish a strategic buffer zone in Ukraine.
Although Ukraine was a complete loser, without any sympathy, and a defeated country, this may be the best outcome, and the weak bear all the costs, all the time, no way.