Text/Ruicheng
In late October, liquor listed companies successively disclosed three quarterly reports. Liquor is a liquor company that announced its results in advance, achieving a net profit of 720 million yuan in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 117.69% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter was 210 million yuan, which was slightly lower than the net profit in the second quarter. So far this year, the stock price of alcoholic liquor has risen by nearly 50%, ranking 8th in the winemaking sector.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="3" > net profit growth rate of 118%, internal reference series or revenue doubled</h1>
On October 23, the alcoholic liquor disclosed the results of the third quarter of this year. At the same time, the three quarterly reports were also disclosed in Guizhou Moutai and Jinhui Liquor, and The Alcoholics Liquor was a liquor company that handed over the report card in advance. The company achieved a net profit of 720 million yuan, an increase of 117.69% year-on-year; achieved operating income of 2.64 billion yuan, an increase of 134.2% year-on-year. Net profit and revenue doubled year-on-year, and the difference between revenue and net profit growth rate was only 16.51%, indicating that the company's performance growth is not in the form of "small profits but large sales", which is a qualitative improvement.
Judging from the three quarterly reports since 2017, the performance growth rate of liquor this year is the best level in 5 years. The performance base of liquor has increased, and it can still maintain a growth rate of 118%, and according to this momentum, the net profit may exceed the 1 billion yuan mark at this time next year. It is worth noting that in the first nine months of 2017, the company's net profit was only 116 million yuan, and the company's rapid growth began in 2020.
Chart: The growth rate of net profit and net profit of liquor in the third quarter since 2017
Source: Understand the wine truth, Choice
There are three major strains of alcoholic liquor, namely "internal reference", "drunkard" and "Xiangquan", which belong to the tulip liquor. Among them, the internal reference is a single product that the company has strongly recommended in recent years. According to the company's official website, the internal ginseng wine is made of the top original wine accumulated by the alcoholic liquor company for many years, so the output is extremely limited, and it can only implement limited production and quantitative sales, as Master Huang Yongyu said, "drink a bottle, a bottle less, a sip, a bite less."
Orient Securities analysis believes that the operating income of the internal reference in the third quarter is expected to double its growth, and it will enhance its brand influence by holding high. The company mainly benefits from the rapid expansion of the sub-high-end price band, as well as the strong channel thrust after the upgrading of alcoholic liquor products and channel carding, and the price increase in the market control in Hunan Province in the province has increased steadily; the market outside the province has accelerated the expansion of the blank market and attracted investment to promote the volume. Since the beginning of this year, the drunkard has also strengthened its brand building, held high, and enhanced its brand influence through the titles of "Ten Thousand Miles Of Single Rides" and "China National Geographic".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="24" > internal reference price increase, the gross profit margin hit the highest value in the third quarter of the calendar year</h1>
Judging from the data of this year's mid-year report, the alcoholic liquor products are mainly divided into the alcoholic series, the internal reference series, the Xiangquan series and so on. Among them, drunkards are the company's most important series of wines, accounting for 57.18% of operating income, and the gross profit margin of products is 79.5%. In contrast, although the internal reference series only accounts for 30.33% of the operating income, the gross profit margin is as high as 92.58%. This gross profit margin level has been on a par with Guizhou Moutai. Obviously, the internal reference is the company's highest level of gross profit series, increasing the proportion of revenue of the internal reference, creating high-end liquor, to establish a high-end brand image of liquor has a positive effect. Since the implementation of model innovation in 2019, the internal reference has successfully consolidated the high-end occupancy with the help of COFCO brand resources.
It is understood that the internal reference in Hunan Province by the return of foreign goods affected, july batch price of 810 yuan, the company control after the September batch price raised to 830-840 yuan, October to maintain stability, terminal transaction price of about 1,000 yuan. The price of internal reference rose slightly, which led to an increase in the company's overall gross profit margin level.
The data shows that the gross profit margin of alcoholic liquor hit the best level in the three quarters since its listing. Selecting the gross profit margin analysis of the same period since 2011, the liquor has basically remained above 73%, and the gross profit margin in 2014 and 2015 has fallen sharply. In the third quarter of 2021, the liquor reached 79.89%, breaking through the gross profit margin bottleneck of 77-78%, reaching the best level in history.
Chart: The gross profit margin change of the alcoholic liquor reported in the third quarter since 2011
In summary, as the most expensive series of alcoholic liquors, the price of internal reference has increased, which has increased the overall gross profit margin. For the company's future marketing strategy, Guojin Securities analysis believes that in the medium and long term, the volume of the province is comparable to the national cellar, the core markets such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Guangdong outside the province are intensively cultivated (100 million-level), and the cultivation markets such as East China and Hubei can quickly break through with the help of large businessmen, and the blank markets such as northeast and northwest can be covered by investment foundations.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="25" > the net profit in the third quarter fell sequentially, and the sub-high-end liquor outperformed the high-end liquor? </h1>
In the third quarter of the alcoholic liquor, the net profit growth rate reached 118%. In the third quarter, it achieved a net profit of 210 million yuan, compared with 146 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 43.84% year-on-year. Both year-on-year figures are more eye-catching, but the disadvantage is that the performance has declined month-on-month. Net profit in the second quarter of this year was 242 million yuan, down 13.22% from the previous quarter.
Alcoholic liquor and Shede liquor are representatives of sub-high-end liquor, and the two companies can be compared together. In the first three quarters of this year, Shede Liquor achieved profits of 302 million, 434 million and 234 million yuan respectively. Compared with the extraordinary performance in the second quarter, the net profit in the third quarter fell by 46.08% month-on-month. It can be seen that the two companies mainly based on sub-high-end liquor have experienced a decline in net profit in the third quarter, and the decline in the liquor industry is more obvious.
Figure: Comparison of net profit of Shede Liquor and Liquor in the first three quarters
Source: Understand the truth of wine, flush with flowers
Of course, the net profit in the third quarter declined, which is related to factors such as seasonality in the liquor industry. However, the recent three quarterly reports of high-end liquor Guizhou Moutai have been released, and the two companies have shown different results. Guizhou Moutai in the third quarter net profit of 12.61 billion yuan, the same period last year was 11.23 billion yuan, the second quarter of this year was 10.7 billion yuan, the third quarter growth rate is better than expected, both year-on-year and quarter-on-month growth rate of more than 10%. This may be related to factors such as the adjustment of Moutai business strategy and the change of coach of the company. However, it can be seen that high-end liquor performed better than sub-high-end liquor in the third quarter.
Of course, at present, the third quarterly report of liquor listed companies is still in intensive disclosure, whether it shows a high-end and sub-high-end liquor style conversion, it is necessary to wait for the comprehensive analysis after the disclosure of the quarterly reports of many companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao.