Hong Kong's fifth round of COVID-19 is at its worst in two years, what are the reasons for this situation?
The data shows that the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong is still continuing and increasing rapidly. As of the 19th, the number of confirmed patients in Hong Kong in February has exceeded 32,000, and It is urgent for Hong Kong to fight the epidemic and prevent the epidemic. Judging from the development of this round of epidemic situation, since February 4, the number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong has begun to rise sharply, and the upper limit of the maximum number of confirmed cases in a single day has been continuously refreshed. In the last seven days (13-19), Hong Kong has reported an average of more than 3,000 confirmed cases per day.
The Centre for Health Protection (hereinafter referred to as the "Centre for Protection") of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government reported on the 19th that there were 6,063 new confirmed cases of COVID-19, of which 4 were imported cases and more than 7,400 were preliminarily confirmed.
Jin Dongyan, a professor at the School of Biomedical Sciences of the University of Hong Kong and an expert in virology, told CBN that there are still many problems facing the fifth round of the epidemic in Hong Kong, including nucleic acid testing, treatment and other issues. Now that the whole chain of epidemic prevention in Hong Kong has sounded the alarm bell, Hong Kong will continue to prevent and fight the epidemic for a long time.
The fifth round of the epidemic may have originated in many places
According to Hong Kong's previous reports, the source of infection in this round of the epidemic may be more than one.
According to Hong Kong's monitoring statistics on large groups with new positive tests in the past four weeks, the Silka Seaview Hotel/East Man Lou/Yi Kwai Lou related groups in Hong Kong are a major source of this outbreak.
According to the circulation information, the earliest infected person in the group was a 43-year-old Pakistani housewife who was under compulsory quarantine at Silka Seaview Hotel in Yau Ma Tei, who arrived in Hong Kong on December 20 and tested positive for nucleic acid on January 16. She left the hotel on 10 January and returned to her apartment in Dong Man Lou, Tai Hang East Village, where she transmitted the virus to her husband. Her husband went to the Yi Kui Lou collection station on January 13 to collect supplies, during which time he had contact with a female cleaner, who was initially diagnosed on the 21st.
The Protection Centre reviewed the records and found that when the housewife checked into the quarantine hotel, the occupant of the adjacent room was a 71-year-old Nepalese man who had been diagnosed earlier. The Centre for Protection announced the progress of the investigation, stating that there were six positive cases involving the hotel. Experts believe that air flow in hotel rooms and corridors can lead to the spread of the virus to another room.
It is understood that Yi Kwai Lou is located in one of the largest public housing villages in Hong Kong, Kwai Chung Village, and the highly spreadable Omicron has flowed into the community.
At a public hospital in Hong Kong on Feb. 18, emergency room staff are at work. Xinhua News Agency photo
At the same time, hong Kong has also successively emerged a chain of transmission that has failed to find the source.
The Secretary for Food and Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Mr Chan Siu-chiu, said in a document on January 30 that there are two clusters of infection that deserve attention: first, the transmission of the Delta variant virus strain caused by imported hamsters is still occurring, and more than 20 cases have been reported in the Choi Wan Village Chang Bo Lou Group; second, the cases caused by quarantine hotels and their families have infected cleaning workers and super-spread Kwai Chung Village, which has been confirmed by the first confirmed case on January 19, and more than 400 cases have been recorded in Kwai Chung Village so far. Some of the confirmed persons working in cleaning and security work were found to have not been vaccinated.
Chen Zhaoshi pointed out in the article that there are still cases with unknown origin in Hong Kong every day, and each case with an unknown source can also be said to be a hidden chain of transmission, that is, there are dozens of invisible transmission chains in the community, and other citizens will be infected at any time. In addition, Hong Kong has been using the sewage sample monitoring method to detect positive or infected cases in sites and buildings as early as possible. Over the past week, the EPD has detected positive sewage samples through mobile and non-targeted sewage monitoring, illustrating that there are still many chains of transmission in the community.
Entering February, the number of infections in Hong Kong is still running at a high level. Since February, the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong has confirmed more than 32,000 cases.
According to the positive case chart, the surge in infections began around February 4 and exceeded 1,000 cases on February 9.
Photo credit: Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, HKSAR Government
On the 9th, Zhang Zhujun, director of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Protection Center, said at the briefing that many cases involved family groups, and patients participated in gatherings around the Lunar New Year, and many groups of more than 10 to 20 people were confirmed. More than half of the new cases are unknown, and the patients are mostly housewives, elderly or retirees, who only go to shopping malls and street markets every day, and the cases are not related to each other.
At the same time, Zhang Zhujun revealed that many of the hospitals have elderly and employees infected with the epidemic, including Tai Kok Tsui Shin Ying Nursing Home, Sha Tin Li Xian Hui Wang Shao Qing Nursing Home, Sham Shui Po Warm Nursing Home, Sham Shui Po Ren Chai Hospital Li Wei Shao Qi An Old People's Home, and Ngau Tau Kok Fu Kang Hui Lehua Adult Training Center. "Since the fifth wave of the epidemic, there have been small outbreaks in more than ten homes for the elderly or people with disabilities, which is worrying, and the public should be vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as possible, especially the elderly."
It is worth noting that the officially defined fifth wave of the epidemic began earlier. The earliest local case of Omicron in Hong Kong can be traced back to the local crew members returning from abroad in December 2021. Prior to this, the Hong Kong government has repeatedly said that the Omicron mutant virus strain is menacing, and the pressure on Hong Kong's "foreign defense import" is increasing.
On 31 December 2021, Lam Man Kin, Director of Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government, said at a briefing that the Omicron variant virus strain has a strong transmissibility, patients often have no signs of illness, and Hong Kong may already be at the critical point of the fifth wave of the epidemic.
Why the dramatic upgrade?
The number of confirmed cases in the fifth round of the epidemic in Hong Kong has exceeded the sum of the previous confirmed numbers, and Hong Kong is facing the most severe epidemic test. Why is the number of confirmed cases of this outbreak in Hong Kong the highest since the outbreak?
In an interview with CBN, Jin Dongyan said that the virus currently circulating in Hong Kong (Aomi Kerong BA.2 branch) is the most contagious. In the past two years, the outbreak of the epidemic has survived many tests in Hong Kong. After the first case was confirmed, the virus spread and spread rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of new people.
Liu Muyun, a special researcher of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute and director of the National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Individualized Cell Therapy Technology, told First Finance and Economics that the first is the unified understanding of the seriousness of the epidemic, Hong Kong is an international city, the composition of personnel is diversified, so it is difficult to establish a unified understanding of the epidemic cognition, so it is difficult to replicate in Hong Kong with effective "dynamic zeroing" and timely "traceability" in the mainland; second, the detection capacity is insufficient, and asymptomatic patients cannot be quickly diagnosed. The ability to receive medical treatment is limited, encouraging patients with mild diseases to observe at home; third, the implementation of prevention and control measures is weak, Hong Kong's safe travel APP does not require real-name registration, and the specific implementation is uneven, so it is impossible to effectively and quickly lock in infectious disease cases and transmission chains, so as to achieve accurate prevention and control.
It is worth noting that among the infected people in this round of epidemic in Hong Kong, especially the seriously ill patients, the proportion of the elderly is relatively high. Since the death of a covid-19 infection in Hong Kong on 8 February, most of the new deaths have been among the elderly over the age of 70 and have not been vaccinated.
Up to now, the vaccination rate of elderly aged 60 to 69 in Hong Kong has exceeded 80% and that of elderly people aged 70 to 79 has exceeded 80%, but the vaccination rate of elderly people aged 80 and over has not exceeded half of the population.
For the next epidemic prevention work, Jin Dongyan told First Finance and Economics that the first is to alleviate the anxiety of Hong Kong people, especially the psychological counseling and support of positive patients with new crown; the second is to provide timely treatment for patients with severe diseases, and patients with mild diseases should self-isolate under the condition of limited government resources, no longer spread the virus, and minimize contact with people; the third is to mobilize a large number of professionally trained private professional doctors in Hong Kong to conduct remote diagnosis for mild and asymptomatic patients; fourth, in view of the current limited nucleic acid testing capabilities. Those who need nucleic acid testing the most should be given priority and isolated as soon as possible.
How to "Dynamically Zero"
Since the outbreak of the fifth wave of the epidemic, Carrie Lam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, has repeatedly emphasized the epidemic prevention strategy of "adhering to dynamic clearance".
However, it is difficult to achieve "dynamic zeroing". On 15 February, before attending the Executive Council, Carrie Lam told the media that the isolation, treatment facilities and supporting facilities were insufficient, and that the authorities were doing their best to increase the number of isolation facilities, convert the completed PRH estates into isolation facilities, and would look for more entire hotels for isolation purposes.
On the 18th, the first isolation hotel began to operate for those diagnosed with mild symptoms or no signs of new pneumonia to stay in isolation. The HONG KONG SAR Government earlier identified about 4,400 hotel rooms for inclusion in the Community Quarantine Facility Hotel Plan, four of which, namely Dorsett Tsuen Wan, iclub Ma Tau Wai Hotel, iclub Fortress Hill Hotel and Regal Oriental Hotel, will operate this week.
Second, official data show that the COVID-19 vaccination rate in Hong Kong is not high, and more than one million citizens still do not receive the first dose of the vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccination programme led by the HKSAR Government was launched at the end of February 2021, and by the end of January 2022, about 5.3 million Hong Kong citizens, accounting for about 79% of the eligible population, had received the first dose of the vaccine, and only more than 30% of the elderly over the age of 80 had been vaccinated.
Therefore, in recent days, the Hong Kong SAR government has been increasing the number of vaccination centers, and the "vaccine pass" will be fully implemented on the 24th of this month. The Secretary for civil service of the Hong Kong SAR government, Mr Nie Tak-kuen, said that the government has made every effort to increase the speed of vaccination and strive to achieve a 90% vaccination rate in the shortest possible time.
At the same time, mainland support forces have successively come to Hong Kong. On the afternoon of the 17th, the mainland support Hong Kong anti-epidemic epidemiology expert group arrived in Hong Kong to carry out work, fully supporting Hong Kong in tracing the source of the virus, analysis of the epidemic and risk analysis, etc., to help Hong Kong stabilize the epidemic as soon as possible. The expert group of 4 people entered the port through the Shenzhen Bay Port in the afternoon, accompanied by 8 testing personnel, 2 mobile nucleic acid testing trucks and 1 material transport support vehicle to support the fight against the epidemic.
The Mainland's expert group supporting Hong Kong's anti-epidemic epidemiology expert group arrived in Hong Kong on the afternoon of the 17th to carry out its work. Xinhua News Agency photo
Sun Yang, deputy director of the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention, said that the experts sent to Hong Kong have participated in the handling of cluster epidemics in the mainland for many times, and their professional quality is excellent and their experience is very rich. The expert group will learn from the experience of the mainland in handling the epidemic, conduct in-depth analysis and study of the current epidemic situation in Hong Kong, and put forward practical and feasible epidemic prevention and control measures in a targeted manner.
Carrie Lam said that in accordance with the requirements of the central authorities, the SAR government will regard the fight against the epidemic as an overriding task, mobilize all available manpower and resources, and take all measures to ensure the safety and health of Hong Kong citizens and ensure the stability of Hong Kong's overall situation.
Recently, the epidemic situation in Hong Kong is grim, the central government set up a special class for the mainland to support Hong Kong's fight against the epidemic, take immediate action according to the specific needs put forward by the SAR government, and actively implement various anti-epidemic measures to aid Hong Kong.
Liu Muyun also said, "The two places work together to combine the effective epidemic prevention methods and strategies in the mainland with the epidemic transmission and social and cultural characteristics of Hong Kong, and establish a three-level system of prevention and control, tracking, isolation and treatment as soon as possible, with external prevention of import and internal prevention of transmission, I believe that the sudden curve of the epidemic can be quickly flattened and enter a stable period." ”