The high-profile Tesla announced its fourth quarter and full year earnings, and the results were clearly as expected - Tesla had the best quarterly earnings in history.
Of course, in the context of the current U.S. stock market, especially the weak technology stocks, Tesla wants to rise sharply, obviously needing very more than expected performance, otherwise, Tesla's things will be relatively certain.
Tesla made a lot of money, but the stock price was not powerful
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla's total revenue reached $17.719 billion (about 111.994 billion yuan), an increase of 65% from $10.744 billion (about 67.908 billion yuan) in the same period of 2020.
Among them, Tesla's most important automobile business revenue was 15.967 billion US dollars (about 100.921 billion yuan), an increase of 71% year-on-year.
In terms of net profit, Tesla's GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached $2.321 billion (about 14.670 billion yuan), up 760% year-on-year, and the operating margin in the fourth quarter reached 14.7%.
Meanwhile, Tesla's gross profit for the fourth quarter of 2021 reached $4.847 billion (about 30.636 billion yuan), an increase of 135% year-on-year, and GAAP gross margin was 27.4%. Among them, the gross profit margin of automobiles reached 30.6%, which is not much of a change compared with 30.5% in the third quarter of 2021.
From a full-year perspective, Tesla's total revenue for the full year of 2021 reached $53.823 billion (about 340.193 billion yuan), an increase of about 71% year-on-year.
But Tesla's stock price performed modestly, soaring more than 8% at one point on Wednesday, but then diving to around the 900 mark. After the earnings report, Tesla fell 0.8% after hours and plunged 6% at one point, as low as apparently investors believe that the earnings report is at best mediocre and not too much than expected.
Three reasons to analyze Tesla's stock price
1. Macro-driven
First, Tesla, as a trillion-dollar company with a market capitalization, is inevitably disturbed by macro and monetary policy.
On Wednesday, January 26, EST, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee FOMC announced its January interest rate decision, keeping near-zero interest rates and reducing the size of bond purchases unchanged, while sending a strong signal that the next meeting in March this year may decide to start raising interest rates, and is expected to complete Taper as scheduled in March.
Powell mentioned that the Fed will shrink its balance sheet in a predictable way, and while the (overall) magnitude of the rate hike has not yet been decided, the possibility of raising rates at every foMC meeting is not ruled out. It also said that (currently) there is a need for a massive scale reduction.
Subsequently, the Dow fell by a thousand points at one point, and Tesla rose from about 8% at one point, and then plunged to around $900. Tesla's january decline has exceeded 11%, which is comparable to the NASDAQ.'s performance.
With current expectations for a five-time Fed rate hike in 2022 rising, it's clear that a quick rate hike would hurt growth stocks even more, and Tesla is no exception, with most of the gains and cash flows of growth companies generated in the distant future — when discounted at higher interest rates, future cash flows become worthless in today's dollars.
Even, some analysts pointed out that if the dollar weakens and foreign investors will bring more money, giants such as Apple and Tesla will benefit.
2, there are no new models
On the earnings call, Musk said Tesla would not launch a Cyber truck this year and would not develop a $25,000 car now.
Obviously, this is disappointing for investors. Because, with the rise of emerging electric vehicle companies and the rapid intervention of traditional car companies, Tesla's market share will inevitably be eroded.
Without the Sale of the Cyber truck electric pickup this year, Tesla could cede the field to Ford, which is ready to deliver the all-electric F-150 Lighting pickup in the first half of this year. Ford also recently said it plans to triple production of potential Tesla Model 3 and Y rival Mustang Mach-E, which is expected to produce more than 200,000 mach-Es by 2023.
In addition, Tesla is also subject to competition from China's new car-making forces "Wei Xiaoli", The American start-up electric vehicle companies Rivian, Lucid and so on.
Interestingly, Musk also angrily replied: "Investors are not fully aware of the importance of fully autonomous driving." "Driverless car technology will become so brilliant that over time it will make the company's cars more attractive, leading to the expected high sales, with or without new models."
3, the supply chain problem is difficult to solve
Although Tesla delivered nearly a million vehicles in 2021, that doesn't mean Tesla didn't run into supply chain issues.
Tesla warned that supply chain shortages, which have led to lower sales at most other major automakers, will also squeeze Tesla.
"With supply chains becoming the main limiting factory, our own factories have been operating below capacity for several consecutive quarters, which is likely to continue into 2022."
Gene Munster, founder of Loup Ventures, said: "In the current environment, comments on risk factors are playing a different role. "As long as there is uncertainty in the future, investors will be a little frightened."
Where does the future go?
While investors are concerned about tesla's automotive supply chain, new models, and so on, Musk is clearly more concerned about the FSD system and the humanoid robot Optimus.
But the market is not Musk's decision, and the growth of a company will inevitably encounter a lot of challenges.
Lindsey Bell, strategist at Ally Invest Securities, sees Tesla's size in an environment of rising interest rates that will only make it more vulnerable to sharp market volatility.
Tesla's expected price-to-earnings ratio is 94 times, and a fiercely competitive market environment could hurt its pricing power.
David Jones, chief market strategist at Capital.com, said: "If 2022 is finally a year of greater caution for some of the biggest names in history, it's hard to see why Tesla isn't getting caught up in it."
Overall, Wall Street analysts don't think Tesla will rise this year, with Analysts chasing Bloomberg targeting Tesla at an average price of $953.
According to technical analysts, Tesla's 60-day moving average price is $1060, and the 120-day moving average price is $920. If Tesla breaks below the 120-day moving average, it means that it may continue to be weak, but if it can break the 60-day moving average, Tesla may perform better in the medium term.