We haven't said goodbye to covid-19 yet.
Written by | Yan Xiaoliu
Source | "Medical Community" public account
On February 24, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that all COVID-19 measures in England would be lifted. Scotland is close behind, with a degree of openness and timeline that is almost a replica of it. Welsh and Northern Ireland are also loosening.
One week later, the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and COVID-19 detection rates in the UK rose again.
According to the British "Daily Mail", this is the most obvious increase in the past month, or due to the fact that the Subtype BA.2 of the Opmi kerong strain has become the main popular strain. This strain is more infectious and spreads faster.
"It is not yet possible to say whether these fluctuations are transient." The Daily Mail quoted experts as calling on the public to remain calm. There is currently no evidence that BA.2 causes greater pressure to prevent the epidemic.
From 15 March, the UK will no longer require healthcare and nursing home workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19. /Reuters
The number of detections is small and the detection rate is high
On March 2, local time, the United Kingdom reported 44,017 new confirmed cases in a single day. This is an increase of 11% year-on-year from a week ago and significantly higher than the average number of daily confirmed cases in the most recent month (33,700 cases).
By region, the number of confirmed cases in Scotland increased most significantly, an increase of 30% year-on-year from 1 week ago. Over the same period, England and Northern Ireland increased by 8% and 5% respectively. Only the Welsh region saw a decline in confirmed cases, down 10% from 7 days ago.
Image courtesy of Daily Mail
At the same time, hospitalizations in the UK have also increased. As of February 26, local time, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year from a week ago.
Implemented to the region, the number of hospitalizations in Scotland has continued to increase since mid-February.
Image from the BBC
The Daily Mail believes that the PCR positivity rate indicator is also worth paying attention to. In England, for example, the PCR positivity rate (blue curve below) has risen in the past 7 days, indicating that the incidence rate is picking up.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, on March 2, local time, a total of 649,000 people completed the screening of the new crown virus, down 10% from a week ago. "Fewer tests and more detections indicate that the local epidemic is intensifying." The Daily Mail noted.
The image comes from Gov.UK
Infection and severe illness, death, disconnected
"There's no reason to panic at this point." Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, pointed out.
On the one hand, the number of hospitalizations due to the epidemic is still far below the peak of nearly 40,000 in January 2021. In addition, the number of hospitalized patients requiring assisted ventilation remains low (278) and down from 304 a week ago.
On the other hand, there has been no increase in mortality.
On March 2, the number of new deaths in the UK reached 74, down 54.9% from a week ago. As of that time, the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the country exceeded 160,000.
The BBC quoted clinicians as saying the way the UK calculates COVID-19 deaths is debatable. "The current calculations are 28 days after the covid-19 test is positive. These people may also die of other causes. ”
"The risk of mutant strains is also within the controllable range." Paul Hunter told the Daily Mail.
In February, the UK Health Security Agency released data saying that BA.2 had become a major epidemic strain in many parts of the UK. In the 7 days to 20 February, 52% of confirmed cases in England originated from BA.2 infection.
However, compared to the previous major epidemic strains, the outbreak caused by BA.2 is less severe. Even with a significant increase in the number of confirmed cases, the impact on hospitalizations or deaths is limited.
This finding was also confirmed in Denmark. On February 1, at the peak of the number of new cases confirmed on the same day exceeded 50,000, Denmark took the lead in canceling all epidemic prevention measures in the European Union.
In the early days of the epidemic in Olmikron, Dr. Nicolai Haase, who works in the intensive care unit of Copenhagen University Hospital, feared that it would soon be overcrowded. "The situation is beyond imagination. There was no increase in the number of severe cases. However, because the number of new cases is too large, other department wards are under pressure. ”
Tyra Grove Krause, chief epidemiologist at the Danish National Serum Institute, said that Denmark is seriously rethinking and conducting research on BA.2. "The link between the number of cases and severe illness has been severed, and the pressure on intensive care has eased."
Danish Prime Minister Mite Frederiksen said "confidence" came from Denmark's high vaccination rates. By the time of liberalization, 81 per cent of the entire population of Denmark had received a two-dose vaccination rate and 60 per cent of the total population had received a booster injection, which was one of the best in Western countries. Coupled with the fact that Denmark had confirmed about 2.5 million cases at that time, accounting for 48% of its total population, this made it a good herd immunity barrier.
The UK also has a double high number of natural infections and vaccination rates. As of March 2, the cumulative number of infections in the country reached more than 19 million, accounting for 28.3% of its total population. In the country, 92 per cent of those over the age of 12 have completed their first dose of vaccination, 85 per cent have received a second dose and 67 per cent have received a booster dose.
Paul Hunter believes that the number of BA.2 infections will not increase for a long time in the UK. "The pace of growth is already much slower than it was a few weeks ago."
On the streets of Copenhagen, Denmark, most pedestrians have taken off their masks. /Reuters
Fear of losing the opportunity
Some British scholars worry about the "future".
After April 1, the UK government will abolish the universal free COVID-19 testing, leaving only free testing for the elderly and susceptible people. Virus surveillance will be taken over by the National Bureau of Statistics. The bureau plans to randomly test 100,000 people a week to analyze the number of basic infections (R0 values) and track the dynamics of virus mutation.
"We may lose our head in the face of the virus." Graham Medley, director of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the University of London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Daily Mail.
Professor Medley believes that due to the large-scale free testing, the south-east of England is the first in the world to warn of "mutant alpha".
On November 25, 2021, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases of South Africa took the lead in reporting the Omikejung variant. Two days later, two cases of home-grown infection were reported and confirmed in the UK. By December of that year, the British Ministry of Health had announced that Opmiqueron would replace Delta as the main epidemic strain within weeks. As a result, many places in England once tightened their epidemic prevention.
Professor Medley pointed out that according to the published national statistical office monitoring process, there will be a 1-2 week delay in the collection of new variants in the UK in the future.
In addition, the UK has eliminated requirements such as testing for vaccinated people upon entry. Novel variants and imported cases can be hidden in the population.
On 2 March, Professor Medley addressed the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee to express his concerns.
A day earlier, two other members of the UK's Emergency Health Science Advisory Panel had expressed the same concern. "When the pandemic was completely eliminated, we didn't have time to model the trajectory of the pandemic. We cannot guarantee whether the next mutant strain will be weak or strong, and it is important to remain vigilant. ”
There are also scientists and Conservative MPs who support the elimination of mass screening. The Daily Mail analyzed that this was related to money. Uk public finances plan to cut costs by more than £2 billion this year – up from the monthly cost of the COVID-19 mass testing and case-tracing programme.
"This is not a 'final farewell' to COVID-19. We are ready for a winter rebound. On the occasion of the full lifting of the Denmark," the country's prime minister said.
At present, Denmark still provides free testing services such as rapid test kits to the public in order to understand dynamic data and react quickly when necessary.
On January 12, local time, the Danish Ministry of Health said that the fourth dose of vaccine was launched for susceptible people who had been vaccinated with booster injections in the fall of 2021.
Since then, the Danish government has reminded that in the late autumn and winter of this year, another peak of infection is expected, and vaccination may also be carried out, not excluding that everyone needs 4 injections.
Source:
1.UK's Covid outbreak is GROWING again: 11% week-on-week rise in cases puts end to a month of falling infections - as hospital admissions creep up but deaths halve. Daily Mail
2.Covid-19 in the UK: How many coronavirus cases are there in my area?. BBC
3.What are the UK's 'Living with Covid' plans?. BBC
4.Denmark has taken living with covid to a whole new level. ABC
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