"Military Sub-Plane" author: I am Ivan the Great
According to the Global Times, on February 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with visiting French President Emmanuel Macron in the Kremlin to discuss the security situation in Europe and bilateral relations. Although both sides had high expectations and reached a certain consensus on the meeting in advance, the information released after the meeting showed that there were still differences between Russia and France on some key issues.
The next day, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy met with French President Macron, who had just finished his meeting from Russia, in the capital Kiev.
The US military moves frequently
At the same time, according to the Global Network, the US navy, army and air force are still gathering in Eastern Europe: for example, in the army unit, the US military will continue to increase the number of troops by about 3,000 people in eastern Europe when 8,000 soldiers have been deployed. At the same time, the U.S. Army also intends to send the advance detachment of the 82nd Airborne Division, including the command organs and several support detachments, as a strategic mobile force, to Eastern Europe first, and first establish a forward command post, which can be dropped to Eastern Europe at a relatively fast speed in the event of an accident in Eastern Europe.
On February 6, Poland, the first U.S. troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe arrived in Poland.
The U.S. Army moves frequently, and the U.S. Navy is not to be outdone. At the end of last year, the U.S. Navy's CVN-75 Uss Truman Aircraft Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was left directly in the Mediterranean to "deal with the situation in Eastern Ukraine" on its way through the Mediterranean sea area and preparing to deploy to the Middle East.
According to information disclosed by the U.S. Navy, in addition to the aircraft carriers as core ships, the formation also has at least 1 "Tycon" class cruiser, 2 "Burke" class destroyers and 1 "Blue Ridge" class amphibious landing campaign command ship.
During the exercise, the US aircraft carrier "Truman", the Italian "Cavour" aircraft carrier (ITS Cavour), and the French "Charles de Gaulle" aircraft carrier (R91 Charles de Gaulle) held a "three-carrier group photo".
On February 4, the formation held a joint military exercise in the Adriatic Sea with the Italian Navy's light aircraft carrier formation "Cavour" code-named "Neptune Strike 2022". After the exercise, it is said that the French Navy's "Charles de Gaulle" aircraft carrier formation also joined the warband, thus forming a considerable "three-carrier" formation in the Mediterranean sea area.
Movements of the Russian army
The Russian military reacted immediately to nato, especially the movement of the U.S. military in Eastern Europe. For example, yesterday, some Russian netizens photographed some Russian Aerospace Force MiG-31К fighters that were landing in the Russian Air force's enclave in central Europe and over Kaliningrad, and the difference was that these MiG-31К carried Kh-47M "dagger" air-launched hypersonic vehicles under the belly.
It should be known that the first batch of MiG-31К units equipped with "dagger" hypersonic aircraft were just formed last year, in addition to a small amount of equipment in the southern theater, the first MiG-31К regiment equipped with "daggers" seems to be located in the eastern military region of Russia, and this is the first time that a "dagger" hypersonic aircraft has been found in the Kaliningrad region of the western military region of Russia.
In addition to the Russian Air and Space Force, the Russian Navy, in order to cope with the NATO "three aircraft carriers" battle group operating in the Mediterranean, has also come up with a surface combat force of "bottom of the pressure box": We remember that around January 20 this year, the Chinese, Russian and Iranian navies carried out a trilateral joint military exercise in the Indian Ocean. Among them, the Russian Navy dispatched the flagship of the Pacific Fleet, the Type 1164 guided-missile cruiser Varyag belonging to the 36th Guided Missile Ship Corps, and a large anti-submarine ship type 1155 "Admiral Tributs" belonging to the 44th Anti-Submarine Warfare Detachment. After the exercise, the Russian Navy did not turn around and return to the Pacific, but continued westward, passing through the Suez Canal and entering the eastern Mediterranean. At present, the Pacific Fleet,500, headed by the Varyag, is staying off the coast of Syria and is constantly monitoring the movements of the navies of the United States, France, and Italy.
The cruiser Varyag enters the Mediterranean Sea
In addition, according to the British Royal Navy, the current flagship of the Russian Navy's Northern Fleet, the 1164-type guided-missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov belonging to the 43rd Guided Missile Ship Corps, and some other auxiliary ships, passed through the Faroe Islands in early February and are advancing towards the Strait of Gibraltar. It is said that the cruiser "Marshal Ustinov" has now entered the western Mediterranean sea, echoing the cruiser Varyag from east to west;
In early February, the cruiser Marshal Ustinov of the Russian Navy in Ireland's exclusive economic zone
In addition to these two cruisers, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the type 1164 guided-missile cruiser Moscow belonging to the 30th Guided Missile Ship Corps, and other auxiliary ships, have also allegedly left port, ready to cross the Dardanelles Strait into the Mediterranean Sea. If the above ships can complete the assembly, it will be the unprecedented "gathering" of three Type 1164 cruisers in the history of the Russian Navy to jointly deal with the three NATO aircraft carriers.
The strategic intent of the Russian army
So, what is the significance of the Russian Air and Space Force and the Russian Navy's recent tit-for-tat force mobilization against NATO, in terms of campaign tactics, and what kind of strategic intentions do they reflect on the Russian side? Ivan the Great believes that the Russian Navy has mobilized MiG-31К to Kaliningrad and deployed "dagger" hypersonic vehicles; and has mobilized three Type 1164 missile cruisers to the Mediterranean sea, both of which are tactically targeted and can ensure a balance of power with NATO to a certain extent and deter NATO's military adventures.
Analyzed by the MiG-31К and the Dagger hypersonic vehicle deployed by the Russian army to Kaliningrad, this tactical action mainly responds to the deployment of the US ballistic missile defense system in Eastern Europe:
Position distribution and power range of danish eye snake and paving claw radar (without considering antenna pointing and scanning range) Image source: Zhihu @wxfight
At present, the US military's missile defense system (BMD) in Eastern Europe mainly includes the following situational awareness units, the strategic early warning radar is mainly deployed in the AN/FPS-132 "paving claw" radar deployed at the Royal Air Base in Philingdales, England; the campaign-level early warning radar has two main parts, one is the "land-based Aegis" deployed at de Weselu Air Base in southern Romania, and the other is the "land-based Aegis" deployed in Randykovo, Poland. Romania has also deployed the THAAD system and the AN/TPY-2 X-band radar of the US 90th Anti-Aircraft Artillery Brigade.
Ground/sea-based X-band radar position distribution and power range (without considering antenna pointing and scanning range) Image source: Zhihu @wxfight
In the case of events in Eastern Europe, these large and small missile defense systems will have a greater impact on Russia's campaign deployment. To this end, it is necessary to knock out all the early warning radars and fire control radars of these missile defense systems. From Kaliningrad, whether to Poland, Romania, or to the British mainland, the distance is not more than 1500 kilometers, all within the strike radius of the MiG-31К and the "Dagger" hypersonic vehicle, and it is quite appropriate to use hypersonic vehicles deployed to Kaliningrad to deter the missile defense system of the US military in Eastern Europe.
In the case of the two (possibly three) Type 1164 cruisers deployed by the Russian Army to the Mediterranean, this is probably the best performance, the strongest combat effectiveness, and the most feared surface warships of the NATO Navy at present, each Type 1164 cruiser is equipped with 16 P-1000 "Volcano" supersonic campaign anti-ship missiles.
When Russian naval vessels are deployed in the eastern Mediterranean sea area, they can back to Cyprus and Syria, and under the cover of the Russian Air and Space Force's special air brigade in Syria, blockade the first line Crete and Rhode Island and block the NATO navy's movement to the Black Sea. Similarly, it can also be blocked in the Aegean Sea area, and the NATO aircraft carrier that will enter the Aegean Sea will "close the door and fight the dog".
Tracking and surveillance of the cruiser Varyag, a U.S. Navy destroyer
However, considering the weak comprehensive strength of the Russian Air and Space Force's task force in Syria, it is often equipped with only 8 Su-35S fighters as air superiority. To strengthen the Russian military's ability to carry out joint naval and air operations in the eastern Mediterranean, it is estimated that the 45th Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet Maritime Assault Aviation Corps will be dispatched, which is equipped with Su-30SM fighters, which can enhance the Air Superiority Capability of the Russian Army in the region to a greater extent.
Under the agreement between Russia and Syria, Russian troops can be deployed at Khmemingm Air Base indefinitely.
All in all, this round of troop mobilization of the Russian army in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean region can tactically form an effective containment of NATO's actions in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean region, and achieve the purpose of "war to stop the war". In terms of strategic intent, Ivan the Great believes that Russia seems to have identified the current situation in Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, behind the situation. After all, if at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, NATO led by the United States, some countries in Eastern Europe, and the European Union (especially Germany and France) were all mixed together in the situation in Ukraine, and the situation was not clear for the time being, and at present, with the three countries of Germany, France, and Russia basically reaching an agreement on "retreating from the situation", only one United States is still doing nothing, insisting on not letting the situation cool down, but still continuing to send more troops to Eastern Europe, and who is the biggest "operator" of the chaos in Eastern Europe this time is basically clear.
In this case, the Russian Navy and the Air and Space Force have moved their forces to Eastern Europe, which has very clearly pointed to the deployment of US troops in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, in short, this is the Russian version of the Chinese People's Liberation Army that "only hit Chiang Kai-shek ships, not US ships" in the campaign of shelling Kinmen. Through a targeted strategic deterrent to the deployment of US troops in Eastern Europe, it will not damage the consensus on cooling the situation that russia, France, Germany, Ukraine and other countries have basically negotiated, and can also effectively curb the possibility of the United States playing tricks behind its back and deliberately letting the situation heat up further. Russia's hand, we think it is still relatively clever.
In short, after a month or so of thrilling struggle, except for a very small number of countries outside the region who are still desperately bungee jumping, the situation in eastern Ukraine has finally shown signs of relaxation, and here, we sincerely hope that the situation in eastern Ukraine can return to stability at an early date and that the Ukrainian issue can be resolved peacefully and steadily.