International oil prices hit a new high in nearly six years The yield of commodity theme funds continues to dominate the screen

During the domestic Spring Festival holiday, international oil prices hit a new high since 2016 under many favorable circumstances, and in the past 7 days, they still stood above $90 / barrel. In this regard, a number of institutional people told the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to the dual support of supply and demand and geopolitical fundamentals, international oil prices hit a record high, driving a number of commodity futures prices to rise, in the short term, the good fundamentals have not changed, oil prices on energy and chemical commodities support will continue.

　　The reporter found that benefiting from the continuous strengthening of commodities, the income of related commodity theme funds in the A-share market also continued to rise, especially crude oil, energy and chemical and bean theme funds, which continued to dominate the income ranking after the Spring Festival and also occupied the forefront of the annual income ranking.

　　The logic of short-term rise in oil prices is still there

　　Since the beginning of the year, international commodities have fluctuated many times, especially during the domestic Spring Festival holiday, Brent crude oil futures price stood at the $90 / barrel mark in one fell swoop, creating a record high since 2016, which led to a number of commodity futures prices rising steadily, such as natural gas, LPG and other varieties.

　　Xiao Mi, deputy director of the research department of Harvest Fund and director of large-cycle research, told the Securities Daily reporter that international oil prices continued to rise, breaking through the $90 / barrel mark during the Spring Festival holiday, in the short term, there are more influencing factors, in addition to supply and demand factors, geopolitical impact is also very large; short-term supply and demand mismatch will be good for the energy and chemical sector. But in the medium and long term, in the context of electrification, the oil price center is gradually declining, and the long-term center should be below the $50/barrel mark.

　　Yu Xuefei, general manager of the Research and Consulting Department of Yangtze River Futures, told the Securities Daily reporter that there are many factors affecting the fundamentals of crude oil prices, in the context of the global energy crisis, local geopolitics are heating up, coupled with the domestic "moderately advanced infrastructure" and "affordable housing financial support" policy is expected to increase demand, the future will further support the non-ferrous and black industrial chain.

　　"The international oil price can break through the $90 / barrel mark, on the one hand, the supply and demand fundamentals are good, on the other hand, we must also see that inventories are at a historical low." Wang Haozheng, a researcher at Yangtze River Futures, told reporters that the current crude oil inventory has been lower than the same period in the past 5 years, and there is a continued downward trend, and supply and demand are strong in the face of price support. In the short term, a sharp decline in oil prices may still be difficult to achieve, and it is expected that the support of oil prices for energy commodities will continue.

　　Related theme fund yield domination screen

　　On the one hand, the commodity market shows more investment opportunities, and on the other hand, the theme fund that uses commodities as the target also has obvious returns. According to the wind statistics of the "Securities Daily" reporter, among the 9334 funds in the whole market, whether it is from the cycle statistics of the past week or the past month and the year, the return of commodity theme funds continues to rank high, especially crude oil and energy and chemical commodity funds.

　　WIND data shows that as of February 10, in the market-wide annual revenue ranking, GF Dow Jones U.S. Oil A, Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF, Harvest Crude Oil, E Fangda Crude Oil A and so on ranked among the top ten. In the fund income ranking of the whole market in the past week, 9 of the top 10 products are commodity theme funds, and Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF, Cathay Pacific CSI Coal ETF, Fuguo CSI Coal A, Huitian Fu CSI Energy ETF, GF CSI All-Index Energy ETF, etc. are among them. In the revenue ranking in the past month, Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy and Chemical Futures ETF, Harvest Crude Oil, E Fangda Crude Oil A, Southern Crude Oil A and so on ranked in the top ten.

　　Relevant people of Huaxia Fund told the "Securities Daily" reporter that during the Spring Festival holiday, the three leading commodity varieties of crude oil, gold and copper in the international commodity market have risen, and the domestic commodity futures market has also seen a certain supplementary rise after the holiday, while the higher futures prices of beans and crude oil are supported by the logic of production reduction. "Due to the current damage to soybean production in South America and the logic of improving U.S. soybean exports will continue, the recent futures prices of U.S. beans and soybean meal may still be relatively strong."

　　Guangfa Dao Jones Oil Index (QDII) fund manager Ye Shuai told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the recent international crude oil prices began to go out of the adverse effects of the overseas epidemic, superimposed supply side disturbances, under the influence of geopolitical conflicts in some oil-producing areas, the global market for crude oil supply concerns intensified, and the Fed interest rate hike is expected to inhibit oil prices The effect is limited, and international oil prices hit a record high during the Spring Festival. The factors affecting international oil prices in the future include three aspects: one is whether the overseas epidemic has hindered the recovery process of oil demand; the other is the short-term premium driven by the slowdown in "OPEC+" production growth; and the third is whether the risk of geopolitical conflict in some oil-producing areas has intensified.

　　For the investment opportunities in 2022, Xiao Mi believes that equity assets will play a key role in 2022, specifically optimistic about low-valued and pro-cyclical high-quality companies; at the same time, long-term optimism about high-quality companies in high-end manufacturing, new energy, mandatory consumption and technology sectors.

　　Huaxia Fund believes that because it is positively related to economic recovery, there may still be investment opportunities for globally priced commodities. At the same time, it should also be noted that the tightening of global marginal liquidity will also constrain the rise in commodity prices, and investors should grasp the volatility and potential risks of different commodity prices, as well as make reasonable decisions about the proportion of investment commodity futures ETF funds in personal assets.