In the first week of the Year of the Tiger, the ChiNext board fell sharply! The latest judgment of the public fund is coming

China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei

The A-share market has been falling and falling. On February 11, the A-share market continued to decline, the performance of the Shanghai Securities And ChiNext Board was obviously differentiated, and the ChiNext index led the decline to a new low.

In the first trading week of the Year of the Tiger, A shares continued to be weak and the overall performance was not good. As of the close of trading on February 11, the Shenzhen Composite Index has been down 0.78% weekly for five consecutive weeks, and has hit a new low in nearly 16 months during the intraday on February 8; the ChiNext Index has been three consecutive weekly clouds, hitting a new low since April 14, 2021, with a cumulative decline of 5.59% in the whole week; the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.02% throughout the week, but has not been able to stand back to the five-week line.

In this regard, the public fund commented that the expected pressure of overseas liquidity is superimposed on the lack of confidence in domestic stable growth, which is an important reason for the continued adjustment of the market. The main line and direction of the short-term market are still unclear, and the market expectations and game components are relatively heavy.

However, in the medium and long term, the industry boom trend is good, and the valuation and performance growth rate are still relatively matching the performance of the core stocks in the new energy automobile industry chain, photovoltaics, high-end manufacturing, military industry, pharmaceutical consumption and other sectors.

U.S. inflation data disrupts markets

As for the reason why the market continued to fall on February 11, public funds generally believe that it is due to the latest release of US inflation data and expectations of tightening overseas liquidity.

China Merchants Fund believes that last night, the United States announced that the January CPI rose by 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated again, which is the highest level since March 1982, 7.3% higher than expected, and also higher than the previous value of 7.0%. Due to the pressure of overseas liquidity expectations and the lack of confidence in stable domestic growth, China Merchants Fund believes that this is the main reason why the A-share market continues to adjust today. Although the mainland credit data exceeded expectations, the market is still worried that the follow-up effect can continue is still doubtful.

Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund said that A shares continued the trend of Shanghai strong and deep weakness on Friday, but may be affected by the poor performance of yesterday's peripheral market, and today's major stock indexes closed down across the board.

According to the analysis of the Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund, the US inflation data disturbed the market, and the steady growth forced credit in January to exceed expectations. Yesterday, the US January CPI increased by 7.5% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 40 years, the US 10-year Treasury yield soared below 2%, investors expected the Federal Reserve to meet in March with a high probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points, currency tightening expectations heated up, and today's Asian market generally responded to the decline.

Today's ChiNext board once again made a sharp correction, with a decline of 2.84% on the day, and more than 4,000 individual stocks in the A-share market fell. Bosera Fund also believes that on the news side, the latest CPI released by the United States has reached a new high, inflation data has exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have further intensified or fuse.

Another reason is the institutional position adjustment, the valuation of the popular industries in the early stage is relatively high, the funds are switching between high and low, the short-term market's preference for stable growth plates has increased, and the weighted stocks have fallen significantly, which has also formed a certain drag on the ChiNext board.

In the view of Ping An Fund, although the newly released January social financing data exceeded expectations, the overall performance of A-shares throughout the day today is still weak, and the decline in the afternoon has accelerated. The performance of the Shanghai Securities And ChiNext Board is obviously differentiated, the early growth track fell significantly, the pharmaceutical, electrical, electronics, automobile, military and other industries fell larger, and the low valuation and stable growth related sectors were relatively good, of which coal, building materials, banks, non-banking, etc., led the increase.

The Great Wall Fund believes that it has always been optimistic about the balanced style in its outlook for 2022, and the market performance this week confirms the adaptability of this style to this year's market.

Looking back at this week, the market "crying and rising" is mainly due to the inertia of last year, many investors have high expectations for high growth and the market of the big track, and in the context of this year's tightening of global liquidity, greater domestic economic pressure, and increased market uncertainty, the high valuation plate is under pressure adjustment, and many low-key, low-valued and low-valued plates have won with safety.

In the short term, the market is not prone to a comprehensive and sustainable market

Combining the overseas market atmosphere and the promotion of stable domestic growth, fund companies are more consistent in believing that the market is not prone to a comprehensive and sustainable market in the short term, and the overall situation is still fluctuating.

Ping An Fund believes that the recent market index has been continuously adjusted, the main growth tracks in the early stage have fallen sharply, the market is expected to enter the bottoming stage in the short term, the main line and direction of the short-term market are still unclear, the market expectations and game components are relatively heavy, and the sustainability of the plate market is relatively weak.

China Merchants Fund believes that the mainland's credit opening in January exceeded expectations, but the market is still worried about structural and sustainability issues. The financial data in 2022 ushered in a good start as scheduled, and the social financing and credit data have greatly exceeded expectations, but the credit structure is currently not good, and the fastest structural improvement still needs about a quarter. Enterprise medium and long-term loans have changed the decline in the previous months and achieved a slight year-on-year increase, mainly due to the guidance of policies, banks "catch up" to launch medium- and long-term projects during the year.

China Merchants Fund noted that of the 810 billion yuan of enterprise loans that increased year-on-year, 753.8 billion yuan was contributed by short-term loans and ticket financing, accounting for 93%, indicating that the current improvement of medium- and long-term loans may be less from the active components of enterprises, and the actual financing demand is still in the early stage of "large increase in ticket financing - transfer to short-term loans - medium- and long-term loans".

Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund also said that the overseas market atmosphere is not good, coupled with the stable growth policy to take effect still need a certain period of time, in the short term the market is not easy to appear comprehensive, sustainable market.

At the same time, under the game of market turnover has not yet fully warmed up, the market lacks an obvious main line, the plate rotation may accelerate, and the industry sector with relatively high certainty of low valuation and performance improvement may be relatively more recognized by the short-term market.

In addition, yesterday Chinese Min min bank released January financial statistics and social financing data, January credit increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, and the increase in social financing also reached 6.17 trillion yuan, all of which exceeded previous market expectations. In particular, the strengthening of the credit union financing data in January shows that the steady growth policy has been specifically implemented, and the high-quality stocks related to stable growth in mining, building materials, building decoration, etc., as well as the 5G and computer-related sectors of new infrastructure have the opportunity to benefit.

Remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term trend

For the long-term operation of the market, the public fund has firm confidence. According to the analysis of Boshi Fund, the turnover of the A-share market after the Spring Festival showed a gradual upward trend, indicating that investor sentiment had picked up slightly compared with before the holiday, but the overall situation was still weak. At present, the A-share market does not have substantial bearishness, more or emotional overreaction. Northbound funds still maintain a net inflow after the holiday, indicating that overseas funds are still confident in the future trend of A-shares.

China Merchants Fund also said bluntly, optimistic about the future market. Looking ahead, on the one hand, the Fed tightened expectations or peaked in the first quarter, and the negative impact on overseas liquidity will gradually ease.

On the other hand, the positive factors will gradually be revised upwards, and the market is expected to gradually warm up. At present, local governments have a strong demand for stable growth, and many local governments have raised the growth rate of fixed asset investment targets in 2022, and with the approaching of the two sessions of the National People's Congress in March, the stable growth policy will accelerate and exert force.

Zheshang Fund FOF and Multi-Asset Management Department judged that there are still structural opportunities in A-shares, which have a certain cost performance. The downward pressure on the economy is still there, liquidity will remain loose, the overall valuation is relatively reasonable, the profit will decline slightly, and the A-share market style and structural differentiation pattern may be balanced, but it is more cost-effective than us stocks and Hong Kong stocks.

According to the analysis of China Merchants Fund, the early strong new energy and other new energy have entered the adjustment, the pro-cyclical sectors such as the real estate chain have begun to rebound, and the northbound funds have continued to flow in, and there are still structural opportunities in the market. However, since the beginning of the year, there have been differences between the market for low valuation and high growth sectors, the market lacks a clear main line, stable growth is still in the process of gradual verification, the market volatility is relatively large, can be changed from standard to low allocation.

Balanced allocation to deal with volatile market conditions

In terms of investment strategies, many fund companies believe that the drastic style switch of the A-share market is coming to an end, and recommend a balanced allocation to cope with volatile market conditions.

Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund believes that historical data show that the market driven by style conversion has a relatively short duration, on the one hand, after the rebound of low-value plates and the decline of high-valuation plates, the relative position of valuations has changed, and there may be rebalancing.

On the other hand, after entering the earnings season, the market focus will return more to the performance fundamentals and have a solid profit base, but there is still a chance for the target of a larger drawdown in valuation, and investors should adopt a more balanced layout strategy in terms of value or growth style, as well as short, medium and long-term time periods.

"Don't put your eggs in the same basket" is a far-reaching investment guide. He Yiguang, the quarterly manager of the Great Wall Fund, believes that "people cannot avoid making mistakes, but they can minimize the risk of making mistakes through flexible response and strategic balance." Opportunities often take the form of change, and to be aware of change is to seize the opportunity.

Specific to the optimistic investment main line and industry plate allocation, Ping An Fund said that in the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of core stocks in the new energy automobile industry chain, photovoltaic, high-end manufacturing, military, electronics, pharmaceutical consumption and other sectors that are in line with the direction of policy support, the industry boom trend is good, and the valuation and performance growth rate are still relatively matched.

At the same time, in the first half of the year, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the fundamentals and valuation repair opportunities of the industrial chain such as real estate and building materials driven by the stable growth policy, as well as the aquaculture and other sectors that are expected to gradually usher in the inflection point of the industrial cycle.

In terms of structural allocation, China Merchants Fund believes that the liquidity test in 2022 is not complete, the superimposed market risk appetite is low, the market will still flow to the low, and the style will accelerate to the low valuation style. In the low-value sector, extra attention should be paid to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement in 2022, grasping the main line of stable growth with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core, and the opportunities of track companies also need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite and the improvement of micro-transaction structure.

According to the analysis of Boshi Fund, the latest financial data released shows that the total social financing and credit data in January exceeded expectations, indicating that the effect of the stable growth policy has gradually emerged; the long-term financing demand of enterprises has picked up, but the demand of residents is relatively weak, which is corroborated with the current weak consumption environment. In the context of the gradual tightening of liquidity in major overseas economies, exports will also face certain difficulties this year.

Overall, the downward pressure on the domestic economy still exists, but monetary policy and liquidity are relatively friendly, do not worry too much about the trend of follow-up A shares, there will still be no shortage of structural opportunities, benefit from the support of stable growth policies, and the certainty of short-term infrastructure sectors is higher.

From a medium- and long-term perspective, high-quality leading enterprises in the fields of science and technology, advanced manufacturing, and new energy that benefit from industrial upgrading also have good investment value.

Edit: Joey

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