Japanese companies are beginning to abandon the hydrogen energy vehicle route, so is there still a chance for hydrogen energy?
Honda abandons the hydrogen energy route
A few days ago, I saw a news that Honda's new CEO Toshiro Mibe said in an interview a while ago that Honda had determined that hydrogen fuel technology would not become mainstream 10 years ago, and shouted toyota, believing that Toyota should stop pursuing hydrogen fuel technology and focus on the development of pure electric vehicles.
It seems that Honda began to wake up after hitting his head and breaking the blood, and by the way, he also reminded Toyota, who has not yet woken up, to recognize the reality and pour into the lithium battery is the right way.
For hydrogen energy, this can be described as a "big profit", to some extent, equivalent to its commercial value being further "falsified".
In fact, we have also specifically talked about the hydrogen energy industry before, and the industry is also more pessimistic, thinking that it is still far from large-scale commercial use, and can only be used in some commercial vehicle fields in the short and medium term, and the passenger car field is too difficult. The next lithium battery industry, even the advantages are even greater, hydrogen energy to develop to which stage?
To understand this, it is necessary to figure out what are the advantages and disadvantages of the current lithium battery technology route and the hydrogen energy route.
Comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen energy and lithium batteries
The energy density of hydrogen energy is higher, compared to lithium batteries, the two are not an order of magnitude at all, and the energy density of hydrogen energy is more than 100 times that of lithium batteries, that is, as long as hydrogen energy can be used on a large scale, endurance is not a problem at all.
However, because lithium batteries are directly used by electricity, and hydrogen needs to be converted through electricity, hydrogen as a secondary energy source, energy utilization efficiency is much lower than that of lithium batteries, and this is also the point of Musk diss hydrogen energy.
(On the left is the fuel cell, that is, the hydrogen energy battery, and on the right is the lithium battery)
In addition, hydrogen energy is mainly taken from water, there is no restriction of rare metals, and the weight is much lighter than lithium batteries.
But the most deadly and limiting the disadvantage of its current large-scale commercial use is: safety issues!
Hydrogen is a typical flammable and explosive, which determines that hydrogen energy has higher requirements for safety, even far higher than lithium batteries, whether it is hydrogen cylinders and power systems installed on the car, and the entire industry chain has particularly high requirements for safety: from hydrogen production, to hydrogen transportation, to hydrogenation.
The result is that the construction cost of a hydrogen refueling station is at least several million, or even tens of millions, on the contrary, the charging pile, and even the current substation, is much cheaper than the hydrogen refueling station, especially the charging pile.
It is precisely because of the two problems of safety and cost that they have not been well solved, not only the development of the industry is relatively slow, in the cognition of end consumers, the acceptance is also extremely low, the purchase of hydrogen energy vehicles is extremely low, and few people dare to try it.
What's worse is that once a safety accident occurs, the result is often very serious, which is a fatal blow to the entire industrial chain.
After comparing the advantages and disadvantages, it is very clear.
Limited by the safety of hydrogen energy, every technological progress of safer lithium batteries is a weakening of the advantages of hydrogen energy, that is, when the battery life is higher and the charging speed is faster, the outstanding advantages of hydrogen energy will be weakened.
Not to mention that if the power battery technology, when to get rid of the shackles of lithium, such as sodium-ion battery technology has greater progress, can really achieve large-scale commercial use, the advantages of hydrogen energy will be more weakened.
In addition, there is a more important reason: between hydrogen energy and lithium batteries, it is actually a standard dispute between countries.
The dispute over standards
We all know that in the lithium battery industry, China and the United States have a leading edge, respectively, they have mastered a large number of industry standards and technical reserves, but the main patented technologies of new energy are still in Japan, especially in Toyota and Honda.
Here, it has to be mentioned how bullish Tesla's strategy of opening up some of its own patented technologies is, which makes the development of the entire industry faster and complete the industrial chain, so that as a pioneer, itself has successfully sat on the global new energy vehicle leader throne.
Previously, Japanese companies wanted to firmly grasp the hydrogen energy patent technology in their own hands, to put it bluntly, they still wanted to eat alone, and continued to continue their hegemony in the global automotive market in the era of internal combustion engines.
But for China, this is completely unacceptable, China wants to move towards developed countries, the automobile industry must have a greater breakthrough, the era of internal combustion engine is limited by the technical difference of the internal combustion engine, there is no way to make a big breakthrough.
It was hard to survive the era of new energy vehicles, ushered in the opportunity to overtake in the corners, how to give up this advantage.
Of course, it cannot be said that Japanese companies do not have a pattern, which is actually the dilemma that traditional technology leaders will face after the arrival of all new technology waves: do not follow the change, that is, wait for death; follow the change, is to find death.
And Tesla is completely from scratch, grabbing the fuel vehicle market, while ensuring that they have a leading edge, must be hoping that the more perfect the industrial chain, the better, the more peers the better, as soon as the cake is bigger, anyway, as long as you ensure that you get the biggest cake in it.
Other traditional fuel vehicle giants are very embarrassed, depending on who can put it to death and live again.
Is there no chance of hydrogen energy at all?
So hydrogen energy has no chance at all?
Nor is it, as Toyota of the head iron has gradually liberalized some hydrogen energy-related technology patents, and in some specific scenarios, such as passenger cars that often run high-speed, there are still specific advantages.
This is also why the national level has also introduced policies to encourage the accelerated development of hydrogen energy, in addition to loosening the shackles of patented technology, but also looking at the application advantages of hydrogen energy in the short and medium term in specific scenarios.
Of course, the main reason is that China's national conditions are too special!
Our country is a large country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, and if we want to eventually become a developed country, we are destined to have a place in all high-tech fields.
Although in the lithium battery as the representative of the new energy vehicle industry chain, China has achieved a relatively large leading edge, but the technical route of the power battery has not yet been finalized, before the technology finally decides the victory or defeat, we must take all the technical routes, on the one hand, we have this ability, on the other hand, we must do this, we simply can not bear the rout caused by taking the wrong technical route.
Just like the new crown vaccine, many countries only choose a technical route, such as mRNAa vaccine, recombinant vaccine, inactivated vaccine, adenovirus vector vaccine, attenuated vaccine, etc., but China is 5 technical routes all, yes, we are 5 hands to grasp, 5 hands to be hard!
In addition to our ability, it is also the vaccine of more than a billion Chinese people themselves, which cannot be in the hands of others!
So hydrogen energy can still be concerned, but at least in the short and medium term, it can only be used as a supplement to the lithium battery industry chain, the performance of the stock market is the same, first lithium battery performance, and then continue to hydrogen energy, so the research priority of the hydrogen energy industry chain will be relatively backward.
Unless, at some point, the industry explodes with technological advances and there are better solutions to security issues.