In the village of Medica in March, there is no spring at all.
The weather at near-zero froze the ground hard, and not a trace of sunlight leaked out of the thick clouds. The bushes on the ground were withered and yellow, and no new shoots had yet been extracted, and the low wooden houses of the local residents were becoming more and more dull.
The village is as silent as ever, with occasional figures passing through it.
The village of Medica / network on the Polish-Ukrainian border
But at the Medica border crossing, just minutes from the village, heavy iron fences cut off another world — crowds of people, long queues and mountains of luggage crowding the crossings. Most of the people waiting to enter the country are women, children or the elderly, looking or anxious, or relieved.
This is the Polish-Ukrainian border crossing at the end of February. While Governor Lukaz Kmit said that there was "no limit" for Ukrainian refugees in the Lesser Polish Province, which borders Ukraine, Warsaw was ready. "If necessary, we will receive 1 million Ukrainian refugees." In early February, when the world was still speculating about Putin's true intentions, the Polish government made such a promise.
On the more than 500-kilometre-long border between Poland and Ukraine, nine refugee reception centres have been busy for more than a week, providing food, medicine and shelter to more than 100,000 hungry Ukrainians. The Polish medical train used to transport the Wounded in Ukraine is on standby, Ukrainian citizens with valid passports are eligible for free tickets on the Tömbo train, and polish labor offices are speeding up the processing of work permits for Ukrainians.
Medical trains / networks in Poland
Border villages and towns, large and small, have vacated open public spaces, serving as shelters for refugees, with enthusiastic Poles everywhere at the point of entry, and Poles elsewhere donating large amounts of supplies. "If the situation deteriorates, we are ready to do our best to help the Ukrainians," said Marius Gumienni, chairman of the Medica town council.
Over the past dozen days, Polish President Duda has maintained almost a daily telephone communication frequency with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, and as one of Ukraine's most important supporters in Europe, he has actively enlisted the support of other countries. After Ukrainian airspace was controlled by Russian fighter jets and Hungary refused weapons transit, missiles, tanks and fuel from Europe and the United States were being imported into Ukraine through Poland. At the earlier Munich Security Conference, the Polish government became the first country to commit to arms shipments to Ukraine, and later derided German aid to Ukraine's 5,000 helmets as "an inexplicable act and ironic move."
Although until now, Poland has not made a secret of its own leeway, especially the fact that it is still careful to avoid accusations of "direct participation in the war", Poland's position is clear. "We will do our best to support Ukraine." In all recent diplomatic occasions, Polish Prime Minister Mateus Molawitzki has gone out of his way to convey his position to the world.
As early as January 21, Morawiecki began to call on Europe to unite and treat Russia hard; kicked Russia out of SWIFT, Poland was one of the first NATO countries to express approval; launched the "special procedure" for Ukraine to enter the EU, and Polish President Duda was the initiator; Poland acted as a lubricant between Hungary and the European Union, which had friction with the EU, and repeatedly urged Hungary to take a stand on sanctions against Russia; on the suspension of the Russian gas pipeline "Nord Stream 2". Poland repeatedly pressed Germany until it was relieved.
From the people to the political circles, Poland has shared the same hatred and hatred for Russia, and has become the "second battlefield" of the Russian-Ukrainian dispute. This country, which has been regarded as an "outlier" in the EU for the past few years, has suddenly become the main fulcrum of Europe's efforts against the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
In Warsaw in March, there was no fighting.
"Partition of Poland"
The "partition of Poland" in middle and high school history textbooks has almost become a fixed phrase collocation. The history of the repeated humiliation of sovereignty in this Eastern European country is closely related to the butcher knife raised from Russia.
Hundreds of years ago, Poland and Russia were at war many times, winning and losing each other. By the beginning of the 18th century, with the collapse of the Polish state's internal political system, the Russian Empire began to intervene in Poland's internal affairs at will, both politically and militarily, and by the middle of the 18th century, the status of Russia's ambassador to Poland had become similar to that of a colonial governor.
In 1772, Poland was divided for the first time by three countries, followed by the second and third times, with the participation of the Russian Empire each time. By 1795, Poland had ceased to exist on the map of Europe. A wave of anti-Russian civil uprisings followed, but it was not until after World War I that Poland was freed from Russian control and became independent as the First Polish Republic.
In 1772-1795, Poland was divided three times/ Wikipedia
After the establishment of the Soviet Union and the outbreak of the Polish-Soviet War, Poland tried to regain from the Soviet Union the lands that had been annexed by the Russian Empire, including present-day Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus and other regions, but failed.
In 1939, Poland was partitioned for the fourth time – this time by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. After assisting in the establishment of puppet power, the Soviets once again took full control of Poland's internal and foreign affairs. It was not until the fall of the Soviet-backed Polish government in 1989, when the Soviet Union was weakening, that Poland finally held a democratic election, and the elected democratic government also gained full national sovereignty. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the former Polish territories - White Russia, Lithuania and other countries have also declared independence.
Partitioned four times, with The participation of Russia each time, the Hatred of Russia by poles has reached the point of being on the verge of erupting. A 2019 survey showed that 74% of Poles believe their home country has suffered more than any other country.
After entering the modern society, Polish-Russian relations are also difficult to see signs of freezing. "It is an unavoidable fact that poles will not accept Russia's interpretation of World War II." Maxim Samurukov, a researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said: "The reason why Bosnia-Russian relations have been delayed for so many years is that people underestimate the difficulty of overcoming historical grievances. As long as the attitude of one party is not firm or sincere enough, or there is a small storm, the other party will be directly stimulated, arousing new hatred and old grudges, and the relationship between the two countries will fall back into a stalemate. ”
After Russia invaded the disputed Region of Crimea in 2014, the Polish-Russian confrontation reached its peak when Poland began to clamor for NATO to deploy a long-term military system in Poland. Because of its central role in a series of conflicts, Poland feared becoming the next target.
"In the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Ukraine and Poland were 'cold lips and teeth'." The Economist concludes.
"The Only Defender"
"There can be no free Poland without a free Ukraine, and there can be no free Ukraine without a free Poland." This Polish proverb directly reveals the place of Ukraine in the hearts of Poles.
But the two countries are not without old grudges – the massacres of Poles by Ukrainian rebels in Volchinia and Eastern Galicia in 1943-1944 are the crux of the contradictions between the two countries. After the Polish Law and Justice party came to power in 2015, it took a tougher stance on historical issues and voted in 2016 to pass a resolution defining the Volhinia massacre as "genocide."
The vote quickly stirred up negative sentiment in Kiev – the National Institute of Memorials of Ukraine refuted that the Volšinya incident was only part of the Polish-Ukrainian war, and that similar crimes had been committed by both sides.
But in the view of Vojcech Konnonchuk, a senior researcher at the Polish think tank Center for Oriental Studies, the clouds hanging over Polish-Ukrainian relations have not affected the continuity of Polish policy toward Ukraine: "The goal of Polish foreign policy remains unchanged, that is, to support Ukraine on the international stage, to encourage its democratization and reform process, and to support European integration. ”
This view can be corroborated by data: the report of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense shows that from 2014 to 2017, Poland ranked fourth among the countries that provided military aid to Ukraine, behind the United States, Canada and NATO, but ahead of the United Kingdom. The two militaries regularly hold joint exercises, and dozens of Polish military instructors are stationed in Ukraine to help train ukrainian troops.
On January 9 this year, The Polish and Ukrainian countries celebrated the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations / Twitter@AndrzejDuda
Economically, as early as December 2015, the National Bank of Poland agreed to establish a 1 billion euro currency swap agreement between the two countries aimed at stabilizing Ukraine's financial system. Currently, Poland is Ukraine's second-largest trading partner, after China. In recent years, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have poured into Poland, filling Poland's scarce labor market.
The closeness of Ukrainians and Poles can be seen in the data: in 2017, a poll by Kantar, a British consultancy, showed that 87% of Poles consider Ukraine to be a European country – the highest level among EU countries. Only 54 percent of Germans, 48 percent of French and 43 percent of Dutch respondents agreed; last month's poll by the Council on Foreign Relations for Europe showed that 65 percent of Poles believed that Poland should stand up for Ukraine if Russia invaded Ukraine, and the same poll showed that 80 percent of Poles also believed that nato and the European Union should fight for Ukraine if Russia entered Kiev.
In the case of Nord Stream 2, Poland has also largely acted as Ukraine's microphone for NATO , a submarine pipeline built by Russian companies that carries natural gas to European countries, mainly Germany, in recent years. "(Nord Stream 2) is harmful and unnecessary." In an interview with the German newspaper Le Monde, Moravitsky said, "This will seriously undermine Ukraine's security." ”
In an awkward position as a non-EU and non-NATO country, Ukraine's presence in the European world depends largely on the promotion of Poland. Foreign Policy noted that the Polish government likes this feeling of being a big brother: "The Law and Justice party likes to portray itself as the sole defender of Europe from Russian and Belarusian invasions, which not only enhances the diplomatic image of the Polish ruling government, but also wins the hearts and minds of Polish voters." ”
Absolute priority
Poland is not without selfishness.
From repeated warnings and calls for Europe and NATO to unite to help Ukraine fight Russia, to public criticism of Nord Stream 2 for harming Ukrainian interests, to generously hosting Ukrainian refugees, Poland has its own agenda.
Ukrainian refugees at the Medica crossing / UNHCR
"Poland is at the heart of NATO's eastern flank, and while Poland has invested a lot of human and financial resources in its defense forces, its basic security depends directly on NATO's ability to respond to the Russian threat." Masin Trikowski, director of the International Security Program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), said bluntly, "Therefore, it is important for Poland to have NATO's next strategic goal collectively resist Russia." ”
In fact, today, the Russian enclave kaliningrad occupies an important strategic position in the northern Baltic Sea, while the Russian air defense system in Kaliningrad and western Belarus has a combat range sufficient to cover most of Poland's territory, and the entire Polish country is within the fuel-free combat radius of Russian warplanes.
To make matters worse, on the unsurpassed Nordic plains, if the ground forces of Belarus and Russia were to march toward Poland, there would be little geographical obstacle to their march.
Poland once wanted to build its own defensive line — in 2008, it pushed its neighbors, including Belarus and Ukraine, to join the European Union, just as it wanted to join NATO and the European Union (at that time, Poland even threatened to develop its own nuclear capabilities if it didn't), but the EU was reluctant to provoke the Kremlin and did not approve Poland's neighbors to join.
Thus, after the failure of the strategy of holding the weak together, Poland saw the unity of NATO as the most effective path of self-defense.
But uniting NATO is not easy, especially at this juncture – Poland and other European countries, especially major countries such as Germany and France, have had repeated frictions in the past two years.
At the end of 2019, Poland passed a controversial law that states that judges may be punished for engaging in "political activity" and that if a judge questions the legitimacy of a judge nominated by Poland's National Judicial Council, he or she can be fined, given a pay cut or even fired.
The law, which was questioned as "seriously endangering the independence of the judiciary," not only drew a wave of protests in Poland, but also angered the European Union, which took Poland to the European Supreme Court, saying that its "judiciary lacks judicial independence independent of the government." Late last year, the European Court of Justice ruled in favor of the European Commission imposing a daily fine of 1 million euros on Poland until it repealed the law. Just in mid-last month, Europe's supreme court approved the EU's cuts in financial aid to Poland as part of the penalty. The EU's fierce response has also been supported by many EU member states.
This sharp confrontation led the Polish Supreme Court to warn the authorities: "This law may force Poland to leave the European Union." ”
In addition to the estrangement between the EU and Poland, NATO is not monolithic. Following Trump's repeated confrontations with European countries, Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan has also made NATO troops quite critical. Turkey, one of the member states, has ambiguous relations with Russia, and the Nord Stream 2 has repeatedly made Germany a bull's-eye in Eastern European countries.
On March 2, a bridge deck / network in Bucha, a suburb of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, was destroyed by missiles
"These barriers and differences are very dangerous for Poland, which has a strong desire to integrate its transatlantic policies." The Brookings Institution wrote that "it must rely on nato's collective strength." According to Forbes magazine, although Poland has the highest military spending in Eastern Europe, it has fewer than a thousand tanks and most of its military equipment is outdated.
The United States also realized this after the Crimean War in 2014, and Washington has gradually moved to provide Warsaw with advanced military equipment suitable for defeating Russian troops, including 32 F-35 multi-role fighters, the first of which will be delivered in 2024; the Patriot Integrated Air Defense System, which will arrive in Poland by the end of this year; and the 250 advanced M1A2 main battle tanks that have recently been agreed upon.
So, after more than a year of stalemate with the EU, Poland was the first to show signs of softness: Polish President Andrey Duda, who had proposed controversial laws, voluntarily submitted a bill in early February to remove the controversial legislation in order to reverse the EU's funding cuts to Poland.
"We don't need this fight." Duda said. Mihał Potocki, a Polish journalist and lecturer at the University of Warsaw, echoed the concession: "The absolute priority is the security of the European continent, as well as the security of the Western world in a broad sense, the security of Ukraine, the security of Poland." ”
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is another opportunity for Warsaw to draw its allies closer. "Poland just reached a tripartite security deal with Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the middle of last month aimed at improving trade and defense cooperation between the three countries." The Spanish think tank Elcano Royal Institute of International and Strategic Studies analyzed, "This shows that Poland is more eager to become a regional node in security cooperation between Western Europe and Ukraine, and this contradiction is an opportunity for Poland." ”
In addition to the broader goal of national defense, real money and silver interests were also one of the motivations for Poland to stop doing so.
One of the most fierce issues nato has argued about in recent years is the construction of Nord Stream 2. Ukraine first accused Germany of being willing to work with Russian energy companies, and then turned its guns on the White House after Biden took office and said that "Nord Stream 2 is already a fait accompli."
Behind Ukraine's anger, Poland, which acts as a sounding board, actually has a mixed interest – the Yamal-European gas pipeline, which now transports gas to Europe, passes through Poland and Ukraine, so that the two countries can charge gas transportation fees.
"If the pipeline is built, Europe will be heavily dependent on Russian gas, the Yamal pipeline will become obsolete, and Poland and Ukraine will lose a lot of revenue." Mark Tennicky, a non-resident researcher at the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council, said, "Europe's dependence on Russia for energy in the future will allow the Kremlin to further interfere in the affairs of Poland, Ukraine and other countries in the region." ”
Therefore, in the face of whether nord Stream 2 should be called a halt in the War between Russia and Ukraine, the urgent Poland and the reluctant Germany are enough to reflect another reason why the Warsaw side is so fiercely united with the West and attacked Russia.
And the future remains uncertain: will Poland's choices and performances in the midst of this world-changing crisis rewrite its long-standing marginalized position in Europe?
"Only the West, united with Ukraine, can stop Russia. There is no room for doubt here. In an op-ed published in the Financial Times, Moravitsky repeatedly stressed his repeated arguments in recent days: "The EU and NATO must not have such an idea – willing to sacrifice Ukraine's future to restore peace." ”
And if he didn't say it, there may be another sentence: Ukraine's present may become the future of Poland. (Author / Ye Chengqi; Editor-in-Charge / Zhang Xibei)
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