On the night of the first day of the Chinese New Year, Dr. Zhang Wenhong posted a Weibo post in which he cited data from the UK on the case fatality rate in the Uk to refute the view that the Olmicore strain is less virulent and therefore does not need to be vaccinated.
Image source: Screenshot of Zhang Wenhong's Weibo
Why is Dr. Zhang Citing the UK's case fatality rate? Biomedical Doctor and American Practicing Physician @Aspirin 42195m interpret this.
Aspirin 42195 m:
In a recent article, Dr Zhang Wenhong cited data from health security (equivalent to Public Health England) on THE CASE mortality rate:
- No vaccination: the case fatality rate of Ami kerong under 60 years of age is 0.03%, similar to seasonal influenza;
- Unvaccinated: 60-69 years, 70-79 years, case fatality rates over 80 years are 2.65%, 8.87%, 21.54% respectively;
- After receiving three doses of AstraZeneca and mRNA vaccines, the case fatality rate in these four age groups decreased to 0.0086%, 0.09%, 0.42% and 2.61%.
Why did Dr Zhang pick the UK data?
Because the covid-19 case fatality rate is more difficult to calculate.
The case fatality rate is defined as the proportion of all infected people who die from COVID-19 over a certain period of time.
COVID-19 is a very special disease, and there are many people who are infected without symptoms and will not be detected. This is also the reason why there are now positive cases found in some parts of the country but it is difficult to find the upper home, because the person who may have passed it on to you does not know but has been cured.
Only areas screened on a large scale will know the exact total number of infections and can calculate an accurate case fatality rate.
There is no mass screening in the UK, so how did they calculate the case fatality rate of Aomi Kerong?
Shortly after the start of the 2020 outbreak, STATISTICS ONS partnered with oxford university, public health England, the University of Manchester, and wellcome trusts to start a community-based PCR screening program.
As a pilot, they initially surveyed 10,000 households, who regularly collected samples of their throats and nasopharynx for nucleic acid (PCR) testing. Screening included everyone over the age of 2 years, bringing the total to 25,000.
Through this method, the bureau can know how many people in the UK are positive for COVID-19 at a certain point in time, what is the transmission coefficient R, what is the rate of secondary infection in the family, and so on.
Through local sampling tracking detection analysis, the denominator (total number of infections) required for the calculation of the case fatality rate can also be calculated.
About 1 in 5 of these households also provided blood samples to detect how many people had COVID-19 antibodies.
In the past two years, this community targeted screening has become larger and more perfect, with 515,896 people screened in 2021, currently covering the United Kingdom, Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and various model analyses have been done through screening, so the United Kingdom can quickly analyze the case fatality rate of the epidemic of the Aumechjong virus strain.
I remember that after the outbreak of the epidemic, many people in the WeChat group turned to the performance of nurses dancing around the hospital bed in the previous British Olympic Games, suggesting that the United Kingdom had long known that the new crown was going to happen, and people who watched it said that their backs were cold.
It was the 2012 Olympics, and the show showcased two achievements that Britons are proud of: children's books and the British healthcare system. So a lot of times when we don't know enough, we will make up a conspiracy theory that is easiest to explain.
From this accurate and rapid analysis of the case fatality rate of Omiquerong, it can be seen that the United Kingdom has provided the world with valuable information about the epidemic and vaccines, and the British people should really be proud of their health care system, and the world should thank them.
At present, the comparison of the mortality rate of new crown and influenza in the United Kingdom is as follows, the longitudinal axis is logarithmic coordinates, and it is important to note that there are certain public health measures for the new crown.
Curated: Ground cat
Executive Producer: Gyouza