For Starship fans, Musk, who shines more than a rock star, has a solo concert that is about to kick off. Texas evening wind, low star bucket, starship matching, old horse speech next generation space artifact...
● Theme: The second starship media conference
●Time: 20:00 US-China time on February 10, 10:00 Beijing time on February 11
● Location: Launch Area of Boca Chica Starship Base, Texas
● Features: Compared with the first starship release show three years ago (September 29, 2019), the latest second starship show (February 10, 2022) is not only a Musk-style personal show, but also the latest show of the next generation of human space transportation systems - the prelude to the debut of the challenge orbital class.
● Guess: This starship show, what will the old horse break?
○ Guess 1: Interpret the upgrade information of the starship system
For Musk, who has just been elected to the American Academy of Engineering, I am afraid that he will also elaborate on the technical flow and data flow of the starship system in a large section, which has become his signature paradigm. It is expected that the content will most likely involve the new design of the starship spacecraft: the thrusters will be increased from 6 Raptors to 9 Raptors; the front wings will be smaller and closer to the leeward surface; the thermal insulation layer will be expanded; the fuel tank will be optimized...
○ Conjecture 2: The second generation of raptor development update
Last Year's Thanksgiving, Musk released a dangerous word within: the development of the Raptor encountered major problems, which seriously affected the progress of the Starship and Starlink projects, which may lead to the bankruptcy of the company. Since the internal email was revealed, Lao Ma rarely talked about what the big trouble was with the second generation of raptors, but only claimed that the problem was being solved. Entering January this year, the second generation of raptor testing has significantly accelerated and become denser, and the continuous testing news from the McGregor base seems to give optimistic evidence.
Compared with the first generation of Raptor thrust of 185 tons, complex design and manufacturing, the second generation of Raptor thrust increased to 230 tons, simplifying the design, optimizing the process, easier mass production, in line with the requirements of rapid reuse, which means that the second generation of Raptor is more qualified for the final configuration of 33 super heavy rockets and the final configuration of 9 starships, that is to say, only the second generation of Raptor mass production can make the starship fly smoother and farther. It is expected that Musk can bring the second generation of Raptors to the good news.
○ Guess three: When does the capture arm move the real capture?
The day before the conference, the capture arm made its first appearance in operation, clamping the starship S20 and lifting it over the head of the super heavy B4, allowing the B4+S20 to fit again. In just a few months of work, the old horse has faith in what he says and does what he says. The versatile launch tower is performing a stunt step by step, starting with the hoisting starship, the progressive display is expected to boldly try aerial recovery in the near future, and finally honor the old horse's "crazy man's delusion": magically achieve the capture arm air capture super heavy.
At this conference, Musk is standing in front of the starship combination, it is impossible not to talk about the capture arm, the launch tower, the 0th level (ground support support system), when will the capture arm move the real capture? Become the focus of attention.
○ Guess Four: B4+S20 or first flight preferred?
Although B4+S20 has long been designated as the preferred combination for the first flight of the starship orbital class, and is currently the most fully configured and well-prepared starship combination, the starship iteration has never stopped, the successor technology iteration is very fast, the manufacturing optimization is a lot, once the first flight is postponed for a few months, it is likely to arrange "later on", so that the new starship combination with better configuration and better technology can replace the B4+S20, which is not impossible, but completely possible.
Maybe Musk will not take the initiative to disclose this possibility this time, but it is possible to be asked in the Q&A interactive session. See how the old horse answered.
○ Guess Five: Re-give the first flight schedule?
The timeline for the first flight of the starship is constantly changing and postponing. From July last year, to the golden autumn season, to Q4, before the end of the year, until this year's Q1... At present, the most optimistic and reliable first flight time is also the end of March and the beginning of April, and the more realistic point is Q2. Because the biggest restriction: the environmental assessment has not yet been approved, and the FAA's earliest announcement of the EIA results has been postponed until February 28, and if something goes wrong, it may be postponed for as little as a few weeks to as many as months.
Therefore, the first flight time of the Starship Orbit class is likely to be readjusted, and the old horse gives a new "Musk time" this time.
○ Guess Six: The interactive session is likely to be more informative
According to the convention, the media conference of Musk's paradigm, in addition to personal speeches, of course, is indispensable to the Q&A interactive link, and it is also indispensable to the more professional, unpopular and sharper problems thrown by various media.
For example, when will the lunar version of the starship appear? How's it going? What is the progress of starship orbital refueling development? When will the two super-sea launch recovery platforms (Phobos and Phobos) come in handy? When can I get the FAA EIA procedures and launch permits? Starship or SLS, which launch system was the first to successfully enter orbit? Which lunar rocket is the current NASA decision-making level more inclined to? ......
For these questions, perhaps the old horse will not give an answer at all, or respond skillfully, or may be blunt, anyway, just in the second starship show at a glance.
Three years ago, the starship Mk1 behind the old horse, which was just a steel model, has now become a combination of starships that really have the ability to fly into space: super heavy rockets and starship spaceshipS4+S20, which are digital combinations 42: symbolizing the opening of the era of great spaceflight, the ultimate answer to life and the universe (derived from Douglas Adams' masterpiece "The Guide to the Galaxy").
For the old horse who gambled on starships for the rest of his life, it seems most appropriate to give the starship orbit its first flight with a hidden number "42" - the best way to know what the future world will be like is to create a starship world, you can see it at a glance.