The Russians launched an all-out offensive against Ukraine
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the Russian army that launched a full-line offensive carried out rocket and missile attacks and air strikes on several Ukrainian cities and military bases, and by February 25, Russian infantry and armored units had been divided into three routes to the outskirts of the capital Kiev.
In the largest offensive in Europe since the Second World War, 60% of the total strength of the Russian ground forces was concentrated near the Russian-Ukrainian border, and their forces were deployed in all directions as follows: the 35th Army, the 98th Airborne Division, the 76th Airborne Division on the right flank in the north of Belarus, the 5th, 35th, 36th, 20th, and 41st Tank Divisions on the left flank, supplemented by anti-aircraft and anti-missile forces and rocket forces. The 20th Army and the 1st Tank Army were deployed on the right flank in eastern Ukraine, the 8th Army was deployed on the left flank, supplemented by rocket forces and air defense forces; in the direction of southern Crimea, the Russian army was deployed into the Black Sea Fleet, the 58th Army, the 2nd Army and auxiliary combat forces.
The ratio of inputs between the Russian Air Force and the Ukrainian Air Force is extremely large, with the ratio of Russian-Ukrainian fighters to 873:48, the ratio of fighters to bombers to 742:25, the ratio of transport aircraft to 424:32, the ratio of attack helicopters to 531:34, and the ratio of transport helicopters to 1522:121.
In terms of naval strength, Russia has invested 140 combat and support ships, 60 naval aviation forces, and more than 10,000 naval combatants; Ukraine's total naval combat force is only more than 10 ships.
At present, there are concerns that Moscow's move may rewrite the global post-Cold War security borders.
On February 24, UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated his call at UN Headquarters in New York on Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt his attacks on Ukraine and withdraw his troops. "Decisions in the coming days will shape our world and directly impact the lives of millions of people." He said.
Guterres also said that the use of force by one State against another violates the fundamental principles of the United Nations agreed by all States in the Charter of the United Nations.
Putin on the 24th in a lengthy televised speech full of historical grievances and accusations denounced the West's long-term plot against Russia, reminding everyone that Russia "is still one of the most powerful nuclear countries in the world" and "has certain advantages in many sophisticated weapons fields."
The New York Times commented that Putin's speech was actually a defense against Ukraine militarily and more like a nuclear war threat than any declaration by the world's major leaders for decades. His public purpose could not have been clearer: to prevent any military action the West might take by showing that he would not hesitate to escalate the situation.
With the blessing of Russia's nuclear arsenal, Putin has made no secret of the fact that "all potential invaders will suffer defeat and doom if they directly attack our country." At this point, all necessary decisions have been taken. ”
Before dawn on the 25th, kiev sounded the sound of explosions again, and gunshots appeared in many parts of the city. Western leaders will hold an emergency meeting, while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy has called on the international community to provide more assistance for Ukraine's anti-Russian war.
Once the Russian army launches a general offensive on Kiev, Zelenskiy's democratically elected government may be overthrown, the casualty number will rise sharply, and the global economy will be seriously affected.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said on the 25th that the Russian reconnaissance and special operations forces have entered the Oberon area, which is only a few miles from the center of Kiev. According to the Ukrainian side, the Russian army locked Kiev as the target of its missile fire, and two flying missiles were hit and destroyed by the Ukrainian army.
Since fighting could break out at any time, the Ministry of Defence warned local residents not to go out so as not to be injured by mistake. Kiev police also warned the public not to leave a subway station in the city center because of a gun battle.
The Ukrainian military also announced on the 25th that a vanguard force of the Russian army disguised as the Ukrainian government army has been annihilated. The Russian force originally wanted to blend into the capital, but their identity was exposed 10 minutes north of Kiev and they were wiped out by the Ukrainians in a shootout.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army's airborne commandos were fighting Russian armored units in Both Dymer, 45 kilometers north of Kiev, and Ivankiv, 80 kilometers north of Kiev.
"There are a lot of enemy armored units there.". The Ukrainian military said the enemy's superior forces had been blocked on the banks of the Tetrov River, where bridges had been destroyed.
According to the Ukrainian military, the Russian army is approaching the capital from the northeast and east in addition to facing Kiev from the north.
Ukrainian soldiers in battle
In the city of Kiev, the Ukrainian army established defensive positions at several locations, including bridges; Many Kiev residents, who had no time to flee, stood in the corridors of their apartment buildings, watching or discussing the situation worriedly.
In the meantime, as the war situation on the ground developed, both the West and Moscow increased their information disclosure efforts. According to the U.S. military and NATO analysis, Russian troops advancing into Kiev and other major towns as part of a plan to "decapitate" the Ukrainian government appear to have lost some momentum.
Russian forces are slowly penetrating deeper into the heart of Ukraine, with explosions and gunfire coming from parts of Kiev, as well as in the areas around Kharkov in the north and Hurlpi in the south. A senior U.S. defense official, who asked on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence, said that since the beginning of the war, the Russian military has fired more than 200 ballistic missiles and cruise ballistics in the offensive, most of which have targeted ukrainian troops.
But the official said intelligence showed the Russians were not operating as smoothly as senior commanders had hoped. "The Russian side has lost a little momentum," the official said. "They didn't push deep enough to believe they expected them to advance."
Of particular note is the seeming impasse of the Russian offensive against Kiev.
"They encountered resistance that exceeded their expectations," the U.S. official said. He added that while the Russians had numerical superiority and were trying to eliminate Ukrainian air defenses, air superiority had not yet been established. At the same time, Ukraine's command and control system is "intact."
The Russian military also put forward its own statement on the 25th. The Russian side said that the Russian army has made solid progress, according to their statement, the Russian army is to eliminate the terrorist threat.
Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said in a social media post that the Russian army destroyed more than 200 Ukrainian military facilities and dozens of air defense systems and radar stations, and eliminated a small number of Ukrainian fighters, helicopters and military vehicles.
The Russians also announced on the same day that they had taken control of Gostomery, a strategic airfield northwest of Kiev. The Russian claims could not be confirmed for the time being, but Ukrainian authorities reported that there were still fierce fighting on the ground.
In Kiev, President Zelenskiy tried to inspire the nation to unite in the war. He dismissed rumors that he had escaped from Kiev, insisting that he and other government officials were "all here to defend our independence, our country."
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Demitro Kureba condemned what he called a "terrible rocket attack" on the city, with some residential areas being hit.
On the other hand, The mayor of Kiev and former world weight boxing champion Vitaly Klitsko said Kiev had entered the defensive phase and warned of Russian saboteur activity in the city.
Western officials praised the Ukrainian army, but cautioned that the situation on the ground was changing rapidly. They noted that things could change quickly, especially given that about two-thirds of the 190,000 troops that Russian troops have assembled near the Ukrainian border have not been put into combat.
They also warned that Moscow was trying to blur the situation on the ground with disinformation and was trying to intimidate the Ukrainian army and bring it to its knees.
A US intelligence official said on the 25th: "Our information shows that Russia is launching a disinformation campaign by publishing false news about the large-scale surrender of Ukrainian troops." ”
The official added: "Our information also shows that Russia plans to threaten to kill the families of Ukrainian servicemen who refuse to surrender." ”
The UnHCR warned on the 25th that the two-day offensive launched by the Russian army has forced more than 50,000 people to flee their homes.
Washington said many people were trying to cross the border into Poland and estimated tens of thousands of Ukrainians were on their way to flee.
NATO vowed on the 25th to continue to support the Ukrainian government and army, and warned that NATO has taken unprecedented action to prevent Russia from invading NATO member states.
Speaking to reporters in Brussels after a video conference between the heads of the NATO alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: "We are deploying part of the NATO response force on land, sea and air to further strengthen our posture and respond quickly to any unforeseen events." ”
"There must be no room for miscalculation and misreading," he said of NATO's first launch of the 40,000-strong force. "We will do everything we can to protect and defend every inch of our allies and every inch of NATO's territory."
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Kiev "may soon be under siege" and Washington believes the Kremlin is trying to install its own puppet regime in Kiev.
Over the past few weeks, the United States and its Western allies have warned that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. Putin first repeatedly denied plans to invade Ukraine, and then suddenly invaded the former Soviet republic, which was increasingly eager to join the Western camp.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy strongly called on world leaders to impose more severe punitive measures on Russia than the sanctions previously announced by Western countries, and at the same time provide more military assistance to Kiev.
"If you don't help us now, if you don't provide strong aid to Ukraine, then tomorrow the war will knock on your door." Zelenskiy said.
Kiev also said that Kiev had proposed Ukraine's membership in NATO to the leaders of 27 European countries, but "everyone was scared and no one responded to me." ”
Zelenskiy delivered a televised speech on the 24th
The Office of the President of Ukraine announced that the President would remain in the capital Kiev, and Zelenskiy ordered the severance of diplomatic relations with Moscow, the establishment of the Supreme Command, the imposition of national martial law and a 90-day national military mobilization.
On the 25th, former European Council President Donald Tusk lashed out at the Member States of the European Union that prevented more severe sanctions against Russia.
Tusk, who led the European Union Council meeting in his capacity as president between 2014 and 2019, revealed deep divisions among Europe's political elites, and what could be the continent's worst crisis moment since the end of World War II unfolded.
Hours earlier, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz led a group of leaders to veto tougher sanctions at an emergency summit in Brussels. The EU heads of state and government rejected the personal appeals of Ukraine's top leaders, and Kiev demanded the harshest sanctions against Moscow, directly removing Russia from the SWIFT international payment system.
Zelenskiy said his country is fighting alone while "the world's most powerful power is watching from afar." Tusk said EU capitals should be "ashamed of themselves."
However, the ambassadors of the 27 member states of the European Union have agreed on the 25th that they will freeze the European assets of Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov before the next wave of sanctions is approved. An official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "We are moving as fast as we can. "The EU could also impose sanctions on more Russian oligarchs than there are now.
After the European Union targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin himself and froze the assets of him and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the U.S. sanctions seem to be moving further.
Biden announced on the 25th that he will order the ban on President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov from entering the country. Later in the day, a White House spokesman announced that Washington would impose sanctions on the "State Fund for Direct Investment in Russia" that absorbs foreign investment.
Eu foreign ministers also met in Brussels at 14:00 GMT on the 25th to discuss the details of the package of sanctions. This is the second round of sanctions against Russia prepared by the EU this week, and at the emergency summit held in the early morning of the 25th, the EU leaders agreed in principle to the plan.
The agreement reached by the leaders of the EU-27 countries on the evening of the 25th means that the group will take measures with the United States and other countries, such as restricting Moscow's access to key technologies and funds. The sanctions would also target the Russian elite and make the travel of diplomats more difficult.
But EU leaders chose not to curb Russia's energy imports for the time being, and, against the opposition of countries such as Germany and Italy, did not immediately cut off Russia's ties with SWIFT's global bank payment system.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire presided over a meeting of EU finance ministers in Paris to discuss the economic consequences. France is in favor of excluding Russia from the Swift global banking system to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at a news conference at the EU Finance Ministers' Meeting, the French finance minister said, "Some EU member states have expressed reservations about this, but France is not one of them." He explained that the "financial weapon" is not in the arsenal of Western sanctions against Moscow, saying that "the EU must reach a consensus on this."
Le Maire stressed that the EU Finance Ministers' Meeting has made a request for the ECB and the European Commission to analyze the role and consequences of adopting SWIFT sanctions in the coming hours. "Removing Russia from SWIFT deals is still an option, but as a last resort," he said. “
After Russia launched an all-out assault on Ukraine, there was great concern about why the Western world did not include kicking Russia out of the global interbank payment system SWIFT, known as the "financial nuclear weapon", among the successive sanctions announced by the Western world.
Some analysts said that although SWIFT can deal a heavy blow to Russian banks, it may also lead to Russia joining hands with other countries to set up its own payment system.
The German government said earlier on the 25th that kicking Russia out of SWIFT is technically difficult to arrange and will have a huge impact on the transactions of Germany and German companies in Russia. However, german finance ministers then said at a meeting in Paris that Berlin was open to launching SWIFT sanctions.
US President Biden announced new sanctions against Russia at the White House on the 24th, including the asset freeze on Russia's largest bank, Sberbank and four other financial institutions; prohibiting Russian state-owned enterprises from financing from Us and European investors; cutting off more than half of Russia's high-tech imports; and expanding sanctions on Russian elites and their family members. But the new sanctions do not include excluding Russia from the SWIFT international payment system. Biden said at the time that the measure was still an option, but so far European countries have not yet reached a consensus on it.
SWIFT is an acronym for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. The organization was founded in 1973 and is headquartered outside Brussels, Belgium. It is an institution that provides information transfer services between more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and regions. Last year's average daily message was 42 million, including orders and confirmations for payments, transactions and currency exchanges.
For the United States and its European allies, removing Russia from the SWIFT financial system would be one of the toughest financial measures they will take against Moscow, with immediate and long-term damage to the Russian economy. The move could cut Russia off most international financial transactions, including profits from oil and gas exports, which together account for more than 40 percent of Russia's fiscal revenues.
The three Baltic foreign ministers all called for Russia to be kicked out of SWIFT on the 24th. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were all once ruled by the former Soviet Union and are now members of the European Union and NATO. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is also working to exclude Russia from SWIFT.
However, German Chancellor Scholz said on the 24th that cutting off Russia's connection with SWIFT's global interbank payment system should not become part of the EU's second set of sanctions against Moscow. "It's very important that we agree on the measures that are already in place — and leave everything else [the option] for situations where we might need to go beyond those measures," he said. "Half of Germany's gas supply comes from Russia, and more than a third of the gas imported by the entire EU comes from Russia.
Nicholas Vijean, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic policy think tank, pointed out that European countries are not sure whether to kick Russia out of SWIFT because it involves many European interests, especially countries that are highly dependent on Russian gas, although doing so can deal a heavy blow to Russian banks.
"One of the big questions here is how it will affect other issues if action is taken against SWIFT, for example, the discussion about Russian delivery of gas, which is a current concern." "There are trade-offs involved, which may explain why countries like Germany and Italy are hesitant," he said. ”
Russia is an important energy supplier in Europe, and all European countries rely on the SWIFT system to pay for gas to Russia, and cutting off SWIFT will cause Moscow to cut off gas supply due to the inability to get payment. In 2014, when König palace annexed Crimea, the Western countries considered excluding Russia from the SWIFT system. Moscow claimed at the time that kicking it out of SWIFT was tantamount to declaring war on Russia. As a result, some observers argue that excluding Russia from the SWIFT system amounts to the launch of the "nuclear option."
But some analysts argue that the metaphor of the "nuclear option" exaggerates the effects of sanctions such as kicking out the SWIFT system, and that it may be worse than direct sanctions against Russian banks.
The French economist Viggio, who also works as a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said SWIFT is just a system of information transmission, not a cross-border flow of money, it is not a clearing system, nor a settlement system, nor a trading system.
"I think this 'nuclear option' metaphor is a bit unfortunate because, it's not going to kill anybody," Vijang said. It would complicate the days of the Bank of Russia, but it didn't actually prevent the execution and completion of transactions. It just makes everything more complicated because SWIFT is very convenient when you have it. ”
Swift excluded most of Iran's banks from 2012 to 2016, which did hit the Iranian economy hard, but it didn't bring iran down, Vijean said.
Since 2014, the Russian Central Bank has designed a Russian-grown financial information system, SPFS, for domestic and foreign banks. But that system only had about 400 users.
In addition, some Western officials and scholars worry that banning the use of SWIFT in certain countries will encourage these countries to find alternatives. Warren Bailey, a professor of finance at Cornell University's School of Business, holds this view.
The French economist Vigen said that the EU did not completely rule out the adoption of SWIFT sanctions against Russia, and the final decision depended on the development of the situation in Ukraine, but he believed that the time had come to sacrifice all means.
"24 hours ago, I would have said that cutting off Russia's ties with SWIFT is not necessarily a positive balance of costs and benefits. But now that I've changed my mind about this assessment, I'm inclined to kick them out (Russia). He said.
Speaking on the Ukraine crisis at the istanbul mosque export on Feb. 25, Turkish President Recep Erdogan said Turkey's position on NATO was very clear and that this should not turn into a mere condemnation and that NATO should take more decisive measures.
Erdogan said: "Unfortunately, the EU and all Western countries have not shown a serious and firm position at the moment. They made a large number of recommendations to Ukraine but did not take any measures. Today's NATO summit should consult on what initiatives to take. The West, which has made a large number of proposals so far, continues to make proposals. ”
On the evacuation of Turks living in Ukraine, Erdogan said: "Air transport is not safe, so the evacuation work is carried out by land. Our embassies and consulates general are ready to take all measures. ”
Earlier, Erdogan proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin during telephone talks that turkey does not recognize steps that violate Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and pointed out that it is important to reach conclusions on the basis of the Minsk Agreement.
Kiev asked Ankara on the 24th to prevent Russian warships from entering the Black Sea, but Ankara did not immediately respond to Kiev's request.
People taking refuge in Kiev subway stations
President Zelenskiy insisted that he was listed as the number one target of the invading Russian army, but he would remain in Kiev. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson revealed earlier on the 25th that Zelenskiy attended a meeting of EU leaders through video, and the place he was in at the time seemed to be a bunker.
After the Kiev air defense siren sounded early in the morning of the 25th, guests of a hotel in the city center were ushered into a temporary air defense facility in the basement, which had mattresses and bottled drinking water piled together. Temporary waiters, served by local university students, brought tea and biscuits to the guests. There are also some people who run to the yard to smoke or breathe in the fresh air.
Zelenskiy said 137 "heroes" have now died for the country, including 10 soldiers. One of his advisers claimed that 400 Russian troops had been killed. Moscow did not publish the number of casualties. All published casualties could not be verified.
Fearing a Russian attack, thousands of Kiev residents all went underground on the evening of the 24th, resulting in a crowded Kiev subway station. People eat and chat in the subway station, and children play. People bring their own sleeping bags and even their pet dogs.
Residents who walked out of the subway station early in the morning of the 25th began to find that everything was very silent. There were sporadic vehicles on the streets, and teams of soldiers in action. The long queue in front of the gas station a day ago has disappeared.
Moscow claimed that Russian troops would not attack city targets. But Kiev Mayor Klitschko said a rocket hit a high-rise apartment in the city on the 25th and caused a fire. Meanwhile, a mayor of the eastern region of Oudong, controlled by pro-Russian separatists, accused Ukrainian government forces of hitting a school building with shells.
Russia's massive military strike on Ukraine has shaken global financial markets, with stocks plunging and oil prices soaring. Condemnation of Russia's military operations comes not only from the United States and Europe, but also from countries like South Korea and Australia. Many countries are involved in the sanctions against Moscow or are in the process of developing new sanctions. Even Hungary, which is friendly to Russia, has begun to distance itself from Moscow.
President Biden will also hold a meeting with NATO leaders on the morning of the 25th, which the White House calls a "special online summit" to further discuss the situation in Ukraine.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, some current and former Western officials began to question President Putin's sanity. They argue that the change in Putin's behavior and the way he talks about the crisis suggests that something has changed, making the Russian leader even more dangerous.
U.S. President Joe Biden described Putin's speech acknowledging Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states as "eccentric" and "distorted."
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken called Putin's speech "deeply disturbing."
Putin declared war on Ukraine on the 24th
Garland Arrode, the former French ambassador to the United States, even said on Twitter that Putin's speech was "really unbelievable" and wondered if the Russian president was caught up in "paranoid delirium in a parallel universe." Other observers called Putin "insane" and "detached from reality."
However, this claim that Putin may have been divorced from reality stands in stark contrast to previous public and secret intelligence assessments of the long-ruling Russian supreme leader. These assessments suggest that Mr. Putin, 69, is ruthless, cunning, dangerous and adventurous.
William Burns, the CIA director, told members of Congress last February before receiving confirmation from the Senate, "Most of my gray hair comes from years of experience working in Russia, especially when dealing with Russia under Putin." ”
Putin spent his early career as an overseas agent of the KGB of the former Soviet secret police and retired in 1990 with the rank of lieutenant colonel. He later turned to politics, becoming head of Russia's internal security service, the Federal Security Service, in 1998.
Just two years later, Putin was elected president. Since then, he has been president of Russia, but not the prime minister of the Russian Federation for 4 years from 2008 to 2012.
Burns said, "A Russia that underestimates Putin is always wrong." ”
Former U.S. intelligence officials also thought it would be a huge miscalculation to see the Russian leader as a lunatic. "There is no indication that Putin has been nothing more than a ruthless and calculating KGB agent." Retired secret agent and former CIA station chief Daniel Hoffman said.
Hoffman said, "I don't think he's made any mistakes yet." He was referring to the Kremlin's successful military adventures in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and Syria.
Hoffman and other former U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin, inspired by these results, has seen the state of the world and found an opportunity to turn his long-cherished wish into reality.
Mark Kelton, former deputy director of the CIA's National Counterintelligence Covert Operations Division, said: "Putin never hides his views. "What has changed is putin's feelings, and he now has the ability to fulfill his desire to bring those Ukrainian regions that were not occupied in 2014 under Russian control." ”
Specifically, former intelligence officials believe that because of domestic political divisions and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, Putin may see "America's weakness" as a sign that neither Washington nor its Western allies are willing to deal with foreign conflicts.
Some Russian observers say the convergence of trends may even give the former KGB lieutenant colonel a little extra confidence.
Molly McChue, the president of Georgia and a former adviser to the National Security Council, said: "The Putin I saw was exactly the same Putin I expected to see." "He wants to fight for power and legacy for his vision and russia's."
"He's more certain that there won't be a price he can't afford," she said. He was more certain that there was no will to stop him. ”
But not everyone is convinced that the Putin that has appeared on television in recent days is the same As the Putin of the past.
John Silver, who once ran the CIA's intelligence work in Russia, said: "I was amazed by his roundabout and angry speech. I always thought he was well informed. He had been a KGB official with world-class intelligence agencies and certainly knew that neither Ukraine nor the United States had plans to invade. ”
Before russia invaded Ukraine, Sever said: "It sounds like he really believes these nonsense." ”
Map of the Russian offensive against Ukraine
Other Russian experts agree that Putin has changed. "The difference this time is the ominous tone and the anger that can barely be concealed." Sewa Gunitsky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said: "It was a threatening, not motivating, speech. ”
He told reporters: "He changed his posture and facial expressions to make himself sound more threatening. ”
According to some experts, this could indicate a shift in Putin's behavior, which could have wide-ranging implications. "Putin seems increasingly isolated from everyone except his inner circle, who are members of the security sector with radical and paranoid views." Gunitzki said.
David Sacconey, a political scientist at Georgetown University in the United States, also agrees. "This happens to a lot of powerful leaders," he said, "and they don't believe a lot of other ideas anymore." They tightened. They become a little cautious in allowing different points of view to enter their calculations. ”
Another possibility, some former intelligence officials see, is that Mr. Putin is frustrated despite his careful planning and confidence. "Although Putin has triggered a crisis, some of the reactions in the West have not occurred as he expected." Paul Piller, a former senior CIA agent who currently teaches at Georgetown University, said. "It's enough to make anyone sound pretty crazy and extreme, even if his brain is still running at full speed."
Others argue that Putin's actions may have been deliberate.
"If people in the West start thinking putin is a bit crazy, it could be a strategic advantage," Piller said, "and that image might get Western leaders to make enough concessions to start ending the crisis on terms acceptable to Russia because they're afraid of what this guy who is considered crazy is going to do next." ”
Former French ambassador Michel Duclos had another say about the war in Ukraine, saying: "Russia wants to see turmoil in Europe because force is its trump card. Whatever european illusions, Russia has never wanted a new security order. Putin has long believed that confrontation with the West is his best option. ”