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Today, I saw a data and was greatly encouraged, that is: in 2021, the added value of China's manufacturing industry as a proportion of GDP reached 27.4%; up from 26.18% in 2020, an increase of 1.22 percentage points.
Do not underestimate this 1.22 percentage points, although the increase is not high, but it is the first time since 2011 that the added value of China's manufacturing industry has risen as a proportion of GDP.
In 2011, China's manufacturing industry accounted for 32.06% of GDP, and then declined year after year, and by 2020, it has fallen to 26.18%, the same as the proportion of South Korea; but obviously our overall level of manufacturing and per capita GDP are far from reaching the level of South Korea.
Before the people get rich, they first 'de-industrialize', which is a very dangerous signal.
Of course, with the rapid development of a country's economy, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP declines, which is an objective law; but if the decline is too fast, before the overall upgrading of manufacturing to high-end manufacturing, it has completed deindustrialization, then Barbie Q.
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The reason is also very simple: if a country can successfully upgrade to high-end manufacturing before the "manufacturing share of GDP falls below 20%", then the country can use the high profits and high technology of high-end manufacturing to build its supporting high-tech industries and other service industries.
For example, it is precisely because the United States has a strong "computer manufacturing industry" and "chip manufacturing industry" that it will derive the IT Internet industry that supports and serves it, and eventually trigger the third industrial revolution.
Similarly, it is precisely because of advanced manufacturing (aerospace, automobiles, engines, top materials, etc.) in Europe and the United States that various industrial software for service will be born, such as drawing design CAD, chip circuit design EDA, 3D rendering design 3DS Max and so on.
As long as the upgrade to high-end manufacturing is successful, the employment of a country will not decrease as the proportion of manufacturing industry decreases, and the average wage of jobs will climb.
The entire national income will continue to grow, and the national economy will enter a virtuous circle.
But if the upgrade to high-end manufacturing fails, then the employment of a country will decrease rapidly as the proportion of manufacturing industry decreases.
This is not the worst, the worst is that the number of workers does not change, and the number of jobs plummets; this will naturally trigger an oversupply in the labor market, and companies will inevitably reduce wages and recruit people.
Anyway, you don't do it, some people do it.
In this way, the entire national economy will fall into a vicious circle of "wage stagnation or decline" and "high unemployment".
This cycle has a thunderous scientific name called: the middle-income trap.
Therefore, in order not to fall into the "middle-income trap", a country must race against the "declining proportion of manufacturing" and upgrade successfully before the critical point.
Therefore, in 2021, the news that China's manufacturing industry will rise for the first time in 10 years is exciting.
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In 2021, the proportion of China's manufacturing industry in GDP, for the first time in 10 years, rose for the first time, there are roughly three reasons:
First, in 2021, Europe and the United States will fall into the epidemic and cannot extricate themselves, and the local manufacturing industry has limited recovery capacity.
This situation not only delayed the plans of European and American multinational companies to prepare to transfer some of their low-end production lines out of China, but also stimulated the crazy growth of China's export manufacturing industry, especially low-end manufacturing:
In 2021, China's exports of goods were 21.73 trillion yuan, up 21.2% year-on-year.
Second, in 2021, China's service industry (tertiary industry), due to the epidemic and regulatory reasons, the growth slowed down.
Industries such as culture, tourism, catering, etc., have not yet recovered to pre-epidemic levels due to crowd flow and traffic restrictions; while finance, Internet, education and training industries, because of supervision, have ended the history of crazy expansion.
The growth rate of the tertiary industry has slowed down, which in turn has increased the proportion of manufacturing in the overall GDP.
Nevertheless, in 2021, the added value of China's service industry still reached 60.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year; an average growth of 5% in 2020-2021.
Under the background of limited cultural tourism and controlled financial Internet, China's service industry can still achieve growth, and the biggest contributor belongs to the explosive growth of "high-tech service industry".
For example, in 2021, China's chip design industry achieved sales of 415 billion yuan, up 36% from 2020.
Another example: In 2021, China's industrial software industry serving various manufacturing industries achieved revenue of 241.4 billion yuan, up 24.8% from 2020.
That is to say, although the overall growth rate of China's tertiary industry will slow down in 2021, there will be a great improvement in quality.
Therefore, we can't just stare at entertainment, catering, education and training, and financial Internet, and feel that these are the service industries.
In fact, chip design, industrial software, artificial intelligence research and development, autonomous driving and Industry 4.0, these are also the service industry, and the strong growth of these service industries is the core direction of the development of our service industry.
As the mainstream public opinion said last year: don't just stare at the few bundles of cabbage of the people, the sea of stars of scientific and technological innovation is more exciting.
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The third reason: As we said earlier, a strong high-tech service industry must serve high-end manufacturing. Since we have noticed the fact that China's high-tech explosion growth in 2021 means that China's high-end manufacturing will also achieve explosive growth in 2021.
The same is true of the facts.
2021: The added value of China's advanced manufacturing industry (including 5G communication equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, medical equipment manufacturing, etc.) achieved a rapid growth rate of 18.2%, which is much higher than the average GDP growth rate of 8.1%, and also higher than the growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size (9.6%).
Also in 2021: China's auto exports have doubled to 2 million units, becoming the world's fifth-largest auto exporter, behind Germany, Japan, the United States and South Korea; the auto manufacturing industry, especially the electric vehicle manufacturing industry, has risen significantly.
At the same time, China's industrial robot production increased by 45% in 2021; chip production capacity increased by 33%...
Everything shows that China has made small achievements in industrial upgrading; the output value of China's high-end manufacturing is rising rapidly, and it is not a dream to become a high-end manufacturing power.
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Through the analysis of the above three factors, we can see that the "epidemic crisis" in the past two years is 'dangerous' and 'opportunity' for us.
The 'danger' is that the epidemic has hit our cultural tourism, catering and other industries, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of the national economy.
The 'machine' is: the epidemic has also caused European and American multinational enterprises to temporarily delay the plan to transfer some of China's low-end production lines to Southeast Asia and India; it has given us valuable time to transform high-end manufacturing and upgrade manufacturing.
This precious time has now lasted for two years, and may continue for another 1-3 years, I hope that we can take advantage of this precious opportunity to stop engaging in price wars and make every effort to upgrade to high-end manufacturing in terms of efficiency, technology and quality.
The era of high-end manufacturing in China may really come in 5-10 years.
Come on, made in China.