Cover news reporter Ma Mengfei
On February 10, the reporter learned from the 2021 logistics operation data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing that the total amount of social logistics in 2021 was 335.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year, and an average annual growth rate of 6.2% in two years. The scale of logistics demand reached a new high, and the growth rate of total social logistics returned to the average level of normal years.
Overall, in 2021, mainland logistics showed a solid recovery trend, the real economy continued to recover steadily, driving the rapid growth of logistics demand, and logistics achieved a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan". At the same time, the mainland express delivery industry has also entered the era of 100 billion, and the competitiveness of head enterprises has begun to improve. Wang Chikun, an independent economist and financial commentator, believes that the industry dividend period has passed, and the era of lying win no longer exists.
Rack-filled shipments
Increasing number of couriers
The scale of logistics demand has reached a new high The volume of express delivery business has exceeded 100 billion pieces for the first time
Judging from the data, in 2021, the scale of logistics demand reached a new high, and the growth rate of total social logistics returned to the average level of normal years. The total amount of social logistics in the whole year was 335.2 trillion yuan, which was 1.5 times that of the early stage of the "13th Five-Year Plan".
Judging from the trend during the year, due to the sporadic epidemic in the second half of the year and the high base in the same period of the previous year, the trend was high before and then low. The first quarter increased by 24.2% year-on-year, the first half of the year by 15.7%, and the first three quarters by 10.5%. From the composition point of view, the total logistics of industrial products is 299.6 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year.
In 2021, the total cost of social logistics was 16.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year. The ratio of total social logistics expenses to GDP was 14.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year. From the structural point of view, transportation costs of 9.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8%; storage costs of 5.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%; management expenses of 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2%.
At the same time, the total revenue of the logistics industry has achieved rapid growth, with the total income of the logistics industry reaching 11.9 trillion yuan in 2021, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year.
According to the data on the operation of the postal industry in 2021 previously released by the State Post Bureau, in 2021, despite the impact of the global epidemic, the cumulative business volume of express delivery service enterprises nationwide was still 108.3 billion pieces, an increase of 29.9% year-on-year; the cumulative business revenue was 1,033.23 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year.
"The strong reshuffle of China's express delivery industry will take place in the next 1 to 2 years." In the face of the increasing volume of express delivery business, express delivery expert Zhao Xiaomin judged this way.
The courier is delivering the express mail
Total social logistics in 2011-2021 (unit: 100 million yuan)
The competitiveness of the head enterprises has improved, and the performance forecast is mixed
In 2021, the construction of the logistics system will be steadily advanced, adapting to changes in market logistics demand, maintaining rapid growth in logistics supply services, and supporting the improvement of industrial chain and supply chain resilience.
Behind the eye-catching report card, the logistics industry has withstood multiple tests such as the severe international environment and the domestic epidemic, the enhancement of service capabilities, and the improvement of the competitiveness of head enterprises.
Recently, a number of A-share express delivery companies have released 2021 performance forecasts, which can be described as mixed.
SF Holdings issued a performance forecast, and expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be 4.2 billion to 4.4 billion yuan in 2021, down 40% to 43% year-on-year. In this regard, SF Holdings said that in order to cope with the high growth of parts and alleviate the bottleneck of production capacity, it has increased investment in network resources such as venues, equipment and transportation capacity.
YTO Express expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the whole year, an increase of 13.20% to 24.52% year-on-year. YTO Express said that the pre-increase in performance is mainly due to the increase in the unit price of services in the express delivery industry, the price competition has slowed down significantly, and it has gradually changed from price-driven to value-driven, and the industry price has continued to return to a reasonable level.
Compared with SF and Yuantong, Shentong and Debon have suffered losses.
Shentong Express expects a net loss of 840 million to 950 million yuan in 2021, and a net profit of 880 million to 970 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. Shentong believes that in addition to being affected by price competition, in the first three quarters of 2021, due to site relocation and project completion delays, the overall single volume throughput scale is limited, resulting in higher operating costs and lower capacity utilization rates of the company.
Deppon Express expects to achieve a year-on-year decrease of 67% to 87% in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021, and a year-on-year decrease of 176.04% to 229.56% in net profit and loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. Debon said that the overall prosperity of the macro environment has declined and the intensification of competition in the field of large-scale transportation has slowed down the company's revenue growth, and the annual oil price is at a high level, which adversely affects it.
Tidy up the courier
Experts: The industry dividend period has passed the era of lying win and winning no longer exists
"The scale of logistics demand has reached a new high and has entered a highly prosperous stage of the industry life cycle." Wang Chikun, an independent economist and financial commentator, said in an interview with the cover news reporter, but on the other hand, the logistics industry belongs to the supply without threshold, and under the continued investment and blessing of capital from all parties, the supply of the industry continues to increase, the supply is much greater than the demand speed, and the industry competition has entered a white-hot situation. "The industry dividend period has passed, and the era of lying win no longer exists."
Wang Chikun believes that under the dual internal volume of e-commerce + logistics, such as the launch of pre-shipment by logistics companies, it is the performance of e-commerce and logistics companies to hollow out their minds and fight for operations. In the process of fierce fighting, it will also push industry enterprises into an embarrassing situation, and under the influence of many factors, the operating performance, operating profits and market value of the secondary market will be reduced three times.
The advent of the 100 billion express era also indicates that China's express delivery industry will usher in great changes, and the leading "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet" in the express delivery industry has begun to upgrade from a price war to a value war.
"In order to compete for market initiative, companies began to use various scientific and technological means to improve the logistics distribution experience + reduce logistics costs." Wang Chikun said that such as big data + warehouse, intelligent robot sorting, etc., including ByteDance's e-commerce companies frequently invest in robot companies is such a reason.
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