Has the price limit in the Guangzhou property market been loosened? Li Yujia: Recently, the pressure to strictly control prices has declined

On February 10, there is market news that the price limit policy for first-hand houses in Guangzhou has recently been relaxed, and in 2022, the relevant departments intend to adopt a "graded filing" policy for just need and luxury housing projects, and the price limit policy for luxury houses will be relaxed.

In this regard, the Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that Guangzhou has always implemented strict price guidance, but the filing price of each property is considered as a whole according to the surrounding real estate situation, and dynamic price guidance is implemented, and a red line is not set according to the price. The filing price of each property will fluctuate in each period, and the current price limit policy has not been relaxed.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, commented:

1. The price guidance of new houses has become a rule

On April 2, 2021, Guangzhou's New Deal said it would guide the price of new homes. The revision of the new version of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Housing Transactions in Guangzhou issued on November 18 proposes that the sales price of commercial housing should be guided by the competent department of housing and urban and rural construction

2. Price guidance has a certain flexibility

According to Guangzhou's price guidance policy, the price of the new push plate of the old project shall not exceed the price of the same unit type in the previous period. The filing price of the new batch project shall refer to the average price of the surrounding competitors or the same quality projects in the first quarter of the online signature, and the specific rules shall be implemented in each district. Many areas are provided with reference prices according to the street. If there is no new disk in the surrounding area, you can only refer to the price of the second-hand house.

Therefore, price control is dynamic, and there is nothing wrong with the housing and construction bureau's statement due to the district policy. Another aspect means that there is a certain degree of operational flexibility and space.

3. The pressure to strictly control prices has declined recently

According to the 70-city house price index, the prices of new and second-hand houses in Guangzhou have been declining for several months, and the pricing of new houses has become rational accordingly. For the hot spots in Nansha and Huangpu, the rise in second-hand house prices and the speculation of foreign investors have weakened the logic of driving the price of new houses.

All this means that at the beginning of the new year, the pressure on house price control is smaller and smaller.

4. The policy tone is more subtle

Although the state has always stressed the need to maintain the continuous stability of regulatory policies, recently the state has placed more emphasis on the stability of the property market, the promotion of consumption, and the non-introduction of austerity policies. At the same time, various localities are also actively bailing out the industry, and small actions in third- and fourth-tier cities to loosen or even stimulate the property market continue to occur. The upper-level policies are more delicate, and the local government may reduce the control over house prices.

After all, falling house prices, or anticipating a fall, are not good for selling land and promoting housing consumption. The pressure to control the rise in house prices is decreasing.

5. Future housing prices and policy trends

The continuous decline in the prices of new and second-hand houses in Guangzhou, coupled with recent policy corrections, has placed more emphasis on promotion fees and stability. At the same time, in order to have a good harvest in the first round of land sales in the new year, objectively there is no need to control house prices as much as in the first three quarters of last year. Coupled with the regulation of housing prices, there is already a flexible operating space. As a result, the media coverage is not empty.

The follow-up house price trend, on the one hand, depends on whether the financial credit is further relaxed, on the other hand, it depends on whether the current policies of the local bailout industry will evolve into a bottom and rescue, and then the state will express its position. The long-term financial mechanism has begun to land, as long as the monetary level can be controlled, and the existing policies are continuously stable, there will be no obvious rebound.

This article originated from the financial world