Johnson decided to "coexist with the virus", why is the UK eager to lift the epidemic prevention restrictions?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Huiyin Intern District Yiqi reported that this time, the United Kingdom really has to give up the epidemic prevention restrictions.

On February 21, local time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that from February 24, all epidemic prevention and control measures in England will be lifted in stages and the "coexistence with the new crown" plan will be implemented. Specific measures of the plan include that patients who test positive for COVID-19 will not need to self-isolate, and that from April 1, the government will no longer provide free rapid testing to the public. Johnson said it was time for the UK to "shift from government restrictions to personal responsibility".

Long before Johnson announced the plan, several of his health consultants believed the plan was risky. Especially the day before the decision was announced, Queen Elizabeth II tested positive for COVID-19. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chairman of the Board of Governors of the British Medical Association, said Johnson's decision to lift the lockdown was clearly not guided by data and had not been consulted with healthcare professionals.

Ding Chun, director of the European Studies Center of Fudan University, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that Johnson's choice to lift the epidemic prevention restrictions now is due to the long-term pressure of the economy and society, the people's need to restore life and the long-term recognition of the new crown, and it is also based on the low mortality rate caused by the Aumechjong variant. ”

In addition to the epidemic, the economy has become another focus of attention. Recently released UK economic data shows that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.5% in 2021, the strongest growth since the Second World War. However, while lifting the epidemic prevention measures, the BRITISH economy will also face new uncertainties.

The Queen of England is infected

The news that the 95-year-old Queen of the United Kingdom has been diagnosed with the new crown has once again aroused the attention of the outside world about the epidemic in the United Kingdom.

On February 20, Buckingham Palace in the United Kingdom announced that Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom tested positive for COVID-19. According to the current epidemic prevention regulations in the United Kingdom, the longest-reigning monarch in the United Kingdom will be quarantined for at least 5 days, and will not end the quarantine until he tests negative for 2 consecutive days. Buckingham Palace said in a statement that the Queen had only "mild cold-like symptoms" and had received 3 doses of covid-19 vaccination and was expected to continue to perform some "lighter official duties" in the coming week.

Although the Queen's illness is mild, her epidemic is a constant reminder that the epidemic in the UK has not stopped. In this case, Johnson still insisted on implementing the "coexistence with the new crown" plan. On February 21, local time, Johnson said before the cabinet meeting: "After our country has experienced the most difficult period in history, today will be a proud moment – we need to start learning to live with the new crown." ”

Even so, there are still questions about whether the Queen's diagnosis will affect the execution of Johnson's "unblocking" plan. In this regard, Ding Chun told reporters that although there will be some voices opposing the deregulation in the United Kingdom, it will most likely not constitute a great opposition.

Zhang Bei, an assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, also held a similar view in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, believing that at this stage, only a small number of people in british political circles advocate adhering to epidemic prevention measures, and there are multiple factors behind Johnson's lifting of epidemic prevention measures, "For the ruling Conservative Party, lifting epidemic prevention measures has become an important policy." At the same time, this has become an important area for ordinary members of the party to put pressure on Prime Minister Johnson. ”

Zhang Bei told reporters that Johnson is under great pressure because of the "party door" scandal, and he must have measures to ease his relationship with ordinary members of the party, and it is "opportune" to lift the epidemic prevention measures at this time.

In addition, Zhang Bei believes that the general desire of the British people to lift the epidemic prevention restrictions is related to their understanding of the new crown epidemic. "The British people have always felt that the new crown epidemic will develop towards 'influenza', and from the original Delta to the current Olmikron variant, the local people generally believe that the danger is gradually decreasing, although there are still many risks in the epidemic."

For now, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the epidemic in the UK. As of February 20, the average seven-day average single-day new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK have dropped to less than 43,000, down from the peak of about 183,000 on January 5. However, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, as of February 21, local time, there have been more than 18.7 million confirmed cases in the United Kingdom, with a cumulative death rate of more than 160,000. Data show that the COVID-19 mortality rate in the UK is 6% higher than the EU average.

Because of many uncontrollable risk factors, Johnson's "unblocking" proposal has attracted opposition from some health experts.

Dr. Chander Nagpaul, President of the Board of Governors of the British Medical Association. Chaand Nagpaul said the infection rate needed to be further reduced before the restrictions could be relaxed, bluntly saying that "the government is trying to pretend that the epidemic does not exist in daily life", while suggesting that the British government should stick to the original plan and keep the epidemic restriction rules until the end of March.

The UK economy is under enormous pressure

At the time of "unsealing", economic recovery has become a barrier that Britain cannot avoid.

Looking at the overall data, the UK achieved a bottoming out rally in 2021. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) noted that among the Group of Seven (G7), the UK had the largest economic contraction in 2020, with a negative growth rate of 9.4%, but in 2021, the UK's economic growth rate was also the largest, with the annual growth rate increasing to 7.5%. While the overall economy rebounded more broadly, the momentum of quarterly growth slowed markedly.

The data shows that in December 2021, the UK's GDP contracted in the fourth quarter of 2021 due to a new outbreak caused by the Opichron variant, down 0.2% month-on-month, although it fell 0.5% better than market expectations, but it was the largest decline since January 2021.

As for the reason for the economic contraction in the fourth quarter, Darren Morgan, director of the Department of Economic Statistics at the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this was due to the blow of the Omiljung epidemic, of which the retail and hospitality industries were the most affected.

It is understood that retailers have been affected by the sharp decline in passenger flow due to the restrictions imposed by the government, and the service reception places have also cancelled orders due to the epidemic before Christmas. "The UK is not like Germany, which has a stable industrial system, it is an economy that is derelict to virtual." Zhang Bei told reporters that under the epidemic, the structural problems of the British economy will be more significant.

In fact, the current factors affecting the UK economy are not only the epidemic. Samuel Turms, an economist at the Pantheon Macroeconomic Research Company, also pointed out that the continued poor performance of the British economy cannot be blamed solely on the COVID-19 epidemic, and "exports are clearly a serious laggard".

According to the latest data from IHS Markit and the Chartered Purchasing and Supply Association (Cips), supply chain disruptions and staff shortages hampered the UK economy in December, with the dual pressures of Brexit and the pandemic leading to a decline in UK manufacturers' exports.

"Due to geography, the UK's supply chain system has limited room for maneuver and in extreme cases is not as good as the recovery of continental Europe." Wei Hongxu, a researcher at Anbang Think Tank, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the impact of the epidemic and Brexit is difficult to say which is lighter or heavier, but obviously, the superposition of the two major factors has pushed up British inflation and dragged down the British economy.

In addition, it is worth noting that the end of the Brexit transition period has affected the trade relations between many UK businesses and EU businesses. Trade data from the UK's Office for National Statistics shows that imports from non-EU countries surpassed imports from EU economies for the first time in 2021 since 1997 was recorded. Iain Begg, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the London School of Economics, said that after Brexit, the UK's trade with the European continent was significantly damaged, and it was not in sync with the trade situation between the UK and the rest of the world.

As a result, the outlook for a UK economic recovery is not optimistic. Global trade credit insurer Euler Hermes has found that new trade restrictions after leaving the EU and the impact of the pandemic mean the UK will be the slowest to recover exports among Europe's major economies.

Given the multiple economic pressures currently facing the UK, even if the lockdown is "lifted", it is estimated that it will be difficult to fully restore the pre-epidemic economic situation. Wei Hongxu told reporters that he predicted that the economic growth after the lifting of the Lockdown in the UK is not optimistic, "Although short-term service consumption will recover and rebound, the sequelae of Brexit, such as supply chain problems, will still plague the UK." He said that after that, the UK will continue to face the dilemma of controlling inflation and maintaining growth.

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