Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
On Friday, January 28, the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the turnover of shanghai and Shenzhen cities was 818.9 billion yuan throughout the day. The Shanghai index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen component index fell 0.53%, the ChiNext index rose 0.07%, and the total net outflow of northbound funds was 12.466 billion yuan.
On Monday, February 7, the first day after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai index rose 2.03%, the Shenzhen component index rose 0.96%, the ChiNext index rose 0.31%,, and the northbound funds collectively bought a net purchase of 5.552 billion yuan.
The market fluctuated greatly, and the auto sector also jumped up and down. Since January 19, the auto index (931008) has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, and on January 28, it hit the lowest value in the past six months at 8331.58 points. On Tuesday, January 25, Thursday, January 27, more than 230 of the 245 individual stocks in the auto sector fell.
In the week before the Spring Festival, the stock market was violently volatile, and in order to boost market sentiment, a number of fund companies announced that they had purchased their own to protect the market. On January 27 alone, 15 public funds such as E Fund, Huaxia Fund, GF Fund and Southern Fund issued self-purchase announcements, and fund self-purchase ushered in a climax.
Attentive investors remember that after the 2022 New Year's Day holiday, there was a collective decline in track stocks. So why did the market fluctuate violently in the last trading week before the Spring Festival?
Ping An Fund believes: "Since the beginning of 2022, A shares have experienced sharp fluctuations, on the one hand, it is worried about domestic economic growth, on the other hand, it is affected by overseas markets. A shares have continued to fall sharply since the beginning of the year, which is related to the high valuation of the high boom track and the correction, mainly due to the greater impact of the peripheral market. ”
China Merchants Fund said: "The guidelines given in the written documents of the Fed's January interest rate meeting are basically in line with market expectations. But Powell said hawkish at the press conference, the point of exceeding expectations is that he is open to more than four interest rate hikes during the year, and the extent of interest rate hikes, resulting in the market's expectation of interest rate hikes during the year rising to 4 to 5 times, which triggers the rapid tilt of asset prices to hawks. ”
How will A shares go after the Spring Festival? Guotai Junan put forward the idea of "strengthening confidence and adding warehouses for the New Year". They believe: "After the Spring Festival, the negative expectations of liquidity will gradually peak and digest, while the positive factors will gradually correct upwards, and the market will gradually warm up after the Spring Festival." In this context, the focus of investment has shifted from high growth to low valuation. Optimistic about the consumer, infrastructure, finance, consumer electronics sectors. ”
CITIC Securities believes that "the resonance of 'emotional bottom' and 'market bottom' will become the starting point of the market in the first half of the year. A Rate Hike by the Federal Reserve in March was almost a foregone conclusion. The short-term adjustment of the A-share market deviates from the trend of domestic monetary easing, and external changes such as the Fed's easing and withdrawal will not restrict the domestic 'me-based' policy style, nor will it change the trend of foreign capital increasing A-shares in the long run. Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market has also deviated from the fundamental trend under the support of the policy, the time point when the downward pressure on the domestic economic growth rate has passed, and after the currency has exceeded expectations, the relay of other ministries and localities is expected to form a policy synergy, and the 'policy bottom' has been clarified. Under the resonance of 'sentiment bottom' and 'market bottom', the overshoot of A shares has brought better buying points to the layout of the market in the first half of the year. ”
Is the post-holiday trend of A shares really consistent with the judgment of brokers? At the post-holiday opening on February 7, the three major indexes rose: the Shanghai Index rose 2.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.96%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%; the Auto Index closed at 8691.46 points, up 232.35 points, or 2.75%. Among the 245 listed companies in the auto sector, 185 individual stocks rose, accounting for 75.51%.
However, in the wave of A-shares ushering in the "start of red envelopes" - the rise of the three major indexes, the automobile sector, the lithium battery plate, respectively, more than 75%, 80% of the stocks rose, the only listed company on the ChiNext board with a market value of more than one trillion yuan - The stock price of Ningde Times fell by 2.22% against the trend, what is the reason? Stay tuned for our follow-up updates.
(Image source: Internet)