Produced by | Tiger sniff car group
Author | Wang Xiaoyu
Header image | Visual China
Starting in 2021, making a new car brand is as simple as selling vegetables.
Li Yinan, the founder of Xiaoniu Electric Vehicle, has a car-making project - self-touring car, positioning intelligent high-end new energy vehicles. In December last year, the official brand name and LOGO were announced, and it received $500 million in financing. More than two months later, he came up with his first product, the self-touring NV. Coincidentally, another "cross-border player", the founder and CEO of Stone Technology Chang Jing's car-making team "Luoke Automobile", the initial product positioning is similar to the Mercedes-Benz G hardcore off-road model. The first appearance was to announce that it had received financing from Tencent and Sequoia Capital.
These two new crossover car-making players have one thing in common - they are all building extended-range electric vehicles.
The first car built by Li Yinan, from the Tour home NV, will launch two power forms at the same time: pure electricity and range extender. According to media reports, Chang Jingzuo's first car also chose to increase the range. Looking further ahead, Huawei's AITO Q&A M5 is also an extender, Dongfeng's high-end new energy brand Lantu Automobile, the first model Ofa Free is also a pure electric, extended range model sold at the same time.
The extended range electric car suddenly became the Pandora's box of the "novice village", once again lowering the threshold for car building. With the emergence of this wave of window periods, there will inevitably be more cross-border new players pouring in. You know, building cars now is equivalent to making rich.
First, has the threshold for building a car been lowered?
To make a range-extended electric vehicle, is there really no technical content? It's true.
Range-extender electric vehicles, which can refuel electric vehicles, have helped the ideal car to quickly complete the process from 0 to 1, even if you can't raise much money. As Li xiang said himself: "In the early days of the company's establishment, because my personal financing level was too poor, too poor, too poor, the money raised barely met the product research and development, self-built factories, supply chain and service system construction, as well as the payment of salaries to the team." ”
It is undeniable that the technical route of the extended range makes it easier to build a car. On the one hand, its engine and power battery can be purchased externally; on the other hand, now the biggest short board of pure electric power, endurance and charging problems, the extender directly passed the test. In this way, at least the first product can be quickly formed, and the basic capability will not be inferior to the pure electric model at the same price.
Ziyoujia NV did not disclose the supplier of the range extender, but according to a number of insiders revealed to Tiger Sniff, Ziyoujia NV will purchase Dongfeng's engine. Not surprisingly, it may be the same four-cylinder, 1.5T range extender of Landu FREE, from the C15TDR series engine independently developed by Dongfeng Group. The power battery is easier to purchase, and the battery pack of about 40kWh can easily reach pure electric endurance of more than 150km.
It's easy to assemble a range extension system, but it's extremely difficult to get the ride experience right.
Lu Fang, CEO of Lantu Automobile, once put forward a point of view to Tiger Sniff, launching two versions of pure electricity and extended range on the same chassis platform, and at the same time to achieve a consistent driving experience of the two cars, which is a huge challenge.
"We tortured the chassis team enough, the weight of the car was different, all the chassis had to be adjusted to the same feeling, everything had to be debugged, and we sometimes had internal meetings to say if we could cut a model." In the end, Lantu still decided that the two models must be put together, because it was necessary to provide users with really multiple solutions, but also paid a lot of time and manpower to make subtle adjustments.
It's not as simple as adding a generator to the triple-electric system. Compared with the pure electric vehicle model of the same platform, it adds a power generation system that relies on the fuel engine, and also reduces the capacity of the power battery, which will break the weight, power, NVH, etc. of the whole vehicle, and move the whole body.
"We are rarely able to do two at the same time in China (pure electricity and extended range), so far we are still at a good level." ——Lu Fang, who has worked hard in the automotive industry for more than twenty years, only dares to say "it's still good" evaluation. It can be seen that in the domestic automotive industry, it is not an easy task to do a good job.
Range-extended (left) and pure electric (right) platforms of self-touring cars
Even if it is, the AITO Q&I M5, which has been blessed by Huawei, is only a range extender model, and only a pure electric version is not purified. Because the extended range system is developed by Xilis itself, how much effort will be made behind the launch of the extended range and pure electric models, they are naturally the most aware in their hearts. Ideal ONE also tried to develop both pure electric and extended range versions at the same time, but finally gave up. Ma Donghui, chief engineer of Ideal Automobile, once introduced: "If you do pure electricity and range extension at the same time based on the same platform, you will definitely lose sight of one or the other, and neither can do the best." ”
In December 2020, the company's self-touring car, in more than a year, not only completed the process of products from 0 to 1, but also successfully obtained financing, which is a miracle. Not only that, according to relevant people to Tiger Sniff, Ziyoujia will hold a launch conference for this product this month and open the pre-sale of Self-Youjia NV. The officially announced delivery time is September this year.
For reference, there were three important phases in the birth of the Ideal ONE, with a gap of four years: the company was founded in 2015; the first product was released in October 2018; and delivery began in December 2019. Lantu Automobile, which was incubated within dongfeng group, shortened the time to more than a year, and the brand was established in July 2020, the first product was released in December 2020, and the official delivery was made in August 2021.
At present, the manufacturer has not given the NV real car that can be driven on the road, so we cannot easily draw any conclusions about the performance of the extended range system and the overall driving. But what is certain is that there is not much time left for self-travelers. This can also be seen from the self-touring NV in the smart cockpit, intelligent driving level - they are very anxious to bring this new car to the market.
Second, new forces, no "new"
"CarPlay is definitely not a trend, they may be too late, first pile up the hardware." A person in the smart cockpit industry told Tiger Sniff. In addition to the controversy over the extender technology, the Self-Tourer NV carplay system is also a bizarre operation.
CarPlay is Apple's mobile phone screen projection software, in short, it is to use the software App and traffic on the mobile phone to project basic functions such as navigation, music and so on to the car machine. The most intuitive difference with the car machine system is that the hardware of the car machine side cannot be called, such as the positioning of the car, the network, etc., which are commonly present in traditional fuel models without intelligent foundation.
Self-touring NV real shot interior drawings
"For us, CarPlay is a complete shame," an insider of a new force of head car manufacturing told Tiger Sniff, "the speed of the network, the richness of the APP library, the response time of the car are the basic capabilities of the smart cockpit." If all of this is achieved, and CarPlay is still used, it is a shame. And the implication of his words is that the basic ability is not enough to use CarPlay.
"Their starting point may be that they did not do a good job in their own ecology, that is to say, his APP end and the car machine side were not connected together through the cloud platform, so they finally launched CarPlay." The above-mentioned person also mentioned that the CarPlay function is unable to do real-time sharing of data, "the mobile phone is a mobile phone, the car machine is a car machine, CarPlay is only an extension of the mobile phone, and cannot be connected with the car machine."
Concept art of carplay function on board the NV car
In the product description of The Self-Traveling Home NV, it is written: "CarPlay will optimize the navigation, audio, schedule, call, information and other Apps that meet the user's personal usage habits according to the driving scenario, and naturally extend the mobile phone function to the car system." Users can also evoke a voice assistant, Siri, through voice or steering wheel buttons, enabling voice control of car apps and cockpit functions. ”
In fact, although this idea of self-travelers has put down the dignity that new car-making forces should have, as a new brand with zero users, with mature products such as CarPlay, at least it will not be reduced because of the cockpit experience. In addition, a new company has a low voice in the supply chain, and it is extremely difficult for you to ask a third-party App to match your own car engine system.
In the article "Car companies make mobile phones, a big chess game other than revenge", we also mentioned a small dilemma encountered in the current development of the smart cockpit industry - "From the hardware and technical level, it is not difficult to experience a smooth car standard central control screen, but in order to make this screen carry better content, the negotiation process with content providers has become the biggest difficulty." ”
The main driver's screen (top) of the Tourer NV and the display of the Maverick Motorcycle (bottom) are similar in design
In contrast, using CarPlay to make up for the shortcomings of the smart cockpit is almost a wonderful choice. "The screen projection is actually really able to get the hand or Apple CarPlay, other investment is insufficient or limited capacity", an industry insider engaged in new energy vehicle electronic cockpit solutions told Tiger Sniff, but as a new force, in fact, the core competitiveness is still the automatic driving system.
The reality is that if you expect a new brand to give you a smart driving experience that surpasses Tesla's, the odds are almost zero. A lidar industry source told Tiger Sniff: "Mass production of high-end intelligent driving is not an easy task for traditional leading car manufacturers, they have not even really built a car experience when they join the car, and they will challenge the hard mode when they come up, which is definitely extremely risky." ”
Since the tour home NV has not announced the functions related to intelligent driving, but from the perspective of the hardware configuration of the real car, it is not difficult to achieve L2-level assisted driving capabilities by purchasing the solutions of mature suppliers. Above the front windshield is a monocular camera, and the lower section of the front bumper is equipped with multiple sets of ultrasonic probes, with ultrasonic radar and millimeter wave radar set around the perimeter of the vehicle. A set of cameras is arranged on the outside of the exterior mirror to achieve the driving assistance function of the 360 without dead angles. The inside of the exterior mirrors, as well as the fenders, reserve an area for mounting the camera.
From the perspective of industry competition, in the camp of new car-making forces, a large number of new models equipped with lidar will be introduced to the market in 2022. For example, ideal X01, Gaohe Hiphi Z, Xiaopeng G9, NIO ET7, Zhiji L7, WM M7 and so on. According to Tiger Sniff, there are at least 12 lidar models that have been mass-produced/planned for mass production in 2022. As long as you go to the battlefield, there is no saying that you respect the old and love the young.
For the first car not to go on lidar, Li Yinan's explanation is: "There are many reasons, I don't want to explain them one by one, but we just think that it is a better choice for us at this stage." As for our user, if he uses lidar as a necessary condition, we may not be able to meet his requirements. As for the competitiveness thing, I think the least important thing is competitiveness, and the most important thing is what we can bring to our customers. ”
Li Yinan believes that automatic driving is definitely a revolutionary technology brought to the automotive industry by artificial intelligence, but this revolutionary technology also needs a long time to continuously evolve. The arrival of new technologies must be based on the basic premise of improving user experience and absolute security.
The above-mentioned lidar industry insiders also expressed similar views to Tiger Sniff: "Vehicle-mounted lidar has not really been mass-produced and verified by the market, and it will take as little as 2-3 years or more than 5 years." They first accumulated know-how on a car without lidar, and ran the road to building a car, while developing L3 and L4 would be more stable. ”
Of course, what technology to use, what hardware to use, in the end to solve the user's pain points, there are trade-offs is a very normal thing. But whether you can use new technologies and whether you can control new hardware is the embodiment of the ability of the organization and system level of the enterprise.
However, the car industry is developing too fast now, and there is not enough time for new forces to grow. This is like what Li Yinan said in an interview: "In the 3 years since we built a car, we have not stolen a day of laziness, nor have we been short of money for a day." "The competition in the market and the pressure of capital have forced the new forces to compress the cycle of products to the limit. The most important thing is to survive first.
Who needs a second wave of new forces?
In his book The Great Madness: Mass Mania and the Bubble Economy, Charles McKay used the word "bubble" as a metaphor for the "tulip mania" in the Netherlands in 1636. There is usually a default principle that when the price of an asset far exceeds its intrinsic value, then there is a bubble in the asset.
On December 15, 2021, Ziyoujia Auto announced the completion of a round of $500 million financing, including investment by IDG Capital, COATUE and other world-renowned institutions. Almost at the same time, Rock Technology founder and CEO Chang Jing's car-making project Luoke Automobile also completed a financing of 100 million US dollars, led by Tencent Group, and the investment institution Sequoia also participated in the investment. At present, the company is making a new round of financing at a valuation of $2 billion.
Before the car started selling, the company's valuation was topped to billions of dollars, what is the logic behind it? As a reference, a person familiar with the investment circle of Youjia Auto told Tiger Sniff three logics: "He (Li Yinan) is a serial entrepreneur who successfully exited the company; he stepped on this time node is better; his resource integration ability and management experience of large companies are worthy of recognition." ”
There is also a GBF valuation system in the primary market, known as "Get Big Fast".
This valuation method is quite simple to use, that is, to find a target that may become in the future as a benchmark, and then to value it based on the assumption that the target at hand will get financing, grow quickly, and make the most ideal financial data. That is, based on the market ceiling that may be reached in the future, foresee an endgame, and then fold back to determine how much it is worth now.
For example, in the Chinese dim sum industry, there were predecessors such as "Hollywood" as a benchmark in the front, and the later "Mo Mo Dim Sum Bureau" naturally did not worry about financing. The same is true of the automotive industry, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal have completed IPOs in recent years, and recently Weilai has to go to Hong Kong for a second listing. The second wave of new forces will be able to go public, at least to reach the scale of tens of billions of dollars market value. (As of the close of U.S. stocks on March 1, NIO's latest market capitalization was $34.802 billion, Xiaopeng Motors was $28.981 billion, and Ideal Auto was $31.42 billion.) ）
In terms of development path, it will be very similar. First, let the first car quickly enter the market, and then accumulate user and market feedback, attract financing and expand research and development efforts; then, quickly launch a second more competitive product, while completing the company's IPO to continue to expand financing. In this way, round after round of blood transfusion finally puts the product on the right track and allows the company to maintain a healthy "self-hematopoietic" state.
But then again, the capital that is flocking to it at this stage is overdrawing the performance that a large number of new forces may achieve in the next few years. It's always a big gamble, but there are no losers in the gamble, and it's often the ordinary consumers who ultimately grow their performance.
For consumers, do they really need a new brand? Or what kind of new brands are consumers looking for?
J.D. Power has released the 2021 China New Car Purchase Intention Study SM (NVIS), which concluded that nearly a quarter of consumers who have car purchase intentions in the next six months will take intelligent experience as the most important factor in car purchase decisions.
They found that Chinese consumers are demanding smart configurations. Among the seven factors that affect car purchase decisions, the intelligent experience of the car occupies 14% of the weight, and 24% of the intended car buyers believe that the intelligent experience of the car is the most important consideration for their car purchase. At the same time, the study also found that the lack of new technology or sense of technology has become the third largest car buying concern for potential customers.
When talking about the "future product form", Li Xiang once talked about a methodology: "The impact of the high market share of new energy vehicles is that users are getting more and more aware of products, which is an opportunity for us. The methodology for making products has not changed, and it still involves three levels. ”
He believes that the first layer is the obvious needs expressed by users, the second layer is the implicit needs generated by users, and the third layer is our insight into the needs of users and the creation of functions. Combining these three levels, only after observing, analyzing and verifying the rational and perceptual level of users can products that exceed user needs be launched.
This is actually very easy to understand, the first layer, is the user's demand, such as I want CarPlay, the car company thinks that this is the real user demand, then add. The second layer may not be directly expressed by the user, but after owning, it will produce actual value. For example, the self-developed AEB done by Ideal ONE allows the product to reduce the losses caused by the scratching accident during the product life cycle. The third layer, it may be like tesla in the car, Apple on the phone to do a lot of things, through insight to create user needs, or even educate users.
This comes back to the most fundamental problem of car building, if you did not think about what needs to solve the user at the beginning, nor did you have the ability to translate the needs for the user after the product was delivered, let alone the ability to create demand for the user in the future product operation. So, relying on the procurement and assembly of various configurations, what is the significance of creating a car?
Then there may be only one answer - to build a car is to make a rich.
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