A series of leading indicators release warmth The economic trend in the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations

Shanghai, 10 Feb (Xinhua) -- On 10 February, the Shanghai Securities News published an article entitled "A Series of Leading Indicators Release Warmth The Economic Trend in the First Quarter Is Expected to Exceed Expectations." The article said that the manufacturing PMI continued to expand, the logistics industry related index remained prosperous, and the electricity consumption in many places during the Spring Festival climbed... In the spring of the Year of the Tiger, a series of leading indicators released the "warmth" of China's economy.

"The Force of Rotation" measures economic temperatures

In Dongguan, Guangdong Province, after the resumption of work after the holiday, enterprises have been busy with production to catch orders. The person in charge of an export-oriented enterprise that produces components told the Shanghai Securities News reporter: "At present, there are sufficient orders for enterprises, and the sales growth this year may reach about 15%. ”

As the motor spins and the machine roars, the manufacturing "heat" rises. As a leading indicator of the economy, PMI is the first to send a positive signal of a smooth start to the economy.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1% in January, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and stabilized at more than 50% for three consecutive months. The purchase volume index, the new export order index, and the production and operation activity expectation index all rebounded month-on-month.

Zhang Liqun, a macro researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the PMI index remains on the boom-bust line, indicating that the economy continues to show a comprehensive recovery trend. The economy is facing triple pressure, and we should actively expand domestic demand and strive to consolidate the foundation for the comprehensive recovery of the economy.

In Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, Jingyang Marine Semiconductor Materials Co., Ltd. did not stop working, with a daily output of more than 2.6 million monocrystalline silicon wafers; in Huanggang, Hubei Province, Chenming Pulp and Paper Company produced at full capacity, producing more than 1,500 tons of pulp plates per day... In the Spring Festival just past, key enterprises in various places did not stop work or stop production, and strived to achieve a "good start" in the industrial economy.

A series of high-frequency data have shown that industrial production remains resilient. In January, the operating rate of blast furnaces exceeded 70%, and the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was still at a high level. According to the latest data from the China Steel Association, in late January, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.0136 million tons, up 1.32% month-on-month.

"The Power of Flow" Perceivs Economic Vitality

"This year I stayed in Beijing for the New Year, before the festival online shopping for a lot of New Year goods, my family also expressed my hometown food, recently busy every day to receive express delivery, dismantling express, not happy!" Xiao Chen, a post-90s whose hometown is in Shanxi, is the first time to celebrate the New Year at work, and she laments that she feels the "New Year's taste" in the express delivery.

According to monitoring data from the State Post Bureau, during this year's Spring Festival (January 31 to February 6), the postal express industry received and delivered a total of 749 million express parcels, an increase of 16% over last year's Spring Festival holiday.

Spring River plumbing, "flowing power" can be prophetic. Since the beginning of the year, logistics, electricity consumption and other related indicators have revealed a signal of stable and good economy.

According to the data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry in January was 51.1%, down from the previous month, but the index level continued to remain in the boom range. From the perspective of industry, the business volume and new order index of the railway transportation industry and the postal express industry have increased significantly.

Electricity consumption is also a "barometer" for economic operation. As a major industrial province, Jiangsu's cumulative electricity consumption in the seven days of the Spring Festival holiday reached 9.195 billion kWh, an increase of 18.27% year-on-year; as an important manufacturing base in the country, the cumulative electricity consumption during the Spring Festival in Hubei was 3.874 billion kWh, an increase of 36.45% year-on-year.

The China Electricity Council expects that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 5% to 6% year-on-year this year, and the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in each quarter will generally increase quarter by quarter. Experts believe that the expected improvement in electricity demand reflects confidence in the growth of the real economy.

Economic momentum is expected to accelerate upwards

Following the release of leading indicators such as PMI, data such as credit and PPI in January will also be released in the near future. Institutions generally believe that under the influence of policies to guide credit growth and promote the stable development of the real economy, superimposed on the "opening red" of credit at the beginning of the year, the scale of new credit for enterprises in January may exceed the same period last year.

Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said that PMI has been at the level of prosperity for 3 consecutive months, and the forward-looking signal of economic recovery and credit stabilization has emerged, and the economic performance in the first quarter will exceed market expectations.

Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that since the beginning of the year, all localities have further refined the implementation of the stable growth policy, and the expected indicators of market players have rebounded month-on-month. It is expected that with a combination of policy support and optimistic expectations, the economic momentum is expected to accelerate upwards. (End)