Welcome to Chengwei International Observation. Ukraine in the past two days of changes, I believe everyone has seen, circle useful, the situation in Ukraine, in the past two months, under the continuous speculation of the US media, the situation in Ukraine is more and more full, and even US President Biden continues to push the waves. However, it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a leader who is very good at manipulating the international situation, and he is now making this move, which is to accurately grasp the bottom line of the United States. You can not only protect yourself from losses, but also gain the greatest benefits.
Let's see what's happened in the last two days? The first is that Russia's parliament passed a resolution by a large number of votes asking Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize two eastern Ukrainian states as independent states. Then President Putin naturally has to conform to the will of the people, and this is a decision made by the parliament. So after Putin gave an impassioned speech for more than an hour, Russia announced that it recognized the two eastern Ukrainian oblasts as independent states, and then Russia and these two nascent countries established diplomatic relations, and you remember that we said earlier that there was an organization called the Collective Security Organization of the Collective Security Organization, which was a military organization jointly established by Russia and several neighboring countries.
In the recent rebellion in Kazakhstan, this organization also played a huge role, and the Russian army surprised Kazakhstan in just one day, so that the situation in Kazakhstan was quickly reversed.
Now that Russia has recognized the two oblasts as independent states and has established diplomatic relations with them, President Putin is at the invitation of these two countries to send Russian troops, that is, to send Cyan peacekeepers, into these two countries to maintain the status quo.
People Russia said very clearly, I did not come to fight, I came not to invade the two countries, people are already "independent countries", we have established diplomatic relations with him is a friendly ally, we let the Russian army go in to ensure the safety of our neighbors, at this time the Western countries led by the United States, you can not presumptuously assert that Russia is invading, Russia is attacking Ukraine, Russia has not invaded Ukraine, the Russian army has entered a country that has established diplomatic relations with Russia. The independence of this country was confirmed by a referendum by the whole people, and it was approved by the Russian parliament through a vote, and then the Russian army came into the country to peacekeepe and help, which was not an act of aggression.
So we have seen that in the past two days, although the situation has undergone earth-shaking changes, the Russian army has entered the original Ukrainian territory, but so far the big battle has not been fought, unlike US President Biden said, Russia is going to level Kiev and flatten Ukraine, this kind of thing has not happened. Moreover, at the same time, in the Western countries led by the United States, apart from engaging in economic sanctions, he has not sent a single soldier or pawn, and the battle has not been fought.
Putin has grasped the bottom line of the United States very accurately this time, what is the bottom line of the United States? When many people ask Biden why the Russian army has entered Ukraine, and you have not yet done it, Putin has long understood the bottom line of the United States, and the United States will not go to war for Ukraine and Russia.
In fact, do you know? The two oblasts in eastern Ukraine have been out of the control of the central government of Ukraine for seven or eight years. Almost at the same time as the Crimean crisis of 2014, not only did Crimea hold a referendum, but also a referendum in those states. Since then, the civil war in eastern Ukraine has been continuous, and since that time, those places have actually disobeyed the central government of Ukraine for a long time. And those states have always wanted to emulate Crimea and join Russia. However, after assessing the situation that year, Putin not only did not agree to their accession to the Russian Federation, but also did not even recognize the independence of the two oblasts. Why? Putin was thinking that I still had to have a good relationship with this Ukraine, and I didn't want to tear my face, but it is clear that for some time now, the United States and NATO have used Ukraine to put shackles on Russia's neck and then tighten it more and more tightly, which makes Russia have to fight for the last time.
What is the wishful thinking of the United States? For today's President Biden, he is indeed in the midst of internal and external difficulties, 70 or 80 million people diagnosed with the new crown epidemic in China immediately rushed to 100 million people, and the death eye is about to break a million, well, even if the epidemic is a natural disaster, but you deal with the collapse of the economy, causing inflation in the United States today, prices soaring, this is absolutely a man-made disaster.
In the past, we often said that the Democratic presidents of the United States are all highly educated and highly intelligent, and the Democratic government can save a lot of wealth for the United States, but Biden is also a Democrat than this Obama Clinton, which is really far worse, so many Americans actually have no hope for Biden, and this year's midterm elections are coming soon, the midterm elections, once the Democratic Party loses power in the Senate House of Representatives at the same time, Biden will immediately become a broken president, and now many of your plans can not be pushed, Moreover, at that time it became a minority in Parliament.
So for the Democrats, he really needs to fight a battle, how to make a president his prestige increase rapidly in the short term, there is nothing more convenient than fighting a foreign war.
Especially as we all know, Biden and Ukraine this place is really very interactive, Biden was Obama's deputy for 8 years, in these 8 years Biden visited Ukraine 6 times, and Biden's son Hunter Biden has an inextricable relationship with Ukraine, and even we can say that when the 2020 election, the Biden camp made good use of the Ukrainian card, making Trump impeachment, so this place in Ukraine is not ordinary for Biden, and now since the country has encountered a lot of difficulties, The midterm elections may not be elected, so simply hype up the Ukrainian form, how to hype?
8 years ago those places have demanded independence, 8 years have been fighting a civil war, Russia has not been overheated in recent times, the Us media has hyped Russian exercises, Russia wants to annex Ukraine, Russia wants to rebuild a large Soviet Union.
In a state of being, with a global intelligence network, the United States, and then his president came forward and said, you know? On February 16th Russia will definitely fight. When there was no fight on February 16th, he said you know what? Russia will definitely fight in the next few weeks.
Biden's little calculation is that if, under my constant rendering, Russia really moves, then good, you see what I said is true, you see I have long made a prediction, once there is a military conflict, everyone's eyes will be drawn to Ukraine, especially European countries will feel cold, they can only be forced to tie to the US chariot, then at that time, no matter what kind of move Biden makes, it is a plus.
On the other hand, if Putin blindly tolerates it, if Putin allows the US media to spread rumors and does not make any moves, then Biden can also stand up and say, you see I am now a soldier who is a soldier who is a soldier who is a good fighter. I have predicted that Putin is going to do it, so I deliberately said in front of the world that Putin is going to do it, and if Russia dares to do it, I will definitely increase economic sanctions. Under my strong pressure, Putin instigated, a generation of strongmen dare not move, a catastrophe disappeared into invisibility, whose credit? Biden's credit.
However, it is clear that under the pressure of the United States, Putin has chosen this set of plays: Don't you expect me to start to mess up the situation? I don't do it, I hit you America the way you do.
As we all know, since World War II, the United States has carried out various color revolutions in many countries, that is, to encourage people in that place to engage in independence referendums, to become independent, and then the United States will influence it to tear apart the original big country, and how similar Kosovo was to today's eastern Ukraine more than 20 years ago, and how did the United States deal with Yugoslavia? Russia is much softer to Ukraine today, so Putin is "treating people in the same way", learning from the United States, I admit that these two states are independent, and people have gone through an independence referendum. Isn't that in line with your consistent U.S. formalities requirements? Then I establish diplomatic relations with independent countries, I help my neighbors to quell the chaos, is there anything wrong with that?
More crucially, these two states are actually within Russia's sphere of influence, and Russia has not actually taken another step forward, and it is not as some people hope that the Russian army will surprise Kiev and bring the whole of Ukraine under control, which is not the case, so the ball is kicked to biden's feet.
From the perspective of the American story, Russia is simply lawless, you see the dismemberment of Ukraine again, 8 years ago took Crimea, and now take the two states in eastern Ukraine, but in fact the Russian army is not beyond its control, the two states have declared independence for 8 years. In such a state, Putin is well aware of the bottom line of the United States, not to mention that Biden has long said that if the Russian army only invades Ukraine on a small scale, it will not send troops.
Therefore, Russia could have not recognized the independence of the two countries, but now with the help of the United States, Russia has recognized that the two countries are really independent and kicked the ball back. Until now, not only has the United States not sent a single soldier, ukraine has not said that I will take those two places back by force.
The United States and its partners can only propose so-called comprehensive economic sanctions now, but didn't you do that 8 years ago? You have been sanctioned for 8 years, Russia has not fallen, but due to the crisis in Ukraine, international oil prices have soared, and now it has broken through $100 a barrel. In this state, do you think Russia, as a major oil exporter, will suffer or benefit its economy? Of course, for Biden, it may also be because the situation in Ukraine will deteriorate further, then he can maintain a tough image in the United States, perhaps this will be a little good for his midterm elections.