With the Year of the Tiger in 2022 approaching, how should individuals invest |? The Year of the Tiger

Editor's Note

Nong Yin Tiger is old, and I am looking forward to spring.

This is our third Spring Festival in the battle against the epidemic. In the days of the past, we struggled to live in a world of great change.

When uncertainty becomes mainstream, when anxiety becomes daily, and when we say goodbye to the old and welcome the new, we have prepared four guides that hope to give you some inspiration to start the new year. "Success is not guaranteed, it may not be useful", but it is simple enough that you may wish to give it a try.

Less emo, more fun, a happy guide, I wish you a happy tiger;

Life is not only KPIs, but also BMI, a fitness guide, I wish you a dragon and a tiger;

Do not seek overnight wealth, but ask for the return of the fund, a guide to making money, I wish you a tiger to add wings;

Even if you are young, you must plan ahead, a guide to the elderly, I wish you a tiger and tiger vitality!

Text/Xun Shilin

The future, it seems, has become more uncertain.

On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the annual data of China's economy in 2021, and the gdp for the whole year of 2021 1143670 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year at constant prices. This is the second consecutive year that China's GDP has exceeded the 10 trillion yuan mark, the average GDP of Chinese has exceeded 10,000 US dollars for the third consecutive year, and the annual per capita disposable income of residents in the country is 35,128 yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the nominal increase in 2020.

With the growth of per capita disposable income in China, how to dispose of this part of the money in hand has become a new problem. According to public data, there were about 195 million Chinese investors at the end of 2021, compared with 178 million at the end of 2020.

As for the growth of Internet wealth management users, it is even more obvious, in 2015, this part of the user is only about 240 million people, but by 2020, this number has exceeded 600 million people. It is worth noting that according to the National Bureau of Statistics, there are currently about 1.41 billion people in the Chinese population, which means that more than 40% of them are involved in Internet financial management.

So, what should be done for personal investment in the Year of the Tiger in 2022? Can I make money?

The tide is irreversible

"I personally believe that if you want to see if you can make money in 2022, you must look at the general trend, whether you are investing in fund stocks or caring about the related trends of digital currencies."

Wang Jichao (pseudonym), a private equity practitioner, told the author that as far as his personal observation is concerned, the number of people trying to seek personal wealth appreciation in the past two years is gradually increasing, "revealing a message, our performance this year is not bad."

Why pay attention to megatrends?

Wang Jichao said that the current investment targets will basically be affected by the macro environment, and there is no shortage of institutional investors in any market today. "To a large extent, the actions of institutional investors will be affected by the macro environment, and the influence of individual investors is limited after all."

For example, he said, the total market value of A-shares in 2021 is 91.2 trillion yuan, while the total market value in 2020 is 79.7 trillion yuan, so the total market value of A-shares in 2021 increased by 11.5 trillion yuan. "If you calculate according to the current 195 million shareholders in A shares, on average, the average earns more than 50,000 yuan per capita, do you think it will be so optimistic?"

In the context of the reality of trade globalization, Wang Jichao believes that the next series of policy directions of the United States are likely to have a huge impact. He believes that the seriousness of inflation in the United States has become a consensus, and the Fed's interest rate hike is likely to come soon.

Xiao Hong (pseudonym), who studied in the United States, said that he felt that even if the United States is a developed country, he does not feel that Americans are rich. "Prices are quite high, and americans around me seem to be unable to afford anything."

According to Adobe Data Price Index, the price increase of 18 categories of online shopping for U.S. consumers, a total of 100 million online goods, will reach more than 10% in 2021.

"Once the interest rate is raised, the US stock market is likely to plummet, and then the Fed may continue to release water to rescue the market, which will have a great impact on the world."

Wang Jichao further explained that the economy is cyclical, and once the so-called "money" is no longer valuable, the possibility of fluctuations in various investment targets will be relatively large.

Based on this situation, Wang Jichao believes that China has actually already noticed this and is actively responding. He highlighted that many domestic policies in 2021 are de-bubbles, including preventing the excessive development of the Internet economy, "speculative economy must be contained, and a virtuous circle can only occur."

"Therefore, for personal investment targets in 2022, I think the fluctuations may be relatively large, and the domestic environment may be relatively better, but it is not recommended to be too reckless, or we should follow the general trend." Wang Jichao said.

Personal choice

"I still recommend that individual investors stick to long-term quality targets, although this is difficult to judge." Zhang Yangyue (pseudonym), who is currently starting a business to do asset allocation tools and community work, said.

According to her observation, the short-term fluctuations of various investment targets are extremely fast, and it is difficult for individual investors to chase the right trend, so it is difficult to make money. "Let me tell you the truth, don't talk about ordinary investors, even if many institutional investors are chasing the rise and killing the fall."

According to Zhang Yangyue's experience, foreign investors will believe more in value investment than domestic and foreign investor institutions, "of course, the exception of Musk."

She mentioned that in the past one or two years, many people feel that fund investment seems to be easier to make money than stock investment, "each sector has a certain certainty, the fund will inevitably limit the operation of some users, after all, the trading fee is also higher, and the fund also encourages users to hold for a long time."

"A cold knowledge is that too many investors are now accustomed to high-frequency operations, but according to the data statistics in the background, if a person buys a stock that does not move and does not operate, 70% of the probability will return to the capital after two weeks, so here I can probably understand why I recommend that individuals pursue the so-called value investment." Zhang Yangyue said.

Zhang Yangyue highlighted overseas assets, and she suggested that if there are capable and interested investors, they can allocate some overseas assets. "If you look at the trend of the stock markets of various countries around the world, some foreign capital markets are still doing well."

Global stock market gains (Image source: Courtesy of respondents)

Sun Zhe (pseudonym), who only began to buy Internet wealth management in 2019, told the author that he had actually considered buying the target of overseas markets before, but found that the deposit and withdrawal transaction was too difficult, so he gave up.

Sun Zhe said: "In the second half of 2019, I once considered opening an account with the US stock market, but because I did not have an overseas account, it was more difficult. At that time, a friend introduced that he could help open an account overseas and get a bank card, but he needed to pay a handling fee of 3,000 yuan, which was a reward for the family. At that time, I also felt reasonable, so I gave, but within a month, people refunded me the handling fee of 3,000 yuan, saying that the policy was tightened, and it was really impossible to do it, so the idea of purchasing overseas assets was also eliminated. ”

Zhang Yangyue also said that this situation is normal, and at the same time, she is still confident about the domestic market in 2022. She personally believes that the valuation of many high-quality targets in the market is not high now, and there is a lot of room for choice.

Wu Bi (pseudonym), a primary market investor, told this writer that she personally prefers to focus on manufacturing and high-tech projects. "It is very likely that this will become a new investment direction trend for some time to come."

(Editor: Chen Yuqi Proofreader: Yan Jingning)