A return visit | the first anniversary of the changes in Myanmar: a interrupted political transition and an unattainable compromise

The Paper's reporter Xu Zhenhua

February 1, 2022, marks the first anniversary of the Myanmar Defence Forces declaring a takeover of power and implementing a state of emergency.

On February 1, 2021, the political situation in Myanmar suddenly changed, and the military detained Myanmar President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and others on the grounds of fraud in the 2020 general election, and the state power was transferred to the Commander-in-Chief of the National Defense Forces, Min Aung Nlay.

A year has passed, and the state of emergency in Myanmar has not ended, and the turbulent political and social situation in Myanmar has not returned to calm. Myanmar's Golden Phoenix Chinese Reported on February 1 that Myanmar's Defense and Security Council decided on January 31 to extend the national state of emergency for six months in accordance with Article 425 of the Constitution.

Aung San Suu Kyi has not regained her freedom, and there is a possibility of "sitting on the bottom of the prison". According to CCTV News, on January 31, the Myanmar NLD-appointed defense lawyer team released information that the NayPyidaw Zebudiuri Court had opened a case against Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Min suspected of election fraud. The New York Times said Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi faced up to 173 years in prison, while her supporters insisted the allegations were "spurious."

"Although some remain in Kayah State, many have had to leave their homes in search of safer shelters. Implicated in military operations, the homes of many civilians, including my family, have been damaged. Network and telephone signals are unstable, and power supply is often interrupted. Xiaomei, a Kayyah girl from Myanmar who was interviewed by The Paper in July last year, told The Paper recently.

Today, the broken process of Democratic Transition in Myanmar is still difficult to see the light of getting back on track; the military, the NLD (NLD), the MindiWu and other forces have not been able to bridge differences and reach a compromise within the framework of the Constitution and the law. Cambodia's deputy prime minister and foreign minister and ASEAN special envoy for Myanmar, Mr. Brasokun, the rotating chairman of ASEAN, warned that Myanmar already had "all the elements to erupt into civil war."

"I still think that if there is no march towards a full-scale civil war, then Myanmar will eventually form a compromise." Recently, it was reported that Min Aung Nhak Appeared to be hinting at lifting constitutional restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi's presidency. It's not known if he would actually do it, but at least both sides are still testing each other. He Jiajie, a young associate researcher in international relations and public affairs at Fudan University, said in an interview with The Paper.

Define each other as "horror"

According to a bulletin issued by the Myanmar Defense and Security Commission on the evening of January 31, Min Aung Nhay summed up the political, economic and social development of Myanmar since the implementation of the national emergency. Min Aung Nlay said that due to the "terrorist destruction" and attacks in parts of Myanmar's Chin State and Sagaing province, the fact that administrative officials in some townships across the country have yet to be appointed, and preparations for the holding of democratic elections in a multi-party system, Min Aung Nlae proposed to extend the national state of emergency for six months under article 425 of the constitution. The Defense and Security Council said the application was "unanimously approved" by the meeting.

Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a co-founder of the NGO Institute for Peace and Governance, wrote in the South China Morning Post on January 30 that the Arakan Army, a local ethnic minority armed force in Myanmar's Rakhine State, has tightened its grip on the area and even established a regime that collects taxes from local residents and assists the population in adjudicating disputes. Kyung-san Arin said in the article that the Burmese military was exhausted in a tug-of-war with the opposition and the Mindiwu, which gave the local Mindiwu the possibility of expanding the scope of the autonomous regime.

Kyoyama Alin was interviewed by The Paper in November 2020. At the time, Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD was identified by the Myanmar Federal Election Commission as the winner of that year's general election, but many ethnic minority activists were disappointed in her and NLD, believing that the NLD-led civilian government had achieved little success in advancing the process of national reconciliation, or even from the "Burmese hegemonism" that the military had long demonstrated.

Since Myanmar's independence in 1948, national reconciliation and peace processes have been slow to progress. After the NLD came to power in 2016, it repeatedly disappointed ethnic minority political forces; after the sudden political situation in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, the Burmese army and a number of civil armed forces clashed again, and there was news of "hot wars" in areas inhabited by ethnic minorities.

Today, the NLD has lost its central power as a result of the military's seizure of power. For the Burmese military, the NLD, the "Myanmar National Unity Government" (NUG), which some NLD members participated in, and other still active NDPK forces are "terrorists." According to the New York Times, February 1 this year marks the first anniversary of the changes in Myanmar, and opposition organizers called on the people to launch a "silent strike" that day to express their demands by staying at home and not participating in production and life. The military, by distributing leaflets, warned the public that if they engaged in such activities, they would be accused of "terrorism and incitement." Dozens of people were allegedly arrested as a result. According to the "Myanmar Golden Phoenix Chinese Newspaper", on the same day, yangon appeared in many places throughout Myanmar in the situation of "empty city".

But in the eyes of opponents of the military, the military is a "terrorist." In a recent interview with The Paper, Xiaomei repeatedly used the word "terrorist" to describe the military. In her view, the military's actions have caused the destruction of civilian homes, the danger to their lives, and the military has used arrests and even executions to suppress protesters. "Near my house, the army even stole food from civilians. I feel sorry for my fellow countrymen who have been left homeless by the activities of 'terrorists' (referring to the military). Xiaomei said.

The military and protesters are far apart over the number of arrests and the number of deaths affected by the conflict. According to Reuters on January 29, the Myanmar NGO Association for the Aid of Political Prisoners (AAPP) estimates that more than 8,000 people have been arrested by the military and about 1,500 more have been killed since February 1 last year. The Myanmar military criticized the AAPP group for spreading false information and that the figures were exaggerated.

The Myanmar military did not release statistics on its arrests of demonstrators, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the data provided by AAPP. According to the Reuters report, there are still many families of those arrested looking for the whereabouts of their loved ones, and it is hoped that the military will give their families an explanation as soon as possible.

"Making a living and food is more important than the pandemic"

"The COVID-19 situation in Myanmar is terrible, but most people can't care about it because they have more important things to do, such as making a living and finding food." Xiaomei told the surging news, "The price of goods in Kayah State is getting higher and higher. The price of cabbage, which used to be priced at 500 kyats (about 1.79 yuan), rose to 1,500 kyats. It was precisely because min Aung Nhay's Burmese army and people were at war that transportation and trade were in difficulty. ”

Because the Burmese army spent its main energy on dealing with the opposition and civilian armed forces, it failed to establish a stable order for production and life in the place where Xiaomei lived. Xiaomei said that the forces of the mindi martial arts and local ethnic parties have played a role in providing food and safety for the people, and the people have also spontaneously helped each other.

The military has long held political power in Myanmar, but it has not always been associated with decline and closure. According to an earlier report by the Myanmar media "Ilovadi", in 1988, there were large-scale protests in Myanmar, and the Burmese soldier Su Mao established the National Law and Order Restoration Committee to abolish the Constitution and implement military control. As time went on, street activity fell silent and many civil servants returned to work. Under the national law and order restoration committee, the military exercised more effective management of the country and introduced a market economy and economic liberalization policies that allowed Myanmar to successfully attract a wave of foreign investment in the early 1990s.

But Myanmar is now in the midst of a deep economic crisis. Bloomberg reported on January 31 that the Burmese military still has to deal with the activities of the civil forces and ongoing protests in the second year of the regime, the economy has been weakened, and foreign investors have withdrawn from the market. The United States and other Western countries are considering additional sanctions against the Burmese military. The World Bank estimates that Myanmar's economy contracted by nearly a fifth in the previous fiscal year. The World Bank also forecasts that Myanmar's economy could grow by only 1 percent in the fiscal year ending at the end of September.

According to Bloomberg, the economic difficulties myanmar is facing include:

Sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries, Myanmar's military-controlled oil and gas industry is highly likely to be the next target of sanctions;

More investors are exiting the Myanmar market, and a number of energy companies are withdrawing from the Myanmar market, which is considered to be a risk-evasion behavior in response to possible sanctions, and they may face a deteriorating business environment even if Japanese and Chinese companies are still investing in Myanmar's energy sector;

The intensification of armed conflict in myanmar's northern and central provinces has caused manpower shortages, supply disruptions, and weak demand in the manufacturing sector, leading to factories and businesses closing down or maintaining only low levels of operations;

The country is in financial crisis, including bank runs, sharp price increases, inflation, and plummeting exchange rates;

Poverty is expanding, with UNDP predicting that nearly half of Myanmar's population will live below the poverty line by early 2022;

Businesses and households lost electricity, including the destruction of power grids by protesters and the military's voluntary disconnection, resulting in economic losses and inconvenience.

Under such circumstances, the Burmese military is still intensifying its crackdown on protesters and civilian forces. Bloomberg quoted Moe Thuzar, a researcher at the Yusov Issa Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore and co-coordinator of the Myanmar Research Program, as saying that the military's gesture could further weigh on Myanmar's economy. "The arbitrariness of the military's enforcement actions does not bode well for investor confidence. The security situation in the country will also affect its economic potential and investor confidence, especially in terms of infrastructure and related projects. Motuza said.

The military's position remains solid

Xiaomei and other NLD supporters still maintain high expectations of the "government of national unity" and the opposition movement. "We can still see the dawn of victory, and we will not give up and get bored." "Min Aung Lhat would be nothing without weapons coercion, arms suppliers and the army." Xiaomei said.

Nevertheless, from a realistic point of view, the "Government of National Unity" and the new armed forces it organized last year, as well as other civilian armed forces, are still difficult to directly confront the Burmese army in terms of strength.

"For ordinary people, compromise is of course necessary. It is a multi-racial society, and if they want stability and order, they must accept the importance of the military and acknowledge the influence of the opposition. In fact, I have heard from scholars before that the people in Myanmar are also a little tired of the so-called endless resistance of democratic forces. Not everyone is against the military, especially given that the military is still struggling to maintain the proper functioning of some government institutions and state functions. The loudest voice in public opinion at present does not necessarily represent the opinion of the largest majority of the people in Myanmar. He Jiajie, a young associate researcher in international relations and public affairs at Fudan University, said.

Despite its military might, the Burmese military maintains control over the country at all levels, including ideology, economy and society.

A Feb. 1 article in Diplomat magazine analyzing the burmese military's mentality said the burmese military was still monopolizing Myanmar's nationalist narrative. On the streets of Burma, military banners are often seen with words such as "The Burmese army will not hesitate" and "The Burmese army is willing to give its life and sweat". According to earlier reports, at the end of the 1980s, the Burmese military summed up the three major business concepts of "the consolidation of the federation without division, the unity of the national unity without breaking, and the stability of sovereignty without wavering", which runs through myanmar's political ecology to this day.

The reason why there are still a large number of people willing to join or support the Burmese army is not only ideological recognition, but also livelihood considerations. The Burmese military plays a prominent role in Myanmar's national economy, and Burmese soldiers and their families can get more opportunities and privileges.

Maung Zarni, a Myanmar educator and human rights activist, told Diplomat: "Officers who leave the military, regardless of their professional qualifications, have the potential to gain important positions in the civilian sector (tourism, finance, health, forestry, mining, agriculture, trade, etc.). In addition, the Myanmar police are also led by veterans. Veterans' organizations — with more than a million members — have a wealth of economic opportunities. Therefore, for many Myanmar men, all these economic, commercial, and employment opportunities cannot be ignored. ”

Mansani once warned Aung San Suu Kyi that the chances of changing the mentality of the Burmese military are slim and that interaction with the military is dangerous. "She (Aung San Suu Kyi) is basically a one-man show, and the generals operate like a tight-knit gang." Manthani said.

Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest in 2010, along with the military-led 2008 constitution, ushered in a process of democratic political transition in Myanmar, allowing civilian officials and the military to share power. The Diplomat analysis pointed out that the political mutiny in 2021 has led to the "failure" of the strategy of reconciliation between the two sides, and protesters have refused to accept the proposal of civilian officials and military sharing power again.

This will obviously polarize Myanmar's political ecology and make compromise and peace even more precious. On December 6, 2021, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference that as a friendly neighbor, we sincerely hope that all parties and factions in Myanmar will proceed from the long-term interests of the country and the nation, bridge differences under the constitutional and legal framework, and continue to promote the process of democratic transformation that has not been easy to come by and suits Myanmar's national conditions.

He Jiajie strongly agreed with the judgment that the democratic transition process was "not easy to come by". "I still think compromise makes sense, because if you don't compromise, the result is endless conflict. Myanmar's nation-state building is far from complete, and the military remains a sine qua non for maintaining national unity. Acknowledging this, NLD must accept the influence of the military on national politics. She said.

He Jiajie also said: "The military should also understand that this is not 1962 (note: the Burmese army launched a military coup), nor is it 1988, the military dictatorship can no longer control the will of the people, stable politics is bound to need power sharing - here not only the military and the NLD, but also the Burmese and ethnic minorities." In fact, the military has been in control of the regime for a year, and they should also see the situation clearly, not to mention that now it is still facing pressure from the international community. ”

Responsible editor: Li Yiqing Photo editor: Le Yufeng

Proofreader: Shi Gong