This season, the Warriors are in the league's top ten teams in terms of offensive efficiency, and you might not have imagined that one day, they would be worried about scoring. Against the Lone Rangers, the Warriors scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter, and at the crucial moment, it was a series of riots that eventually left them with a 21-point lead.
It was supposed to be a hand-held victory, and ESPN data models showed that the Warriors had a 99.3 percent chance of winning. But suffering such an embarrassing reversal undoubtedly affected the confidence of the entire team, and more importantly, the loss also made them miss a good time to catch up with the sun.
The Warriors squandered a 21-point lead
The Warriors' game is still to watch, wake up to another big win, and at the end of the third quarter, some Warriors fans in the comment area, Versailles generally said such words. But it is estimated that they may now have some regrets, whether they have lost their character. Who would have thought that in the fourth quarter, the Warriors conceded 11 consecutive goals, and the Lone Ranger played a 26-1 offensive wave to reverse the score.
This is the first time since 2007 that the Warriors have lost in the regular season with a 20-point lead, and in the fourth quarter, the Warriors' performance has stunned many fans. What makes everyone even more dissatisfied is that during this period, head coach Kerr did not request a timeout for more than 5 minutes, and the way of hosting coaching was criticized by many netizens.
Throughout the game, the Warriors bench was all negative, of which Porter was awkward -17, Cumminga -14, and Poole -12. In contrast, in the Wizards seem to have been abandoned, Dinwiddie, who came off the bench to contribute 24 points and 5 assists, plus or minus as high as +24.
What is even more embarrassing is that in the absence of Dream Green and Iguodala, Kerr voluntarily gave up Looney at a critical moment, small to small, and the result was full of holes in the basket, and the Warriors lost 6 points from a lead of 1 point to the end in the last four minutes. Perhaps, some people can still understand Kerr's small-to-small thinking, but playing a small lineup means that the Warriors may rely more on three-pointers on the offensive end and in key moments.
With 3:54 left in the fourth quarter, the Warriors requested a timeout, and on the next four offenses, they chose three-point shots, all of which resulted in iron. An interesting statistic is that the Warriors have averaged 2.9 three-pointers per game in key moments this season, ranking seventh in the league, but their shooting rate is only 27.9%, which is the league's bottom level.
Of course, at that time, there were also some fans who hoped that Curry could come forward and stage a magical three-pointer to save the team. But an embarrassing thing is that Curry hasn't been good at key moments this season, averaging just 2.8 points per game, ranking 25th in the league, while he shot just 32.8 percent from the field and 18.9 percent from three-point range. Originally, the Momentum of the Lone Ranger in the fourth quarter was hot, and it was in a buff bonus state, and in the fourth quarter, the Warriors' series of riot operations allowed the advantages they established in the first three quarters to collapse in an instant.
Missed the opportunity to catch up with the sun
Of course, after all, it is the regular season, and if a game is lost, the Warriors can still afford to lose. More important than a loss, though, is that the Warriors missed the perfect opportunity to catch up with the Suns.
According to the prediction of basketball data website Basketball Reference, the Suns have a 98.1% chance of getting the league's first record this season, under normal circumstances, they should not be a problem to win more than 60 games, and the stability of the Suns can be said to be the only one in the league. If it's a healthy sun, then the rest of the league wants to outdo their opponents in the rankings without any chance.
But recently, Paul suffered a tear fracture of the thumb of his right hand, and he was on a suspension of at least a month and a half to two months, and the rest of the regular season looks like he's going to be recuperating. Paul's absence, the impact on the Suns is too great, he is an important reason for the team's rapid removal from the status of the fish belly, at the key moments of this season, Paul's shooting rate is as high as 56.9%, three-point shooting rate reached 40%.
Sure enough, after All-Star Weekend, the Suns only achieved a record of 1 win and 2 losses, and the only win was the victory over the Thunder. Originally, the ticketball reference predicted that the Suns would have a 15-7 record for the rest of the games, but according to the performance after the All-Star Weekend, the Suns will definitely be lower than expected.
If the Warriors had taken down the Lone Ranger today, they would have been only 5 wins away from the Sun. But after the loss, the gap between the Warriors and the Suns widened to six wins. Compared with the Suns, the Remaining Journey of the Warriors this season is not easy, and among the Western Conference teams, the Lakers rank first in the difficulty of the remaining schedule, and the Warriors rank second. This means that the Warriors will face more strong teams in the next game. After today's game against the Lone Rangers, the Warriors in the next 7 games, in addition to the Lakers, the remaining opponents are the top eight teams in the East and West.
If the Warriors can play a wave of winning streaks, there is a complete chance to catch up with the sun. But today's game suffered an awkward reversal, and the Warriors may wonder if it's necessary to catch up with the Suns with little left of the season. After all, the team still has a lot of injuries, and such a choice will not overdraft Curry.
On one side, it is becoming more and more difficult to catch the sun, and on the other hand, the grizzly bear behind him is still staring at the tiger. Today, the gap between the Grizzlies and warriors is only 1.5 wins, and throughout February, the Warriors have only a 50% win rate. If overtaken by the Grizzlies, the Warriors could lose not only home advantage in the second round of the playoffs, but also a great opportunity for Curry to fight for another MVP.
Whether it will be a pity
Although the regular season and the playoffs will be different games, if conditions permit, every team will pursue a better regular season record. This season, many people are saying that the pattern of strong west and weak east has changed, the first place in the East to the sixth place in the East, only a gap of 5 wins, almost every day, the ranking of the East is changing. On the Western Side, in addition to the Lone Rangers and Nuggets rankings, it seems that it is still difficult for other teams to change the rankings.
However, this does not mean that this year's West will be much easier to play, and now, the top three teams in the West, their record is actually the top three in the league, and with the return of Jamal Murray and Paul George in March, the competition in the Playoff West may still be very fierce.
The confrontation between strong teams and strong teams, the victory and defeat are often between millimeters, at this time, if you have home field advantage, you will undoubtedly take the initiative. The data shows that since 1984, the NBA team's playoff win rate at home has reached 65%, and in the past two years, due to the impact of the epidemic, attendance and other factors, this data has declined a lot, but home advantage can still play an important role in key games.
For example, last year's playoff Clippers vs. Lone Rangers, although that round of the series, many people ridiculed, the Clippers used the away advantage, but the most critical seven big game, the Clippers are at home, and finally they also laughed to the end. In the eyes of many media experts, the Warriors and the Suns are still the most likely teams to meet in the Western Conference Finals this year, according to the current rankings, the key Battle of Tianwangshan, and the seventh game of the series, will be at home to the Suns, if because of this, the Warriors missed a great chance to win the championship, it is really too much of a pity.
Every player likes to play at home, especially in the playoffs, the familiar home color scheme, the cheers of the fans, and most importantly, the reduction of travel, in this case, the players will naturally perform better.
Counting today's match with the Lone Rangers, the Warriors' home record this season is 26 wins and 7 losses, and the Suns are the first in the league, that is, the Chase Center is the most difficult home in the league to be conquered by opponents this season. But if it comes to the road, the Warriors will become a different team, with a record of only 17 wins and 11 losses, and the winning percentage has slipped by more than 10 percentage points. In contrast, the Suns' 23-5 and Grizzlies' 22-10 road performances were better than those of the Warriors.
The data shows that this season, the Warriors' home offensive efficiency reached 113.5, the defensive efficiency was 102, and the net win per 100 rounds was 11.6 points, but when the team played on the road, the team could score 109.8 points per 100 rounds, and the score difference reached 107.4 points, and the net win score per 100 rounds was only 2.4 points.
Of course, the Warriors strive for better records, certainly not for the first round, from the history of the NBA, the probability of the first round of the NBA division's first playoff round has reached 93%, and the probability of the second division to advance is the same as the probability of the first division. The Warriors chased the Suns for the next semi-finals and divisional finals.
A somewhat embarrassing thing is that while the regular season record is not bad, the media is not optimistic about the Warriors' playoff prospects. For example, in the prediction of the five thirty eight, the Warriors are likely to end up with a record of 55 wins and 27 losses, and like the Grizzlies, their probability of reaching the division finals is only 12%, and the probability of winning the championship is only 4%. The Suns, Bucks, Philadelphia, Heat and Jazz are just ahead of the Warriors, and the Grizzlies and Nuggets are also higher than them.
One of the big reasons for this is that this Warriors have not yet proven themselves. The last time the Warriors reached the Finals was in 2019, but the Warriors team at the time had Kevin Durant, and the lineup was completely different from now.
Klay Thompson has just returned after two consecutive seasons off this season, and Green is still in recuperation. Many of the team's role players have not yet gone through the playoffs, and today's game proves once again that the Warriors' bench still lacks some resilience when they play hard battles, coupled with their ups and downs over the past two months, which has cast a shadow over the Warriors' prospects.